Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[tracyswfla]

Didn't Charley go from Category Two to Category Four just off the Florida Coast?

Yes very quick intensification.

Yes and the SST's were much warmer, it was August!

[6SpeedTA95]

Didn't Charley go from Category Two to Category Four just off the Florida Coast?

Yes very quick intensification.

Do the water temperatures pose the threat to form a similar situation, maybe a Category One then jump to strong two or weak three?

SST's are conducive to a cat3 or cat4 storm but it would have to be moving very quickly and in a pretty clean environment.

TCHP - Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential for those who dont know is like a total measurement of potential heat energy in the water. Similar to cape values in the atmosphere when predicting severe thunderstorms. Just TCHP is water related. The TCHP around the florida peninsula is very low and a slow moving storm would more than likely fizzle over the area making landfall as a cat1 or TS.





There's the TCHP and SST info...here's a link for those who wanna see some more information reguarding them...
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

[Blown Away]

If it is more than a N wobble the Ukmet model will look pretty good.

[jpigott]

anyone notice in the latest IR images Wilma is taking on a SW-NE orientation, is the approaching front starting to pull her up

[CHRISTY]

NHC says after it leaves the yucatan it could stronger again.. read discussion.

[vbhoutex]

Didn't Charley go from Category Two to Category Four just off the Florida Coast?

Yes very quick intensification.

Do the water temperatures pose the threat to form a similar situation, maybe a Category One then jump to strong two or weak three?

Very doubtful. As said above the waters were much warmer then and Wilma will be moving from a much warmer water environment into a cooler one besides of course the effects of her time over the Yucatan. Not saying that she can't or won't strengthen between Cancun and eventual landfall in FL(she more than likely will) but don't expect explosive strengthening like we saw with Charley.

[Myersgirl]

anyone notice in the latest IR images Wilma is taking on a SW-NE orientation, is the approaching front starting to pull her up

Yes, now that you mentioned it, that it how it appears to me also

[thermos]

NHC says after it leaves the yucatan it could stronger again.. read discussion.

Lately their discussions have just turned into guesses or multiple theories of what the storm might do. They have really been in the dark with this one. Rita and Katrina forecasts were much more accurate.

[6SpeedTA95]

anyone notice in the latest IR images Wilma is taking on a SW-NE orientation, is the approaching front starting to pull her up

Looking at the last three frames on NHC WV loop I see a NW then N and then NW again, I do not see a NE component yet. That western eyewall waslooking horrible briefly on the WV though.

[inotherwords]

I think the new Forecast intensity is WAY to low, weakening it to a 1 over the Yucatan!?

That does seem hard to believe at this point. We'll have to see though, as it has definitely slowed down the last few frames.

It the eye is overland for more than 24hrs that seems pretty reasonable.

Agreed, just don't see how its going to stay over the very small tip of the YP for 24 hours.

I dont know how viable that prediction was either. In fact it seems somewhat unlikely, but you have to admit this thing has not sped up and myself and a lot of folks were thinking it would begin gaining momentum wednesday night and it didn't do it. The speed/movement remain very unpredictible with this storm simply because of all the potential steering elements that are all timing dependant. She could miss the connection with the front and upper level low and basically have free run at the GOM or she could get out just ahead of the front (ie not stalling over the yucatan) and make landfall a little further north of its current projections or it could simply do as predicted.

Ft. Myers met just said that Wilma "will be" over Yucatan for a minimum of 24 hours which means good news for FL. Still anticipating a SW FL landfall near Naples around 2 p.m. on Monday. Says winds in Ft. Myers will be TS force with gusts to about 70.

Sarasota met (Harrigan) just said at 5:20 p.m. that a high pressure ridge has built along the trough to keep it over land for at least 24 hours, and if it's any longer Wilma could weaken to a TS over Yucatan. And that NHC says that models are in "remarkable" agreement that models take it into Naples area. Met says that it will very likely make landfall as a Category 1. Says Sarasota is in a "secondary" risk area for direct hit. Says if it hits south of here, we won't get much of a storm surge.

Don't kill the messenger Just reporting what I'm hearing from locals.

[CHRISTY]

looks to me that she's being pulled to the north...

[Myersgirl]

anyone notice in the latest IR images Wilma is taking on a SW-NE orientation, is the approaching front starting to pull her up

Looking at the last three frames on NHC WV loop I see a NW then N and then NW again, I do not see a NE component yet. That western eyewall waslooking horrible briefly on the WV though.

I think he meant the composure of the storm as a whole, not the direction of movement

[skysummit]

looks to me that she's being pulled to the north...

She hasn't started moving yet. She's been pretty much stalled since 1630z....about 4 hours now.

[bigmike]

Does anyone even believe the 24+ hours over land forecast? The cold front is already in Texas. And they've pretty much botched this forecast completely up to this point. Remember it was originally supposed to be in Florida tomorrow. Pretty lousy prediction that turned out to be.

Actually the cold front will be through Destin tomorrow morning. If anybody wants to read a good discussion from a local nws office go to the nws website and punch in ruskin florida. One of the best and most informative around concerning Wilma

[vbhoutex]

I think the new Forecast intensity is WAY to low, weakening it to a 1 over the Yucatan!?

That does seem hard to believe at this point. We'll have to see though, as it has definitely slowed down the last few frames.

It the eye is overland for more than 24hrs that seems pretty reasonable.

Agreed, just don't see how its going to stay over the very small tip of the YP for 24 hours.

I dont know how viable that prediction was either. In fact it seems somewhat unlikely, but you have to admit this thing has not sped up and myself and a lot of folks were thinking it would begin gaining momentum wednesday night and it didn't do it. The speed/movement remain very unpredictible with this storm simply because of all the potential steering elements that are all timing dependant. She could miss the connection with the front and upper level low and basically have free run at the GOM or she could get out just ahead of the front (ie not stalling over the yucatan) and make landfall a little further north of its current projections or it could simply do as predicted.

When one is moving at 5 miles per hour and has only 50 miles to go that would take 10 hours so Wilma could easily take that long over the Yuc or even a little longer depending on when she really starts to feel the influence of the first trough which is approaching and begins bending more N. I do not see her having free run of the GOM because there is a stronger trough coming in behind this one which will be into the GOM by Sunday night. If the first one doesn't catch her the second one surely will.(Obviously nothing is set in stone, but????)

[6SpeedTA95]

anyone notice in the latest IR images Wilma is taking on a SW-NE orientation, is the approaching front starting to pull her up

Looking at the last three frames on NHC WV loop I see a NW then N and then NW again, I do not see a NE component yet. That western eyewall waslooking horrible briefly on the WV though.

I think he meant the composure of the storm as a whole, not the direction of movement

Oh, sorry for the confusion the NE portion of the storm is definately looking the best at the moment.

[CHRISTY]

NHC its possible for it to get stronger once it leaves the ucatan...

[6SpeedTA95]

When one is moving at 5 miles per hour and has only 50 miles to go that would take 10 hours so Wilma could easily take that long over the Yuc or even a little longer depending on when she really starts to feel the influence of the first trough which is approaching and begins bending more N. I do not see her having free run of the GOM because there is a stronger trough coming in behind this one which will be into the GOM by Sunday night. If the first one doesn't catch her the second one surely will.(Obviously nothing is set in stone, but????)

Yeah its definately still up in the air, just saying so far seems like this has been a big guessing game.

[tracyswfla]

NHC its possible for it to get stronger once it leaves the ucatan...

HUH! NO NO NO

[vbhoutex]

NHC says after it leaves the yucatan it could stronger again.. read discussion.

Lately their discussions have just turned into guesses or multiple theories of what the storm might do. They have really been in the dark with this one. Rita and Katrina forecasts were much more accurate.

Wrong! They have been very accurate so far with Wilma also. What is in queation is what will happen later, which is always in question. They are trying to let everyone know what they are looking at in making their determinations down the road. They have been spot on so far with Wilma.