Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Scorpion]

Still calling for a cat4 Boca?

What's wrong with calling for a Cat 4. It still has a closed wall and a core.

[gatorcane]

CAT 4 by tomorrow afternoon.

[artist]

from FLorida Eoc (per Kevin Cho)- thanks!-

- Hurricane force winds extend out 85 miles, and tropical storm force winds 200 miles. This makes the storm about 400 miles wide in total. Winds will begin affecting the Keys and then SW Florida beginning in the next 12 to 24 hours.
- The intensity is still extremely uncertain, it is possible that areas of the Keys and Southwest Florida will be impacted directly with a land falling category 3 or above hurricane, or simply a tropical storm. At the current time a strong category 2 storm is expected from the Florida State Government, however officials urge SW Floridians and Key residents to prepare for a category 3, and possibly even a category 4 hurricane. However, they stress it's very unlikely that this storm will make landfall as a storm stronger than category 3.
- Officials want to emphasize that this is not Charley. Those who remember this storm cannot compare Wilma to the 2004 Storm that devastated parts of SW Florida. This storm is much larger and will affect a much larger area with hurricane force winds. A storm surge is extremely dangerous and will definitely affect SW Florida and the Keys.
- The Treasure Coast and South Florida will be under the highest threat for Tornado activity, this hurricane is likely to cause more tornados than normally found in Tropical Cyclones.
- 4 to 8 and in some cases a foot of rain are likely in the Peninsula of Florida.

[THead]

okay I'll rephrase because you are right the pressure is rising.

However, she has alot of energy and the symmetry is getting better. Convection is increasing over the eastern quad. The storm is "expanding" in convection again as seen by the infrared.

So once her eye is fully over water she should really intensify I'm afraid.

Agreed, its going to come off the coast about 50 miles from where it was 150mph yeaterday, in about the same conditions. I don't know why alot of people think it won't get back to say around 140mph at least in the first 12-24 after she re-emerges over water.

[rainydaze]

I am definetly nervous about the tornados.....this is so unsettling...not knowing what conditions we are going to have. Even the EOC says anywhere from TS to Cat 3....

[LanceW]

Still calling for a cat4 Boca?

What's wrong with calling for a Cat 4. It still has a closed wall and a core.

And why do you feel it necessary to call him out like that? He is stating his opinion, take it or leave it.

[feederband]

I think once she gets away from Yuca she will come out guns a blazing..Not saying she will be one at landfall but I would not be surprised to see her get back to a Cat 4 status at some point.. IMO..

[wxwatcher91]

I'm gonna say peaking at 150mph in the GOM and then making landfall at 115mph

[thermos]

The NHC has nailed another one. Congrats to them. Looks like Wilma might not exit the Yucatan till tonight since she is basically stationary. She is now a cat 2 and might be a strong 1 before she gets back in the gulf. The longer she stays on land the better chance Florida will only deal with a Cat 1 maybe even a weak one before its over with . Nothing has been wrong with the computer models as well. Most of them all pointed out this stall which is happening. I believe the GFDL will be the one closest to floridas landfall. Looks like a Fort Myers will get the brunt which is bad because they are prone to bad surge even if it is a weak storm. Nothing is changing and no suprises it looks like as well. The forecast models did great considering all the atmosphere changes that were and are going on to the north and ahead of the storm. They were pretty darn good job not to mention the NHC had it first hugging the coast and staying just offshore which almost happened too. The model runs after that then changed for a stall and it happened. Now we wait and see when she gets back in the Gulf and how much or if at all can she strengthen some more before paying a visit to the sunshine state. The ONLY ERRORS in Wilmas forecast will be the intensity if anything and that is due to not enough funding to get that dealio alot better in the coming years hopefully.

No. The NHC had it as far west as 87.6 at one point and were forced to back off on that forecast. Do not give credit where it is not due.

[bucman1]

Boca,

Keep giving those opinions ,don't stop!!!

[bucman1]

Boca,

Keep giving those opinions ,don't stop!!!

[thermos]

It would be incredible if Wilma strengthened back to a strong Cat 3 or 4. But what posters like DerekOrt seem to be forgetting is that this is the <I>2005 Hurricane Season</I>.

[WindRunner]

I think once she gets away from Yuca she will come out guns a blazing..Not saying she will be one at landfall but I would not be surprised to see her get back to a Cat 4 status at some point.. IMO..

Exactly!

[storms in NC]

Does any one know how many miles she is from the coast?

I am sorry. But I mean from the Yucatan coast

[6SpeedTA95]

Does any one know how many miles she is from the coast?

roughly 400 miles SW of the keys

[theworld]

Does any one know how many miles she is from the coast?

Less than 10 from E., less than 50 from N.

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?la ... gitude=-87

[jamima]

Do you guys really think she is going to be anymore then a tropical storm when she hits fl? Shes really starting to weaken!!

[leonardo]

The NHC has nailed another one. Congrats to them. Looks like Wilma might not exit the Yucatan till tonight since she is basically stationary. She is now a cat 2 and might be a strong 1 before she gets back in the gulf. The longer she stays on land the better chance Florida will only deal with a Cat 1 maybe even a weak one before its over with . Nothing has been wrong with the computer models as well. Most of them all pointed out this stall which is happening. I believe the GFDL will be the one closest to floridas landfall. Looks like a Fort Myers will get the brunt which is bad because they are prone to bad surge even if it is a weak storm. Nothing is changing and no suprises it looks like as well. The forecast models did great considering all the atmosphere changes that were and are going on to the north and ahead of the storm. They were pretty darn good job not to mention the NHC had it first hugging the coast and staying just offshore which almost happened too. The model runs after that then changed for a stall and it happened. Now we wait and see when she gets back in the Gulf and how much or if at all can she strengthen some more before paying a visit to the sunshine state. The ONLY ERRORS in Wilmas forecast will be the intensity if anything and that is due to not enough funding to get that dealio alot better in the coming years hopefully.

No. The NHC had it as far west as 87.6 at one point and were forced to back off on that forecast. Do not give credit where it is not due.

Oh, man! You're right! That's terrible! I mean...they were like .6 of a degree off! what an embarrasing mistake! and they call themselves professional forecasters...puh-lease!

(heavy dose of sarcasm)

They've done fine with this storm, all things considered. The models have been constantly flip-flopping, steering currents have been weak, and not even the weeniest of weenies would've predicted the strongest hurricane in recorded history. I guess, aside from the OBESE mistake of having one of their forecasts 87.6 west when it only reached 87 west (sarcasm again, I'm laying it on pretty thick), they've done well. Kudos NHC.

[conestogo_flood]

Interesting task... Someone read through this entire thread, and tell me if you feel like you have just witnessed a car wreck!

[storms in NC]

Do you guys really think she is going to be anymore then a tropical storm when she hits fl? Shes really starting to weaken!!

No she will be a hurricane when she hit FLa