Hurricane Emily Advisories

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Innotech
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#561 Postby Innotech » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:47 pm

shawn67 wrote:I guess that has been my issue with what some people have been saying about it weakening...things aren't adding up...cloud tops are cooling while the eye disappears??? I do think ERC gets bandied about too much on this forum but that is what seems to be happening in this case.

Shawn


its ok to suspect an ERC in the case of concentric looking radar and a intensifying core, even if hte eye is getting less distinmct. The eye really isnt the most rleiable indicator of a storms intensity anyway for just that reason.
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#562 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:50 pm

Scorpion wrote:Everyone says "oh they will intensify soon" when its actually weakening. 100 knot landfall IMO.


One night you said this was "dead" when it rapidly intensified from a TS to a hurricane. So what makes you any better?
Last edited by Thunder44 on Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#563 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:51 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Everyone says "oh they will intensify soon" when its actually weakening. 100 knot landfall IMO.


One night you said this was "dead" when it rapidly intensified from a TS to a hurricane. So what makes you any better?


Good one. 8-)

That "dead" system now goes down in history as the strongest July hurricane on record in the Atlantic.
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#564 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:55 pm

Scorpion wrote:Everyone says "oh they will intensify soon" when its actually weakening. 100 knot landfall IMO.


After that quote about Emily being dead the other night your credibility is 0.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#565 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:55 pm

Thats the tropics for you
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#566 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:01 pm

NHC is being a bit too conservative with its new forecast track.The change definitely increases Texas hit chances :eek:
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#567 Postby shawn67 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:04 pm

Looking at the Cancun radar (I had trouble viewing it at first as well you need to right click over the image and select "Show Picture" if it doesn't come up right away) is the small semi circle with the darkest reds the decaying eyewall and the larger semi circle the new eyewall???

Shawn
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#568 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:06 pm

ERC
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#569 Postby curtinnc » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:09 pm

Naaaa, the ULL is giving her fits right now...
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#570 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:09 pm

You should all stop refreshing the Cancun radar...NHC is probably using that same link and you are depriving them of the information! :lol:
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#571 Postby shawn67 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:10 pm

gkrangers wrote:You should all stop refreshing the Cancun radar...NHC is probably using that same link and you are depriving them of the information! :lol:


I noticed that the page was loading s l o w l y I hope we dont overwhelm the site

Shawn
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#572 Postby JTD » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:23 pm

Interesting that the cloud tops are cooling and the structure is getting better. That's all Cancun needs. A STRENGTHENING category 4 hitting them (if it is, in fact, strengthening)
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#573 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:24 pm

jason0509 wrote:Interesting that the cloud tops are cooling and the structure is getting better. That's all Cancun needs. A STRENGTHENING category 4 hitting them (if it is, in fact, strengthening)


I doubt its strentghening, but I will concede that I dont think its weakening anymore.
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#574 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:30 pm

I still stand by my 100 knot statement. There is alot of denial but 100-105 knots seems to be the consensus for major hurricanes hitting land in recent times.
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#575 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:37 pm

Scorpion wrote:I still stand by my 100 knot statement. There is alot of denial but 100-105 knots seems to be the consensus for major hurricanes hitting land in recent times.

Ivan and Dennis both smacked Cuba full-on, and Charlie did a number on Florida. (Ivan also wasted Grenada.) That's three cat-4 land-strikers in two years.
Last edited by mike18xx on Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#576 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:37 pm

Those are islands though. And Charley bombed into a Cat 4, he was not a major for several days.
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#577 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:39 pm

Florida is not an island, and Charlie was moving NNE and intensifying at landfall.
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#578 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:42 pm

Scorpion wrote:Those are islands though. And Charley bombed into a Cat 4, he was not a major for several days.
You've just introduced an additional limiting factor into your data-set: Now you only want to talk about land(but not island)-striking hurricanes that were "major for several days" -- are there enough of those in the historical record to provide an adequate statistical base to work with?
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#579 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:44 pm

mike18xx wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Those are islands though. And Charley bombed into a Cat 4, he was not a major for several days.
You've just introduced an additional limiting factor into your data-set: Now you only want to talk about land(but not island)-striking hurricanes that were "major for several days" -- are there enough of those in the historical record to provide an adequate statistical base to work with?


Good point...and I thought the same thing...makes the whole arguement kinda dumb actually...and statistically means absolutely NOTHING.
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#580 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:45 pm

I can name so many storms that were supposed to be "the big one" but ended up as duds. Such as: Georges,Floyd,Isidore, Lily, Isabel,Frances,Ivan,Jeanne,Dennis,and now Emily. Thats just in the past 7 years. And we have one significant landfall where it was actually not weakening, which was Charley.
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