Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Brent
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#5241 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 24, 2005 12:57 am

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 70 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 95 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 67 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
75 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH

Good night folks.
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#5242 Postby Typhoon » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:03 am

Only 80 knots was found in the NW quad. This should be the weakest quadrant, but 80 knots just seems low to me. Let's see what they find in the SE quad.
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#5243 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:06 am

Typhoon wrote:Only 80 knots was found in the NW quad. This should be the weakest quadrant, but 80 knots just seems low to me. Let's see what they find in the SE quad.


If the storm is moving 15kts... and 112kts was found in the SE quad (storm-relative winds + 15kts), then 112-30=82kts, which is very consistent with the 80kt wind measured. The ob seems just fine to me.
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#5244 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:08 am

thats still weak to me.

<RICKY>
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#5245 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:08 am

oops sorry. I meant to say strong.

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#5246 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:17 am

130 knots flight-level in the SE quadrant.
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#5247 Postby vaffie » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:18 am

Recon just reported 130 knot flight-level winds -->
X 1.15 x 0.90 = 135 mph surface winds!
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#5248 Postby thermos » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:18 am

seriously? :eek:
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#5249 Postby mikemiller18 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:25 am

SE quad will be coming over my house soon in west palm :x
Last edited by mikemiller18 on Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5250 Postby SamSagnella » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:25 am

And in the last half an hour, a SErn eyewall has really come together.

0608. 2437N 08226W 03041 5231 222 124 104 104 127 02853 0000000100
0609 2436N 08224W 03047 5221 221 129 086 086 130 02870 0000000100
0609. 2435N 08222W 03048 5207 218 127 082 082 129 02885 0000000100

:uarrow: is in the NWrn eyewall, not meaning to confuse anyone.
Last edited by SamSagnella on Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5251 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:27 am

A sizable chunk of gray convection has developed to the west of the eye.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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#5252 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:28 am

thermos wrote:seriously? :eek:


Even if it was, Wilma is clearly on a weakening trend.

Eye opening up to the southwest, almost no rain in the western quadrant noted on the radar. The temperature difference between the inside and outside of eye is decreasing. Of course, Cat 3 landfall is still likely, and by no means should FL think this means Wilma is "poofing", but just pointing out that Wilma's peak in the GOM has most likely passed.
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#5253 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:30 am

thats bogus on the radar....radar just can't see that far....look at the VERY COLD tops in the west quad...NOOOO WAY theres nothing there
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#5254 Postby mikemiller18 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:31 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
thermos wrote:seriously? :eek:


Even if it was, Wilma is clearly on a weakening trend.

Eye opening up to the southwest, almost no rain in the western quadrant noted on the radar. The temperature difference between the inside and outside of eye is decreasing. Of course, Cat 3 landfall is still likely, and by no means should FL think this means Wilma is "poofing", but just pointing out that Wilma's peak in the GOM has most likely passed.


Uh?
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#5255 Postby Bgator » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:31 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
thermos wrote:seriously? :eek:


Even if it was, Wilma is clearly on a weakening trend.

Eye opening up to the southwest, almost no rain in the western quadrant noted on the radar. The temperature difference between the inside and outside of eye is decreasing. Of course, Cat 3 landfall is still likely, and by no means should FL think this means Wilma is "poofing", but just pointing out that Wilma's peak in the GOM has most likely passed.


I disagree, tho there radar has no rain on west side, there are VERY deep clouds there!
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#5256 Postby StormFury » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:31 am

what is Wilma's intensity now based on recon data?
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#5257 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:32 am

This hurricane still looks to be strengthing to me. Don't truth the radar this far out...Weird thing is the winds are over the southern quad.
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#5258 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:32 am

StormFury wrote:what is Wilma's intensity now based on recon data?


117 knots.
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#5259 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:32 am

StormFury wrote:what is Wilma's intensity now based on recon data?


134.5 mph
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#5260 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:33 am

deltadog03 wrote:thats bogus on the radar....radar just can't see that far....look at the VERY COLD tops in the west quad...NOOOO WAY theres nothing there


Well, long range is down, so yeah it is very possible, still though, the short-term trend for Wilma is looking slightly better, perhaps Wilma is leaving the Loop Current. The cold cloud tops are probably from that thin line of convection in the NW Quad.
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