Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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Brent
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HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
WILMA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD
HEADING...WITH CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KT...AND IT WILL PROBABLY
BE MOVING TWICE AS FAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES IS PROGRESSING TO THE
EAST AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING... AND IT SHOULD REACH THE
GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING WILMA OVER FLORIDA. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE THE CENTER OF WILMA TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING.
HOWEVER... THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH. AS A RESULT... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING THE
CENTER TO THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON WHERE WILMA WILL GO...IT REMAINS
IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN
PROVIDING DATA FROM WILMA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FALLING... MOST RECENTLY TO 959 MB.
GIVEN THE LOWERING PRESSURE... SFMR WINDS AS STRONG AS 87 KT... AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 100 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 90 KT. IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP
UNTIL LANDFALL... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LESS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF
THE EYE AND A LACK OF TIME FOR IT TO CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
FLORIDA. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STEADY
WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR
IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING
TREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS
CATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY
THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.5N 84.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.8N 83.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 79.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 68.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
WILMA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD
HEADING...WITH CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KT...AND IT WILL PROBABLY
BE MOVING TWICE AS FAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES IS PROGRESSING TO THE
EAST AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING... AND IT SHOULD REACH THE
GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING WILMA OVER FLORIDA. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE THE CENTER OF WILMA TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING.
HOWEVER... THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH. AS A RESULT... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING THE
CENTER TO THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON WHERE WILMA WILL GO...IT REMAINS
IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN
PROVIDING DATA FROM WILMA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FALLING... MOST RECENTLY TO 959 MB.
GIVEN THE LOWERING PRESSURE... SFMR WINDS AS STRONG AS 87 KT... AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 100 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 90 KT. IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP
UNTIL LANDFALL... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LESS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF
THE EYE AND A LACK OF TIME FOR IT TO CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
FLORIDA. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STEADY
WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR
IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING
TREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS
CATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY
THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.5N 84.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.8N 83.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 79.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 68.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#neversummer
Brent wrote:Am I reading that right? No hurricane force winds in most of the northern part of the circulation?
With a current motion of 14mph means that there is (in a perfectly symmetric storm-relative wind field) a 28mph wind differential between the right-forward quad and the left-rear quad. In this case, that means that winds in the nw quad are 28mph weak then in the se quad. Now, add onto that some storm-relative asymmetry (meaning that, even if the storm was stationary, winds would be higher in the se quad now than in the nw quad owing to other processes), and that would make up for the rest of the difference between the se and nw quads. Remember, the NHC (and most others) have called for slight strengthening, so seeing Wilma's pressure drop another 10mb wouldn't be suprising, nor unforecast.
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El Nino wrote:105 according to latest discussion, so 10 km/h from cat3.
Another night of intensification ? Watch out for a cat5 cane tomorrow FL !
holy overstatement batman!!! cat5 LOL
Last edited by CronkPSU on Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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6SpeedTA95
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Derek Ortt
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storms in NC
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storms in NC
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Solaris wrote:NOAA plane just found 101 kts, probably SE quadrant.
101kts FL = 91kts surface = about 105mph surface... Shucks, that's exactly what the advisory winds are... LOL... Oh no, it's not armageddon
Last edited by WxGuy1 on Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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