Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[thermos]

She's wrapping up to a deliver a big unwanted punch to the Keys and South Florida.

[vaffie]

According to:
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... 12000.html
which predicts hurricane damage, the current projected official track and strength of Wilma over Florida (max winds=95 mph) will result in the following estimated damage of $13.3 billion:

Broward: $6.1 billion
Palm Beach: $4.6 billion
Dade: $2.2 billion

with smaller amounts for Monroe, Martin, and Collier.

Remember: this is if it's only 95 mph!
Looks bad.

[gatorcane]

95mph, try 110mph + with gusts up to 120mph.

[johngaltfla]

95mph, try 110mph + with gusts up to 120mph.

Add 20 mph of forward speed to that figure Chris.

I'm just worried this sucker could wobble NNE and a lot of folks in Charlotte and Sarasota County will wake up to a very very big suprise.

[WxGuy1]

Just further evidence that there aren't signs of rapid strengthening right now is on the 15z VORTEX data message -- indicating that the eye temperature is only 14C, and the temp gradient across the eyewall is only 2C. The inner eye is trying to reform, so we'll see where she's at in 12 hours. But from the eye temp and eyewall temp grad, she's not very impressive.

[kevin]

You DON"T ADD FORWARD SPEED ARHRHHRHRHRHRHR


sorry, its a widely held misconception. I wanted to emphasize the widely held aspect.

[jkt21787]

95mph, try 110mph + with gusts up to 120mph.

Add 20 mph of forward speed to that figure Chris.

I'm just worried this sucker could wobble NNE and a lot of folks in Charlotte and Sarasota County will wake up to a very very big suprise.

Forward speed is already accounted for in the wind speeds you see on NHC advisories. We live in the real world, not the theoretical world, so that all is automatically applied

[THead]

Ya know, I think we should be a little more careful with the "wilma is falling apart" type posts. There are people reading this and might be influenced by this. Err on the side of caution a bit. JMHO

[gatorcane]

vortex readings? Just look at the infrared. She's really gettin her act together:

[curtadams]

Its 10 kts of shear, the same amount she has had the whole time.

No, it's up to 20 kts just outside the outer eyewall. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html And it gets quite a bit worse as you go north - it's easy to see on IR.

[jkt21787]

Just further evidence that there aren't signs of rapid strengthening right now is on the 15z VORTEX data message -- indicating that the eye temperature is only 14C, and the temp gradient across the eyewall is only 2C. The inner eye is trying to reform, so we'll see where she's at in 12 hours. But from the eye temp and eyewall temp grad, she's not very impressive.

I agree with you, but anytime you try to say she is not organizing or strengthening, people here go crazy. It makes me worry a bit about what they are wanting here..

[6SpeedTA95]

95mph, try 110mph + with gusts up to 120mph.

Add 20 mph of forward speed to that figure Chris.

I'm just worried this sucker could wobble NNE and a lot of folks in Charlotte and Sarasota County will wake up to a very very big suprise.

For the umpteenth time in this thread FORWARD SPEED IS FIGURED INTO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS.

[THead]

95mph, try 110mph + with gusts up to 120mph.

Add 20 mph of forward speed to that figure Chris.

I'm just worried this sucker could wobble NNE and a lot of folks in Charlotte and Sarasota County will wake up to a very very big suprise.

Forward speed is already accounted for in the wind speeds you see on NHC advisories. We live in the real world, not the theoretical world, so that all is automatically applied

However that might be why she won't weaken much, wind-wise, as she makes landfall. If her actual intensity dropped by 15mph, but her forward speed increases by 15mph, she will remain the same intensity, max winds.

[feederband]

You know the funny thing is TV weather people still today say "and if you add the forward speed"

[thermos]

Just further evidence that there aren't signs of rapid strengthening right now is on the 15z VORTEX data message -- indicating that the eye temperature is only 14C, and the temp gradient across the eyewall is only 2C. The inner eye is trying to reform, so we'll see where she's at in 12 hours. But from the eye temp and eyewall temp grad, she's not very impressive.

I agree with you, but anytime you try to say she is not organizing or strengthening, people here go crazy. It makes me worry a bit about what they are wanting here..

I would argue the opposite. Anytime you simply say that Wilma is getting better organized some people go crazy -- even tho the NHC has written in their discussion that Wilma is getting better organized.

INNER CORE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION DO SEEM TO BE ON A
GRADUAL INCREASE.

[6SpeedTA95]

95mph, try 110mph + with gusts up to 120mph.

Add 20 mph of forward speed to that figure Chris.

I'm just worried this sucker could wobble NNE and a lot of folks in Charlotte and Sarasota County will wake up to a very very big suprise.

Forward speed is already accounted for in the wind speeds you see on NHC advisories. We live in the real world, not the theoretical world, so that all is automatically applied

However that might be why she won't weaken much, wind-wise, as she makes landfall. If her actual intensity dropped by 15mph, but her forward speed increases by 15mph, she will remain the same intensity, max winds.

100 mph winds are 100 mph winds

[curtadams]

That sat pic is exactly what I'm talking about - she's a mess. No eye, outer eyewall missing to the east, inner wall just separate storms, strongest convection in the weakening outer wall under strengthening shear.

[jkt21787]

You know the funny thing is TV weather people still today say "and if you add the forward speed"

Yeah, I saw Jacqui Jeras on CNN a few minutes ago that if Wilma is moving 40 mph and is 100 mph at landfall, it would create 140 mph winds on the south side.

THAT IS ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE!!!

[Scorpion]

That sat pic is exactly what I'm talking about - she's a mess. No eye, outer eyewall missing to the east, inner wall just separate storms, strongest convection in the weakening outer wall under strengthening shear.

Ok but it looks better than before.

[THead]

95mph, try 110mph + with gusts up to 120mph.

Add 20 mph of forward speed to that figure Chris.

I'm just worried this sucker could wobble NNE and a lot of folks in Charlotte and Sarasota County will wake up to a very very big suprise.

Forward speed is already accounted for in the wind speeds you see on NHC advisories. We live in the real world, not the theoretical world, so that all is automatically applied

However that might be why she won't weaken much, wind-wise, as she makes landfall. If her actual intensity dropped by 15mph, but her forward speed increases by 15mph, she will remain the same intensity, max winds.

100 mph winds are 100 mph winds

Right. If you take a stationary hurricane and measure max winds of 100mph, then you take the same exact hurricane and move it 15mph forward speed, you are going to measure 115mph winds relative to the earth, or the plane. So the intensity would be set at 115, factoring in the forward speed.

EDIT: So if the overall intensity of Wilma were to weaken 15 mph, but at the same time her forward speed went up 15mph, there would be no change in max winds.