Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[jkt21787]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

I dont think so she is basically almost cat 3 already. At the most she will likeley be only a strong cat 1 when she hits florida or if she amazingly holds together that well a weak cat 2 IF it does exactly what the GFDL shows.[/u]

She is a pretty solid cat 4 right now. New recon data confirms this (eyewall dropsonde suggested 118kt SURFACE winds)

Derek has it down to 125 as of 2 PM.

Don't care honestly. NHC keeps it at 140 and the surface dropsonde is still valid as far as I'm concerned, which concurs with the 140 report.

[x-y-no]

Help me out here , I click the link and do not see the "Trop Fcst Pts" check box. I see across the top: county, roads, lat/lon, winds, severe watch/warn, MSLP (2), Radar, NWS Front. Where is the box for the forecast points?

I have the same problem in Firefox, but in IE the checkbox is there. Don't know what causes that.

It's a pain, because I don't like IE.

Hmm...everything thing works fine for me in Firefox. Do you have the latest update?

Think so ...

Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; en-US; rv:1.7.12) Gecko/20050915 Firefox/1.0.7

[CHRISTY]

it the very last image wilma looked like it jumped to the north ?can some look at a close up satilite picture and tell what they see???

[Foladar0]

Whether it's a wobble or not, right now she is heading more west into the Yucatan.....effectively committing suicide. Unless something changes soon, I don't think there will be much left by the time it gets here.

I hope your right. The NHC has it entering the Yucatan as a Cat 4 and exiting as a cat 3. Forecast as a Cat 2 approaching Florida.

Click on the "Trop Fcst Pts" check box of this satellite loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looking at this link, it is right on track, and maybe a little fast. It is very close to hitting the 12 hour point from the 11 AM.

I agree, right on track and maybe slightly faster.

Help me out here , I click the link and do not see the "Trop Fcst Pts" check box. I see across the top: county, roads, lat/lon, winds, severe watch/warn, MSLP (2), Radar, NWS Front. Where is the box for the forecast points?

Welcome to the site btw, another Homestead person!

[skysummit]

Tampa....here you go:


http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/5663/al2420059yv.jpg

[cjrciadt]

127 found at the surface by the latest dropsonde. or 146mph

[fci]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

I dont think so. She is basically almost cat 3 already. At the most she will likeley be only a strong cat 1 when she hits Florida or if she amazingly holds together that well a weak cat 2 IF it does exactly what the GFDL shows.

This is why I say a cat3.
Part of the eye will stay off the coast and then when she moves away from land she is still in low shear and can build back to a strong 5. When she does hit the shears it will not put her down to a cat 1. She will be over very warm water and moving faster. so that is why I say a cat3. I hope I am very very wrong cause I have two of my kids that live in Ft Myers and a brother and his family. But just hold on till sat after noon and we should know more.

NC:
None of us really knows what the intensity will be but the discussions from the NHC and Derek/John speak of major weakening and a very hostile environment in the Gulf.
NHC at 11 AM:
"The new intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory in steadily weakening Wilma over the Gulf of
Mexico due primarily to increasing shear."
Where Derek/John of FL to be prepared for a "major" 'Cane they now say "Wilma is still expected to impact Florida as a hurricane.".
A pretty big decrease in expected strength.

This thing does not look to be a Cat 3 when it escapes the Yucatan let alone face teh cooler waters and shear over the Gulf.

No, In my opinion, we are looking at a Cat 1 tops when it gets to Fl, IF it ever does.

[gtalum]

It's interesting to note that A98E has come into line with most fo the models and LBAR is the lone holdout for a Tampa/Central Florida hit.

[jkt21787]

Tampa....here you go:


http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/5663/al2420059yv.jpg

I see one model going to Tampa, and I'm sure its the LBAR again. How anyone can justify a threat of a direct hit there or suggest a northward trend in the models, I don't know.

[THead]

I don't know if it's a stall or just a 'non-jog', but she seems to be hitting the brakes:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Was just looking at that, it seems like the eye is contracting some, so it may be an optical illusion. Ever want to just speed up time?! I cant wait to see what this thing does.

[fci]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

thats a bold statement

So is saying they will see a TS or weak cat 1.

"So is saying they will see a TS or weak cat 1.[/quote]"

Actually not a particularly bold statement if you look at the experts statements.

I can't find anyone but you predicting a Cat 3 hitting Fla.

[seaswing]

I don't know if it's a stall or just a 'non-jog', but she seems to be hitting the brakes:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Was just looking at that, it seems like the eye is contracting some, so it may be an optical illusion. Ever want to just speed up time?! I cant wait to see what this thing does.

It needs to do something! what, we are going on 140 pages for this storm now?

[jkt21787]

Actually not a particularly bold statement if you look at the experts statements.

I have not seen one forecast of a TS at FL landfall, and no expert opinions of it being a weak one either. All are for stronger cat 1 landfalls or cat 2. Again, going only by pro met or expert opinions...

[CHRISTY]

can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

[Myersgirl]

can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Mabey an interaction with land?

[CronkPSU]

Tampa....here you go:


http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/5663/al2420059yv.jpg

I see one model going to Tampa, and I'm sure its the LBAR again. How anyone can justify a threat of a direct hit there or suggest a northward trend in the models, I don't know.

it's the wacky LBAr...and it really isn't that crazy, it is only a hundred miles or so away form the other models, just a slight change in the angle would put it there

[seaswing]

probably a wobble

[skysummit]

can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Yes...but back to the NW with the 2002z image. Hmm....and again to the N in the 2010 image I believe.

[bigmike]

Tampa....here you go:


http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/5663/al2420059yv.jpg

I see one model going to Tampa, and I'm sure its the LBAR again. How anyone can justify a threat of a direct hit there or suggest a northward trend in the models, I don't know.

LBAR is junk as is the CLP's models. Bye Bye Naples

[Damar91]

Christy, I saw that too, but I can't tell if that was a north jog, or Wilma hitting the brakes. She must see those mountains and got scared!