Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[cjrciadt]

GFNI ends over me, I see a future NE trend coming near FL not good.

[markymark8]

Curious as to how you can determine she has a lot of tornados in her??? I understand what a vortex/vorieces are, but they are not tornados in this instance, at least not in the eye.

I know all hurricanes have tornadic activity but have u ever noticed with Hurricanes with an eye full of these vortexes always have alot more reported tornados when they make landfall compared to a storm that doesnt. Hurricanes that have this feature seem to always do more intense damage. I know I am not a pro but after tracking and watching storms for 22 years I have seen this trend with this type of eyewall with these more intense hurricanes and they seem to spawn off more tornado warnings. Maybe I am wrong. It just seemed interesting to me after seeing alot of different looking structured Hurricanes over the years that these types produce more tornados. If someone would like to comment on this that would be awesome. I would like to know if there is any truth at all to this???

[6SpeedTA95]

That eyewall looks pretty badass on IR and WV.

[vbhoutex]

Curious as to how you can determine she has a lot of tornados in her??? I understand what a vortex/vorieces are, but they are not tornados in this instance, at least not in the eye.

I know all hurricanes have tornadic activity but have u ever noticed with Hurricanes with an eye full of these vortexes always have alot more reported tornados when they make landfall compared to a storm that doesnt. Hurricanes that have this feature seem to always do more intense damage. I know I am not a pro but after tracking and watching storms for 22 years I have seen this trend with this type of eyewall with these more intense hurricanes and they seem to spawn off more tornado warnings. Maybe I am wrong. It just seemed interesting to me after seeing alot of different looking structured Hurricanes over the years that these types produce more tornados. If someone would like to comment on this that would be awesome. I would like to know if there is any truth at all to this???

Normally those tornados are to the N or E of the center due to land interaction and not on the W sides. Any pro-mets care to chime in on this one?

[AZS]

First reports from Cancun:

"El ferry Quintana Roo se quedó varado en Puerto Morelos donde rescataron a cinco personas"


"La principales cruces y avenidas de Cancún ya se encuentran inundadas"


One ferry boat turned in Puerto Morelos, 5 people rescued

Main streets of Cancun flooded

[THead]

That eyewall looks pretty badass on IR and WV.

No doubt, I wouldn't want to be in ANY side of that. People talking about weaker portions of this eye-wall, really splitting hairs....its all bad.

[THead]

First reports from Cancun:

"El ferry Quintana Roo se quedó varado en Puerto Morelos donde rescataron a cinco personas"


"La principales cruces y avenidas de Cancún ya se encuentran inundadas"


One ferry boat turned in Puerto Morelos, 5 people rescued

Main streets of Cancun flooded

There's still people on boats there?!

[vbhoutex]

Looks like an ERC may be starting again. Definitely signs of another outer eyewall forming on the latest radar with the inner one startig to shrink. Am I seeing things?

IMO just an illusion as the radar cannot penetrate those torrential rains.

No, the eyewall near Cancun is noticeably weaker than the part further. That's not attenuation. Plus the eyewall isn't nice and circular - it zigzags - and there's some rainshowers in the eye.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 211504
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

WHETHER DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OR SOME OTHER FACTORS... THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED
EARLIER THIS MORNING... BUT THAT DID NOT LAST LONG. THE RING OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECONSTITUTED AROUND THE ENTIRE 30 N MI
WIDE EYE... WHICH HAS BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AND WARMER IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CANCUN RADAR DEPICTS A VERY SOLID OUTER
EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... AND THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY WEAKER BUT
PERHAPS NOT AS WEAK AS IT SEEMS ON RADAR DUE TO ATTENUATION.
PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AND AMSU DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS DEPICT THE OUTER EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 45 N MI...
AND EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA CONTAIN WIND MAXIMA AT RADII OF ABOUT 20
AND 45 N MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL WILL CONTRACT
AND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM... BUT EYEWALLS WITH
THIS LARGE OF A DIAMETER SOMETIMES REMAIN STEADY-STATE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z DID NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT... BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE RING REFORMED.

[AZS]

First reports from Cancun:

"El ferry Quintana Roo se quedó varado en Puerto Morelos donde rescataron a cinco personas"


"La principales cruces y avenidas de Cancún ya se encuentran inundadas"


One ferry boat turned in Puerto Morelos, 5 people rescued

Main streets of Cancun flooded

There's still people on boats there?!

it sounds stupid but things like that still happen....


Cancun under a 1,5 feet of water

[skysummit]

And Cozumel is in the eye....


http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/1158/2867dm.jpg

[littlevince]

First reports from Cancun:

"El ferry Quintana Roo se quedó varado en Puerto Morelos donde rescataron a cinco personas"

"La principales cruces y avenidas de Cancún ya se encuentran inundadas"
One ferry boat turned in Puerto Morelos, 5 people rescued
Main streets of Cancun flooded

There's still people on boats there?!

it sounds stupid but things like that still happen....

Cancun under a 1,5 feet of water

I can understand this, for example, 75,000 people lives in Cozumel, and the only way to get out is by Ferry. And it's not easy and fast evacuate 75,000 by boat.
Sorry for my bad english.

[skysummit]

Well the door is open...will she go through it? Hmm...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm6.GIF

[THead]

First reports from Cancun:

"El ferry Quintana Roo se quedó varado en Puerto Morelos donde rescataron a cinco personas"

"La principales cruces y avenidas de Cancún ya se encuentran inundadas"
One ferry boat turned in Puerto Morelos, 5 people rescued
Main streets of Cancun flooded

There's still people on boats there?!

it sounds stupid but things like that still happen....

Cancun under a 1,5 feet of water

I can understand this, for example, 75,000 people lives in Cozumel, and the only way to get out is by Ferry. And it's not easy and fast evacuate 75,000 by boat.
Sorry for my bad english.

I can understand it too, but what I can't understand is why would they be evac'ing by boat when the eye is like 50 miles away. Cancun has been in the bulls-eye for days now. Seems like the locals there should know better, have dealt with big storms plenty before. Its sad. I hope everyone is ok.

[Flakeys]

Puerto Morales is where the Cozumel vehicle ferry lands.

[AZS]

* Gas tank explosion on Playa Del Carmen, 8 wounded, 3 in serious condition.

* Playa Del Carmen under a feet of Water

[skysummit]

That northern coast of Cozumel must be getting severly eroded...

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/2315 ... ast7vx.jpg[/img]

[jpigott]

well, the moment of truth for FLA may be drawing nigh - Is Wilma going to just make a brush pass or is she going deep into the belly of the Yucatan

[THead]

well, the moment of truth for FLA may be drawing nigh - Is Wilma going to just make a brush pass or is she going deep into the belly of the Yucatan

Looks like she's right on track, going right through the tip of the YP. She is still moving though, no sign of a stall as yet. I know this url is posted, but if you check the box that says forecast points, you can see its pretty much right on the NHC track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[Canelaw99]

What is the time difference supposed to be between the forecast points??

[chris_fit]

Most if not all 12Z models have shifted, albeit slightly, to the left, or north, at landfall in FL