Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[THead]

What is the time difference supposed to be between the forecast points??

I was just wondering that myself. I'm trying to figure out how long it'll be over land. It looks like if it continues to move at approx the pace it has been moving the last 6-8 hours, and if it stays on NHC track, it should be over the YP for about 6-8 hours, maybe a little more.

[SouthFloridawx]

I wonder if she will stall after she gets across the yuchatan? Will she stall in the warm sst's of the southern central gom? Well will see by tonight. I guess if it doesn't stall then we will have to hurry up and evac here in florida. shear is still low in the southern gom where she will be for a couple of days.

[THead]

I know the eye being over land is key, but if it stays on the NHC track, a very large portion of the circulation will remain over water, and possibly even a portion of the E-NE eye-wall.

[CHRISTY]

i think this afternoon and tonight is the moment of truth for us here in southflorida..so far no stall and it may just continue to move over and be out in the gulf of mexico 2morrow..

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 86.5W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 21.10.2005 20.2N 86.5W INTENSE

00UTC 22.10.2005 20.5N 86.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.10.2005 20.4N 86.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.10.2005 21.2N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.10.2005 22.2N 86.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.10.2005 23.7N 85.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.10.2005 25.4N 82.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.10.2005 27.9N 77.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL

12z UKMET

[storms in NC]

I just ran a vis loop and looks like she has turn north more. I would think she will miss the next mark to the right. I still say most of her eye will be over water. and I don't think there will be a stall. She may slow up some but no stall

[floridahurricaneguy]

Looks like models shifted slightly north. I cant believe LBARs consistency. Wouldnt it be amazing if its right. I think we might see more North trend in models. Anyone agree?

Matt

[chris_fit]

Looks like models shifted slightly north. I cant believe LBARs consistency. Wouldnt it be amazing if its right. I think we might see more North trend in models. Anyone agree?

Matt

Already begun. Check last two runs of most models, they shifted slightly north both times.

[skysummit]

Looks like models shifted slightly north. I cant believe LBARs consistency. Wouldnt it be amazing if its right. I think we might see more North trend in models. Anyone agree?

Matt

Yup...they're getting closer and closer to my prediction!

[jkt21787]

Looks like models shifted slightly north. I cant believe LBARs consistency. Wouldnt it be amazing if its right. I think we might see more North trend in models. Anyone agree?

Matt

If LBAR is right, I will stop posting on this board. LBAR has never been out on its own and ended up being right.

[WeatherEmperor]

which models are you guys talking about?

<RICKY>

[caneman]

Looks like models shifted slightly north. I cant believe LBARs consistency. Wouldnt it be amazing if its right. I think we might see more North trend in models. Anyone agree?

Matt

If LBAR is right, I will stop posting on this board. LBAR has never been out on its own and ended up being right.

Been callin Sarasota for awhile now. Commented on how accurate and consistant LBAR and Nogaps and GFS seems to be. Some posters have been huggin the UKMET and GFDL who have been horrible so far. In fact, if I've been able to pick up on it I'm surprised NHC hasn't and has remained true to the GFDL. Lets see if that changes at 5. Unbeilevable if LBAR is right considering the abuse it gets(in must cases justifiable).

[SouthFloridawx]

i see the more northerly component if you zoom in on the vis floater loop.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like models shifted slightly north. I cant believe LBARs consistency. Wouldnt it be amazing if its right. I think we might see more North trend in models. Anyone agree?

Matt

If LBAR is right, I will stop posting on this board. LBAR has never been out on its own and ended up being right.

Been callin Sarasota for awhile now. Commented on how accurate and consistant LBAR and Nogaps and GFS seems to be. Some posters have been huggin the UKMET and GFDL who have been horrible so far. In fact, if I've been able to pick up on it I'm surprised NHC hasn't and has remained true to the GFDL. Lets see if that changes at 5. Unbeilevable if LBAR is right considering the abuse it gets(in must cases justifiable).

GFDL was dead on with Katrina and a few others this year. The LBAR has been off on most all the storms.

[ronjon]

Looks like models shifted slightly north. I cant believe LBARs consistency. Wouldnt it be amazing if its right. I think we might see more North trend in models. Anyone agree?

Matt

If LBAR is right, I will stop posting on this board. LBAR has never been out on its own and ended up being right.

Been callin Sarasota for awhile now. Commented on how accurate and consistant LBAR and Nogaps and GFS seems to be. Some posters have been huggin the UKMET and GFDL who have been horrible so far. In fact, if I've been able to pick up on it I'm surprised NHC hasn't and has remained true to the GFDL. Lets see if that changes at 5. Unbeilevable if LBAR is right considering the abuse it gets(in must cases justifiable).

You'll notice that LBAR is faster than all other models in putting Wilma off of Pinellas County in 48 hours. IF, & this would be a huge IF, Wilma doesn't stall and continues on its N-NW heading, then the 2nd trough would pick her up and send her along the LBAR path toward Tampa. I don't buy it now but I might in another 12 hours.

[caneman]

Looks like models shifted slightly north. I cant believe LBARs consistency. Wouldnt it be amazing if its right. I think we might see more North trend in models. Anyone agree?

Matt

If LBAR is right, I will stop posting on this board. LBAR has never been out on its own and ended up being right.

Been callin Sarasota for awhile now. Commented on how accurate and consistant LBAR and Nogaps and GFS seems to be. Some posters have been huggin the UKMET and GFDL who have been horrible so far. In fact, if I've been able to pick up on it I'm surprised NHC hasn't and has remained true to the GFDL. Lets see if that changes at 5. Unbeilevable if LBAR is right considering the abuse it gets(in must cases justifiable).

GFDL was dead on with Katrina and a few others this year. The LBAR has been off on most all the storms.

you're right but is been pianfully obvious that UKMEt and GFDL have been off for this one so my point being is maybe NOGAPS, GFS and LBAR should have been given more credence

[floridahurricaneguy]

yea, you never know, lbar still has it hitting in the current cone of risk. The thing about GFDL and UKMET this time is there not consistent so far for more then 1 or 2 days.

Matt

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the aircraft data, it appears as if Wilma reached land as a category 3 hurricane, with winds of 125 m.p.h. Not as bad as feared, but still worse than Roxanne of 1995

[THead]

i see the more northerly component if you zoom in on the vis floater loop.

I'll be.....looks like you're correct. We'll have to see if it holds.

[Nimbus]

southfloridawx2005 wrote:

i see the more northerly component if you zoom in on the vis floater loop.

I hope for Floridas sake that is just a wobble and not a new heading.
Wilma has gained a lot of latitude than forecast in the last 12 hours.
If the the forecast stall does not occur soon the models are going to have speed up the track.