Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

CHRISTY · #4221 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:58 am

i think it will swicth more to the south today...

#4222 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:59 am

CHRISTY wrote:i think it will swicth more to the south today...

Why?

Lori · #4223 Postby **Lori** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:07 am

Patiently waiting on the 5am Discussion. Where are you? :sprinkler:

#4224 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:10 am

Lori wrote:Patiently waiting on the 5am Discussion. Where are you?

Me too, was gonna be my que for some sleep........

CHRISTY · #4225 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:13 am

this front will prevent from going anywere further north then westpalm beach.

#4226 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:14 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230906
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

CENTER FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND 045/03. A LARGE AND
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
FOR WILMA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN
24-36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SPREAD...WITH THE GFS BEING THE NORTHERNMOST AND NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE....AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.

AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF
WILMA...WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS
BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE
LARGE...ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS...AND RAGGED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEAST
YUCATAN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SOME
RESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE-SSW AXIS WITH MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING SHEAR...BUT IT IS
ASSUMED THAT WILMA'S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP...AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
LOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. SINCE THE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48
HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 22.1N 86.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 24.7N 83.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 27.4N 79.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0600Z 49.0N 49.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

Lori · #4227 Postby **Lori** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:17 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230906
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

CENTER FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND 045/03. A LARGE AND
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
FOR WILMA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN
24-36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SPREAD...WITH THE GFS BEING THE NORTHERNMOST AND NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE....AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.

AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF
WILMA...WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS
BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE
LARGE...ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS...AND RAGGED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEAST
YUCATAN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SOME
RESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE-SSW AXIS WITH MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING SHEAR...BUT IT IS
ASSUMED THAT WILMA'S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP...AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
LOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. SINCE THE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48
HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 22.1N 86.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 24.7N 83.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 27.4N 79.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0600Z 49.0N 49.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Hmmm...trough will cause southwesterly steering flow

#4228 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:18 am

They backed off the intensity forecast a bit at the 5am disco. Now they have it at 90kt max in 12 hours.

CHRISTY · #4229 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:19 am

meaning this may come in close to broward miami dade counties

sfwx · #4230 Postby **sfwx** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:28 am

Look how the storm is elongated this morning with a lot of the deepest convection to the north of the storm. Timing will be interesting with the front digging south.

Eric

#4231 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:34 am

Can definitely see the inner eyewall getting together on the 8:45 frame. Is she trying to make another pinhole eye? :lol:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

superfly · #4232 Postby **superfly** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:20 am

What the heck is Wilma doing with its re-organizing? Is it trying to do a reverse ERC or something? Replacing its dominant outer eyewall with a smaller inner eyewall?

johngaltfla · #4233 Postby **johngaltfla** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:23 am

superfly wrote:What the heck is Wilma doing with its re-organizing? Is it trying to do a reverse ERC or something? Replacing its dominant outer eyewall with a smaller inner eyewall?

I hope not. But probably so. :eek:

birdwomn · #4234 Postby **birdwomn** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:31 am

This storm has been confounding me...every time I think I have it nailed down, it does soemthing to surprise me.

At this point, I do not like surprises this close to landfall. I have to decide whether to close on Monday or not. Tough call here in Pinellas county still.

#4235 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:47 am

With the storm elongated nne as the Hurricane Center stated in their 5AM Disco. would not Wilma follow a similar path...i.e as she is "pointing " in that direction? Check out the steering flow: Still working on first cup of coffee so thoughts and comments welcomed

.

Robert 8-)

superfly · #4236 Postby **superfly** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:53 am

Wilma looks like she's falling apart, looks very sickly right now.

DESTRUCTION5 · #4237 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:58 am

superfly wrote:Wilma looks like she's falling apart, looks very sickly right now.

Ugly ?She forming that friggin "Pinhole eye again"

wxwatcher91 · #4238 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:03 am

omg I'm getting a wicked bad headache trying to see what the heck she is doing! I mean has any hurricane ever before done a reverse ERC? I'm very confused right now... I can't even make up my mind whether that pinhole is an eye or not!

any pro mets here to explain this? ...actually I'll listen to anybody... I need some theory whether it's right or wrong lol

superfly · #4239 Postby **superfly** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:08 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
superfly wrote:Wilma looks like she's falling apart, looks very sickly right now.

Ugly ?She forming that friggin "Pinhole eye again"

Might be trying but there's so much dry air between the 2 "eyewalls" that I don't see how it's possible. Also the eastern quad is eroding.

DESTRUCTION5 · #4240 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:17 am

Whats the 6Z GFS say?

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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