TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[THead]

Well, if it were to take the path the actual "line" is showing, I'd like to think it will miss florida to the SE. Just kills me that we are still having to watch this darn thing at this time of year. I know its still hurricane season, and I actuallly remember a thanksgiving TS we had down here in the mid 80's I think.....but man this is getting old. It seems like Dennis was 5 years ago, and frances and jeanne 7 years!

[mike815]

I know what u mean. It kills me too.

[wxman57]

No way in the world this is a TD. It's still a sheared wave. The NHC just doesn't know when to let go.

[fasterdisaster]

If 93L dies this will strengthen
If 93L develops it will be VERY hard for this to strengthen

[mike815]

yup thats what its going to come down to.

[thunderchief]

well the deep convection persists... but its very disorganized and migrating south towards land.

[wxmann_91]

The outflow of Invest 93L is producing a lot of shear of TD 27. I wouldn't be surprised to see TD 27 die by tomorrow, but then again despite all this shear it has still got some pretty intense and presistant convection on its southeast side.

A possible Fujiwara scenario between 93L and TD 27 looks pretty likely. Afterwards, I expect one of the two systems (probably 93L due to its current impressive sat presentation) to develop into a tropical storm - should it not interact with land.

[StrongWind]

How would you get a Fujiwara effect between 2 systems without circulation? Wouldn't they just merge?

[f5]

would TD 27 do what TD 10 did.remember we wrote that thing off and yes we all know where that led.

[bahamaswx]

How would you get a Fujiwara effect between 2 systems without circulation? Wouldn't they just merge?

Just because there's no LLC doesn't mean there isn't circulation in the mid-upper levels. However, you're indeed correct, in this situtation they would generally just 'merge.'

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KWBC 160636
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051116 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051116 0600 051116 1800 051117 0600 051117 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 70.8W 14.7N 72.7W 14.5N 74.8W 14.8N 77.0W
BAMM 14.8N 70.8W 15.0N 73.3W 15.1N 75.8W 15.6N 78.5W
A98E 14.8N 70.8W 14.6N 73.3W 14.4N 75.7W 14.2N 78.1W
LBAR 14.8N 70.8W 14.8N 72.7W 15.1N 74.3W 15.0N 75.6W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051118 0600 051119 0600 051120 0600 051121 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 79.0W 17.6N 81.1W 20.7N 79.3W 26.7N 68.7W
BAMM 16.4N 80.8W 17.2N 83.6W 17.2N 84.8W 18.2N 81.9W
A98E 14.5N 80.2W 14.0N 83.4W 13.6N 85.9W 13.2N 87.8W
LBAR 15.1N 76.0W 14.5N 75.3W 15.2N 72.9W 16.3N 71.9W
SHIP 43KTS 51KTS 51KTS 41KTS
DSHP 43KTS 51KTS 51KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 68.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 66.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Coredesat]

16/0545 UTC 14.8N 69.8W T2.0/2.5 27

[cycloneye]

93L did this to TD27

[JamesFromMaine2]

WHXX04 KWBC 161123
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.7 71.1 270./12.0
6 14.9 72.2 279./10.9
12 15.0 73.4 274./11.9
18 15.3 75.0 282./15.8
24 15.6 76.4 284./13.6
30 15.9 78.3 277./18.4
36 16.0 79.5 274./11.7
42 16.4 80.8 286./13.0
48 16.7 82.1 285./12.4
54 16.6 83.1 266./10.4
60 16.5 83.7 251./ 5.3
66 16.2 83.8 214./ 2.6
72 16.1 83.8 204./ 1.2
78 16.0 83.9 201./ .8
84 15.9 83.7 131./ 1.8
90 16.0 83.5 75./ 2.2
96 16.1 83.5 29./ 1.0
102 16.2 83.1 74./ 3.9
108 16.7 82.5 50./ 7.3
114 17.4 82.1 26./ 8.1
120 18.2 81.8 24./ 8.8
126 19.1 81.6 13./ 8.9

[wxman57]

He's dead, Jim! Like I have been saying for two days - TD 27 was no more than a sheared wave. There was never a well-defined LLC, as recon found yesterday. Shear has ripped it apart overnight. It will not redevelop.

Invest 93L does look a lot more interesting, though.

[fci]

He's dead, Jim! Like I have been saying for two days - TD 27 was no more than a sheared wave. There was never a well-defined LLC, as recon found yesterday. Shear has ripped it apart overnight. It will not redevelop.

Invest 93L does look a lot more interesting, though.

Well they finally listened to you (or came to the party)
Thanks for providing the insight well early in the process!

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 161230
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY SEVEN
B. 16/1131Z (122)
C. X.X/X
D. XX.X/X
E. GOES12
F. TX.X/1.5 -16/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

CAN NOT FIND LLCC

AODT: N/A

CAMPBELL/ALEXANDER


No LLCC. Rest in Peace.

[wxman57]

He's dead, Jim! Like I have been saying for two days - TD 27 was no more than a sheared wave. There was never a well-defined LLC, as recon found yesterday. Shear has ripped it apart overnight. It will not redevelop.

Invest 93L does look a lot more interesting, though.

Well they finally listened to you (or came to the party)
Thanks for providing the insight well early in the process!

Nah, they never listen to me. It's just that for the past 2 days there were at least a couple of thunderstorms near what they called TD 27. With them gone, they can't justify calling it a TD any more. Now if I can kill Invest 93L, I can get over to my mother's house in Mississippi to paint and install baseboards over Thanksgiving.

[DESTRUCTION5]

He's dead, Jim! Like I have been saying for two days - TD 27 was no more than a sheared wave. There was never a well-defined LLC, as recon found yesterday. Shear has ripped it apart overnight. It will not redevelop.

Invest 93L does look a lot more interesting, though.

Well they finally listened to you (or came to the party)
Thanks for providing the insight well early in the process!

Nah, they never listen to me. It's just that for the past 2 days there were at least a couple of thunderstorms near what they called TD 27. With them gone, they can't justify calling it a TD any more. Now if I can kill Invest 93L, I can get over to my mother's house in Mississippi to paint and install baseboards over Thanksgiving.

Hey I never doubted you....I even said it would be lucky if it get west of Jamacia...Don't have to wait for that anymore..

[Weatherfreak000]

He's dead, Jim! Like I have been saying for two days - TD 27 was no more than a sheared wave. There was never a well-defined LLC, as recon found yesterday. Shear has ripped it apart overnight. It will not redevelop.

Invest 93L does look a lot more interesting, though.

Well they finally listened to you (or came to the party)
Thanks for providing the insight well early in the process!

Nah, they never listen to me. It's just that for the past 2 days there were at least a couple of thunderstorms near what they called TD 27. With them gone, they can't justify calling it a TD any more. Now if I can kill Invest 93L, I can get over to my mother's house in Mississippi to paint and install baseboards over Thanksgiving.

IMO it's about as ridiculous to wishcast a storm to dissapate as it is to wishcast a stronger storm.



But don't get me wrong, "congratulations" and all