Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Nimbus]

Caneman wrote:

As long as the storm remains over those warm waters and UL winds remain at least marginally favorable, the storm will be able to mix out the dry air, eventually. It just takes time.

I agree her convection exploded early this morning before taking a big gulp of dry air.

The NHC showed amazing restraint overnight with the southwest drift!

Looks like another burst of convection this morning with the central pressure still dropping.

I would not be surprised if Ophelia is upgraded to a hurricane today or tonight.
Lets hope for some easterly component to her motion as the models seem to be showing, that would take some pressure off in the short term.

[SouthFloridawx]

there's your lack of convection

[cajungal]

Uggh. I hate when storms just linger off the coast and go in loops! Just aggrevating. I guess everyone from North Carolina and even the gulf coast should be watching this one. Because it will be days before we have a clear picture of where she is going.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have to share this ... it is incredible the blow up of thunderstorms

[feederband]

On radar it looks like it might be tighting up a little as well....

[artist]

doesn't look like that dry air is doing much to that center core does it?

[jpigott]

melbourne radar also shows the rain bands becoming more intense and it looks like the pocket of dry air is circulating out

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z THU SEP 08 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 50SE 50SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 28.7N 79.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 30.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 79.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[Hyperstorm]

The storm is definitely trying to mix out the dry air. Each of these bursts will keep the core of circulation strong and devoid of dry air. One thing to point out, however, is that these bursts generally don't persist for long when there is dry air surrounding a storm.

Pressure should drop several millibars with this latest burst and bring it very close to hurricane status...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHEILA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. RAIN BANDS WITH STRONG WINDS IN SQUALLS
HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

This afternoons recon will find lower pressures.

[cjrciadt]

Ignore the BAMM

[HURAKAN]

The track continues to be problematic but interesting. To where will Ophelia move and how intense will it be? Question that everyone in the NHC is asking.

[CronkPSU]

The track continues to be problematic but interesting. To where will Ophelia move and how intense will it be? Question that everyone in the NHC is asking.

LOL we still have the dartboard of uncertainty

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE REFLECTIVIES IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE...WITH DOPPLER
VELOCITIES AROUND 65 KT AT 6000 FT. THE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS ARE
SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST. A WIND GUST TO 41 KT WAS JUST
MEASURED AT THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN SITE. THERE IS WELL-DEVELOPED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. OPHELIA IS OVER
WARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15
KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE UNTIL 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER THAN INDICATED.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
STORM AROUND 18Z.

STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...AND THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE OVERALL MOTION SINCE YESTERDAY. OPHELIA IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 2
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELLS. THERE ARE NO APPARENT SYNOPTIC-
SCALE FEATURES TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT MOTION. HOWEVER THE GFS
AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT SOME WESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
NEAR OPHELIA AND PUSH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER EASTWARD
MOTION. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SLOWS TO A CRAWL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND LOOPS OPHELIA BACK
TOWARD THE COAST BY 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 28.6N 79.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 28.7N 79.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 29.5N 78.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 78.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 31.0N 76.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 76.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 30.5N 76.0W 70 KT

[HURAKAN]

[CocoCreek]

It's a good thing (relatively speaking since it has to be somewhere) that Ophelia is where she is. If she was further North off the coast of South Carolina or further South off the coast of Palm Beach/Broward County, where the coast juts out much further East than it does further up the coast, we'd be looking at major flooding and even worse beach erosion.

She's been sitting and spinning in generally the same spot now for hours and hours and the most concentrated rain bands are pummelling the same real estate (albeit ocean) over and over. So for now, I guess we can say we are lucky!

[shaggy]

LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER EASTWARD
MOTION. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SLOWS TO A CRAWL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND LOOPS OPHELIA BACK
TOWARD THE COAST BY 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.

at this point if they are not anticipating anymore eastward motion then it is probably a good idea for everyone to check their supplies from central florida to the carolinas.The problem is the blocking high is it going to be strong enough to push it back westward towards Fl/GA or is it going to have a weak western edge and shunt it northward towards SC/NC.On the modles the high that blocks it seems to be breaking down on the western edge some too so time will tell and per her slow movement time we will have!

[chicagopizza]

What's wierd is if you even bring up the possibility of Ophelia striking close to here,you get a look from most like you must be from out of town, nothing hits here. (which I cringe over-saying never feels like tempting fate!) Anyhow, I am keeping an eye on this thing, but also keeping away from that subject when talking to most locals.

[HURAKAN]

Well, that's crazy! What is Accuweather thinking about!