Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[jkt21787]

Do you guys really think she is going to be anymore then a tropical storm when she hits fl? Shes really starting to weaken!!

No, I think she'll be a TD at FL landfall.

Now come on, you've read the discussion here and from NHC. You know it will emerge soon and as at least a cat 1, and will intensify a bit in the early portion of its Gulf trek before weakening before landfall. This will be a hurricane at FL landfall. Question is what category (1, 2, or 3).

[krysof]

Do you guys really think she is going to be anymore then a tropical storm when she hits fl? Shes really starting to weaken!!

considering she's been inland so long, and keeps holding her structue, she is doing quite well, normal hurricanes would have little for interacting with land for such a long time

[ronjon]

The center appears to be coming off the northeast coast now. She won't diminish to anything lower than she is now. hard to tell, but looks like a slight increase in forward speed to the north the last couple of frames.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

[wxwatcher2]

No. The NHC had it as far west as 87.6 at one point and were forced to back off on that forecast. Do not give credit where it is not due.[/quote]

I'm thinking the NHC does a pretty fair job of nailing these storms given all the variables.
Sure, it looks easy with all the modern tools the NHC has at their disposal.

If most of us didn't have the internet, we would think the NHC was doing an excellent job. I don't see the beef. Give em a break.

[wxwatcher2]

No. The NHC had it as far west as 87.6 at one point and were forced to back off on that forecast. Do not give credit where it is not due.[/quote]

I'm thinking the NHC does a pretty fair job of nailing these storms given all the variables.
Sure, it looks easy with all the modern tools the NHC has at their disposal.

If most of us didn't have the internet, we would think the NHC was doing an excellent job. I don't see the beef. Give em a break.

[wxwatcher2]

No. The NHC had it as far west as 87.6 at one point and were forced to back off on that forecast. Do not give credit where it is not due.[/quote]

I'm thinking the NHC does a pretty fair job of nailing these storms given all the variables.
Sure, it looks easy with all the modern tools the NHC has at their disposal.

If most of us didn't have the internet, we would think the NHC was doing an excellent job. I don't see the beef. Give em a break.

[wxwatcher2]

No. The NHC had it as far west as 87.6 at one point and were forced to back off on that forecast. Do not give credit where it is not due.[/quote]

I'm thinking the NHC does a pretty fair job of nailing these storms given all the variables.
Sure, it looks easy with all the modern tools the NHC has at their disposal.

If most of us didn't have the internet, we would think the NHC was doing an excellent job. I don't see the beef. Give em a break.

[thermos]

They've done fine with this storm, all things considered. The models have been constantly flip-flopping, steering currents have been weak, and not even the weeniest of weenies would've predicted the strongest hurricane in recorded history. I guess, aside from the OBESE mistake of having one of their forecasts 87.6 west when it only reached 87 west (sarcasm again, I'm laying it on pretty thick), they've done well. Kudos NHC.

The forecast was was made at 5PM and then changed by 11PM. Even their twelve hour forecast was way off. As far as their long range forecast for Wilma went it was blown apart. Their original forecast had the hurricane already in Florida by earlier today. Give them credit when they good like with Katrina and Rita but they don't lob heaps of praise on them when they are not as accurate. Don't be the NHC's praise monkey. What the NHC needs is more people, more data and more resources which they will never get because funds are goiong elsewhere.

[Brent]

5.2 feet at Isla Mujeres through 6am? Geez... how much have they had now??



http://cancuntravelonline.com/forum/vie ... 58f50ebdea

5th post...

[6SpeedTA95]

5.2 feet at Isla Mujeres through 6am? Geez... how much have they had now??



http://cancuntravelonline.com/forum/vie ... 58f50ebdea

5th post...

I've read that a couple places, I find it hard to believe because we've yet to hear anything official on that.

[chris_fit]

The center appears to be coming off the northeast coast now. She won't diminish to anything lower than she is now. hard to tell, but looks like a slight increase in forward speed to the north the last couple of frames.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

I Agree. Cool Loop. Thanks.

[tronbunny]

I'm one of the NHCs biggest fans!
I think they do a great job, and they are very accurate by all measurable standards...
But they have always said, and we ought to know....

Forecasting intensity and timing (especially beyond 72 hrs) has not been perfected.

Any track and landfall within "the cone" should be considered a success.
Intensity and timeg are getting better.
Be a good scientist/analyst and read the discussions and the variables.

We have only the minute details to argue here, so let's keep researching and learning.
If you don't want to nit pick details, then I guess we don't have much to discuss.
By the way, the details are not all human. It's more pleasant to argue about the inanimate details, so we don't take anything too personally.

[theworld]

The center appears to be coming off the northeast coast now. She won't diminish to anything lower than she is now. hard to tell, but looks like a slight increase in forward speed to the north the last couple of frames.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

I Agree. Cool Loop. Thanks.

Yup, agreed. She's off the coast within an hour or so. Cat 3+ to FL. Ft Meyers. Easily.

[jpigott]

boy, it sure looks like on the most recent vis satellite image on ramsdis that at least part of the center of circulation has moved offshore

[jpigott]

boy, it sure looks like on the most recent vis satellite image on ramsdis that at least part of the center of circulation has moved offshore

[6SpeedTA95]

Local radar still shows the center on shore, the eastern edge is within a couple miles of shore on radar.

[ronjon]

The 12Z GFDL has the storm about right with its current location and intensity. This model brings a 120 kt cane into the Port Charlotte/Ft Myers area in 48 hours. This is gonna be bad, very bad.


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[El Nino]

Difficult to say but we can see at least a reorganisation and maybe reintensification on last frames. And above all, they forecasted a cat1 offshore, and it's still a cat3. So, I've some fears for Florida now ...

[El Nino]

The 12Z GFDL has the storm about right with its current location and intensity. This model brings a 120 kt cane into the Port Charlotte/Ft Myers area in 48 hours. This is gonna be bad, very bad.


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Yes but no signs of Alpha on this map

[jamima]

I thought it was a two now?