Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[jkt21787]

ERC over land, is that not paradoxical. ?

Not really. Storms can replace their eyewalls anytime, it doesn't have to be over water.

[inotherwords]

this storm is doing well better then I thought it would do over land

Me too, it's a really tenacious storm.

[jkt21787]

Things that make you go hmm....
Storms do not strengthen if the Sun is going down.

Lets try this again. Sunsets cause an error in that particular sat product

I really would like to NOT have to explain or clarify this again, but I keep having to for some reason.

[f5]

NHC was expecting her to sit over land LONGER.

[MGC]

Here are my thoughs on Wilma for what its worth. Should slowly drift off the Yucatan tonight. Conditions appear favorable for Wilma to reintensify into a Cat-3. Wilma should begin to weaken as the hurricane approaches the Florida coast between Braenton and Ft Myers as a Cat-2. Considering Wilma's large circulation, tides and surge should be above normal for a Cat-2 hurricane perhaps in the Cat-3 range for surge.....MGC

[6SpeedTA95]

i realize the conditions aren't as favorable but she NOT sitting over land as forecasted perviously.which gives her time to gain a extra category of strength than forecasted

I thought she was always forecast to gain a strength category after exiting the Yucatan. At least that's what I've always read in the NHC discussions.

That has been their prediction all along. The fact that she's leaving the yuc early means she's roughly 12 hrs ahead of the shear and did not weaken as much as first thought. So a run up to a 3 seems very plausible possibly a brief touch at a 4, although I dont find that very likely.

[theworld]

ERC over land, is that not paradoxical. ?

Not really. Storms can replace their eyewalls anytime, it doesn't have to be over water.

Curious, were there any storms that had an ERC over land, well at least since we've had the instrument to see it ?

[tampaflwx]

Check out a loop of the current storm. Looks like the size of the storm is expanding. And it has a 75 NM WIDE EYE w/ CLOSED EYEWALL!!!

[jpigott]

Latest vortex=957mb and 93kt

also notable in the latest vortex message is the eye wall has contracted from 75 miles to 60 miles

[gatorcane]

is it safe to say we are seeing intensification ?

[jkt21787]

is it safe to say we are seeing intensification ?

If you are referring to the 1mb pressure drop, then No. There are no other indications of intensification either. Keep in mind recon went in early this afternoon and found 958, then another pass at 957, then another at 958, and now this one at 957. Its steady for all intents and purposes.

[Myersgirl]

I was just on my back dock checking the boat, one house boarded up, 5 sets of neighbors having cocktails.... so much for Ft. Myers preperation

Still time to board up tomorrow morning. I'm with your neighbors, I think I'm ready for a glass of wine or three. This has been a rough day and we have a few more rough ones ahead.

Now I did have a glass of wine with them before taking down all the chickee-hut decorations. Im not crazy

[tallywx]

ERC over land, is that not paradoxical. ?

Not really. Storms can replace their eyewalls anytime, it doesn't have to be over water.

Curious, were there any storms that had an ERC over land, well at least since we've had the instrument to see it ?

Yes. In fact, every storm that stalls over land with a portion of its circulation over water experiences a weakening/collapse of the inner core whilst the outer part of the circulation maintains more of its vigor because it remains over water. What we see here is textbook physics, folks: the inner core has been disrupted by friction from land and lack of a heat source, while the outer circulation remains robust. Since Wilma didn't move too far inland, enough of the circulation remained over water for an eyewall to form.

So now here's the kicker: the fact that the inner core HAS collapsed may mean the storm MIGHT NOT strengthen as rapidly as some here are thinking. The reason is that storms that have lost their inner core, as Wilma has by definition of the 75 mi wide eye, have a tough time tightening up again. That's why Frances in 2004 never recovered, even over the Gulf stream, and didn't strengthen before hitting Florida. That's why so many other storms that have lost their inner core, like Isidore in 2002 after the Yucatan, couldn't strengthen whatsoever.

[Brent]

is it safe to say we are seeing intensification ?

No.

[inotherwords]

Things that make you go hmm....
Storms do not strengthen if the Sun is going down.

Lets try this again. Sunsets cause an error in that particular sat product

I really would like to NOT have to explain or clarify this again, but I keep having to for some reason.

Maybe if you added "OMG! It's exploding! We're all gonna die!" it would get their attention.

[theworld]

ERC over land, is that not paradoxical. ?

Not really. Storms can replace their eyewalls anytime, it doesn't have to be over water.

Curious, were there any storms that had an ERC over land, well at least since we've had the instrument to see it ?

Yes. In fact, every storm that stalls with a portion of its circulation over water experiences a weakening/collapse of the inner core whilst the outer part of the circulation maintains more of its vigor because it remains over water. What we see here is textbook physics, folks: the inner core has been disrupted by friction from land and lack of a heat source, while the outer circulation remains robust. Since Wilma didn't move too far inland, enough of the circulation remained over water for an eyewall to form.

So now here's the kicker: the fact that the inner core HAS collapsed may mean the storm MIGHT NOT strengthen as rapidly as some here are thinking. The reason is that storms that have lost their inner core, as Wilma has by definition of the 75 mi wide eye, have a tough time tightening up again. That's why Frances in 2004 never recovered, even over the Gulf stream, and didn't strengthen before hitting Florida. That's why so many other storms that have lost their inner core, like Isidore in 2002 after the Yucatan, couldn't strengthen whatsoever.

Thanks

[gatorcane]

[TampaFl]

GFS 500MB (18,000') steering flow issued @ 10/22/05 18Z shows Wilma moving ashore near SQR (Sarasota) in about 42hrs on 10/24/05 12Z . Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/models/compositemaster.cgi?MODEL=2005102218_CON_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS

[ronjon]

is it safe to say we are seeing intensification ?

Me thinks she's already getting stronger. The CDO has expanded in the north and east quads, the eyewall has contracted, she dropped 1 mb in pressure (while over land), entering warm SSTs, no trough with westerlies for 24 hrs, loop current to go over.......well, u get my point.

[Brent]

Things that make you go hmm....
Storms do not strengthen if the Sun is going down.

Lets try this again. Sunsets cause an error in that particular sat product

I really would like to NOT have to explain or clarify this again, but I keep having to for some reason.

Maybe if you added "OMG! It's exploding! We're all gonna die!" it would get their attention.