Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[wxman57]

970 Mb and 75 knts at flight level, so 68 or am I wrong ? Not so strong, this pressure supports almost a cat2 I think. Maybe when the eye will build with his wall, it will become stronger and bomb.

Remember, it's not just the central pressure, it's the pressure GRADIENT. Katrina had a low central pressure but a huge core of high winds. Thus, lower pressure gradient and Cat 3 at landfall. It's a little different with Wilma, but it's still the pressure gradient which is lacking. Wilma is developing in an environment of relatively low pressure. Pressures have been very low all across the SW Atlantic basin through the Caribbean Sea in the past few weeks. So 970mb central pressure combined with low pressures outside the storm don't create enough of a gradient to have stronger winds.

[Blown Away]

What are the Bam's and Ukmet models missing that would allow a more N landfall, N of Ft. Myers for example?? Even the NHC track shifted slighty S at 5pm.

[Weatherfreak14]

IMO I guess a track a little more noeth than that.

[wxman57]

What are the Bam's and Ukmet models missing that would allow a more N landfall, N of Ft. Myers for example?? Even the NHC track shifted slighty S at 5pm.

Read my link on models. The BAMs should never be used out of the deep tropics because they're not really dynamic models in that they don't predict a changing atmosphere well. The BAMs may not see the approaching trof actually moving southeastward. As for the UKMET, well, it's not really a good tropical model.

[linkerweather]

What are the Bam's and Ukmet models missing that would allow a more N landfall, N of Ft. Myers for example?? Even the NHC track shifted slighty S at 5pm.

Read my link on models. The BAMs should never be used out of the deep tropics because they're not really dynamic models in that they don't predict a changing atmosphere well. The BAMs may not see the approaching trof actually moving southeastward. As for the UKMET, well, it's not really a good tropical model.

Excellent point. To me what makes this such a challenge is the transition between the tropics and the mid latitudes at this time of year. And how the models may be handling it.

[wxwonder12]

At what point (time frame) should the models stop jumping around and there would be a more definitive landfall area?

[Weatherfreak14]

day of landfall really. Within a 24hr to 48hr time frame.

[vaffie]

970 Mb and 75 knts at flight level, so 68 or am I wrong ? Not so strong, this pressure supports almost a cat2 I think. Maybe when the eye will build with his wall, it will become stronger and bomb.

Remember, it's not just the central pressure, it's the pressure GRADIENT. Katrina had a low central pressure but a huge core of high winds. Thus, lower pressure gradient and Cat 3 at landfall. It's a little different with Wilma, but it's still the pressure gradient which is lacking. Wilma is developing in an environment of relatively low pressure. Pressures have been very low all across the SW Atlantic basin through the Caribbean Sea in the past few weeks. So 970mb central pressure combined with low pressures outside the storm don't create enough of a gradient to have stronger winds.

That's true, but as it gains latitude it will be moving into a higher pressure environment, and thus even if it's pressure didn't decrease, it's winds would start ramping up and it's windfield would grow too. So, if it's pressure goes very low, even if it's winds don't go along right now, as it enters the Yucatan Channel, it will be strengthening regardless, in my opinion. Let me just say that I feel really sorry for Central and South Florida right now, and will keep you in my prayers. Please get ready to leave.

[jpigott]

check out the Mia and Key West radars. Are these rains associated with Wilma's circulation. It appears so, it looks as if they are rotating counter-clockwise.

[Scorpion]

I am really looking at the pressure, I could care less about the winds at the moment. The pressure is really dropping, and will probably be in the 950's by morning. This is what to watch out for.

[SouthFloridawx]

Guys I think this is getting stronger by the moment.

[TampaFl]

What are the Bam's and Ukmet models missing that would allow a more N landfall, N of Ft. Myers for example?? Even the NHC track shifted slighty S at 5pm.

Read my link on models. The BAMs should never be used out of the deep tropics because they're not really dynamic models in that they don't predict a changing atmosphere well. The BAMs may not see the approaching trof actually moving southeastward. As for the UKMET, well, it's not really a good tropical model.

Excellent point. To me what makes this such a challenge is the transition between the tropics and the mid latitudes at this time of year. And how the models may be handling it.

Linkerweather, what are your thoughts on the future movement once into the Gulf?. I know it is still way to early to tell exactly where landfall will occur, but the west to wnw movement over the last several hours could affect the future track. IMHO a track maybe similar to Charley last year. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[Scorpion]

Wow look at that eye. What are the T numbers? Surely should be at least 5.0.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That looks like a pin hole eye...I think theres no way this is not a hurricane...But recon keeps coming in say below 75 mph.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We got 93 mph winds at 850 millibars=74.4 mph surface...

[Foladar0]

What are the Bam's and Ukmet models missing that would allow a more N landfall, N of Ft. Myers for example?? Even the NHC track shifted slighty S at 5pm.

Read my link on models. The BAMs should never be used out of the deep tropics because they're not really dynamic models in that they don't predict a changing atmosphere well. The BAMs may not see the approaching trof actually moving southeastward. As for the UKMET, well, it's not really a good tropical model.

Excellent point. To me what makes this such a challenge is the transition between the tropics and the mid latitudes at this time of year. And how the models may be handling it.

Linkerweather, what are your thoughts on the future movement once into the Gulf?. I know it is still way to early to tell exactly where landfall will occur, but the west to wnw movement over the last several hours could affect the future track. IMHO a track maybe similar to Charley last year. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

Tampa?

[superfly]

Here comes the eye.

[skysummit]

Talk about consensus!

[fasterdisaster]

94 mph at 850 mb is 75.4 mph surface.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What are the Bam's and Ukmet models missing that would allow a more N landfall, N of Ft. Myers for example?? Even the NHC track shifted slighty S at 5pm.

Read my link on models. The BAMs should never be used out of the deep tropics because they're not really dynamic models in that they don't predict a changing atmosphere well. The BAMs may not see the approaching trof actually moving southeastward. As for the UKMET, well, it's not really a good tropical model.

Excellent point. To me what makes this such a challenge is the transition between the tropics and the mid latitudes at this time of year. And how the models may be handling it.

Linkerweather, what are your thoughts on the future movement once into the Gulf?. I know it is still way to early to tell exactly where landfall will occur, but the west to wnw movement over the last several hours could affect the future track. IMHO a track maybe similar to Charley last year. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

Tampa?

I am also concerned about this possibility.
FOLADAR- TRUST ME NO ONE WOULD WISHCAST A STORM ON TAMPA BAY