Hurricane Emily Advisories

[cycloneye]

I don't think she will even make it back to a cat 3....she looks horrible right now...thats a combo of cooler water and shear from the ULL....BTW is not moving currently....it was suppose to be gone by now...

Agree on that.It can go up to cat 2 but by the time it gets it's act together land will be upon her in less than 36 hours.Unless it bombs rapidly I think at the most a weak 2.

[Brent]

Emily has 36 hours til landfall... Dennis had about 30 hours from the time he left Cuba til he made landfall, and the waters are undisturbed. The inner core didn't collapse so there's no reason why this won't intensity.

Well don't I feel sheepish.. she's been chuggin along at a pretty good clip so thought she wasn't going to take all that long ...what i get for talking before looking at the track timing.. I take back my timing statement...

Actually she is moving at a good clip but will slow down as she turns westward.

[Wnghs2007]

I don't think she will even make it back to a cat 3....she looks horrible right now...thats a combo of cooler water and shear from the ULL....BTW is not moving currently....it was suppose to be gone by now...

Agree on that.It can go up to cat 2 but by the time it gets it's act together land will be upon her in less than 36 hours.Unless it bombs rapidly I think at the most a weak 2.

Agree totally with that statement, however, there are suprises in the Tropical World and you cant beat 30c + waters.

[Anonymous]

With the inner core, and warm favorable waters it can indeed bomb back to a Cat 3 or even a Cat 4. If Dennis went 90 mph at 8am to 135 mph by 8pm, then Emily certainly can as well.

[PTrackerLA]

I think the Yucatan took a punch out of her she won't be able to recover from. MAYBE a weak cat 3 at landfall IMO.

[Swimdude]

Woah! Just read my email-update... 75 mph winds. The Yucatan sure did a number on Emily! However, I don't doubt another "Dennis-like" scenario...

[deltadog03]

innercore is good, but that ULL is giving her hell, pardon the word...also, if that thing sits there and dosn't move...then i don't see too much of a W movement happening...

[Normandy]

With the inner core, and warm favorable waters it can indeed bomb back to a Cat 3 or even a Cat 4. If Dennis went 90 mph at 8am to 135 mph by 8pm, then Emily certainly can as well.

Also keep in mind that recon found similar winds when Dennis remerged out of Cuba. And Emily has warmer water to go over than Dennis did.

[jkt21787]

With the inner core, and warm favorable waters it can indeed bomb back to a Cat 3 or even a Cat 4. If Dennis went 90 mph at 8am to 135 mph by 8pm, then Emily certainly can as well.

Also keep in mind that recon found similar winds when Dennis remerged out of Cuba. And Emily has warmer water to go over than Dennis did.

That is very true. NHC overestimated intensity at the beginnin, the recon FL winds only supported a strong tropical storm If I remember right, but NHC kept Dennis at a cat1/cat2 borderline for a while.

[Normandy]

Thats true, so why did they decide to weaken THIS one....they are inconsistent with their intensities at times...

[HURAKAN]

Thats true, so why did they decide to weaken THIS one....they are inconsistent with their intensities at times...

Good question, but only the NHC has the answer.

[jkt21787]

Thats true, so why did they decide to weaken THIS one....they are inconsistent with their intensities at times...

Not sure. Good question indeed. I wish I knew.

[clfenwi]

Thats true, so why did they decide to weaken THIS one....they are inconsistent with their intensities at times...

The close of the 11 AM discussion

"UPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY
USEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY."

suggests that they had a good idea of what land was doing/did to Emily. I think in the case of Dennis there was less information of that sort, so with a less complete data set they opted on the side of caution.

[Normandy]

Thats true, so why did they decide to weaken THIS one....they are inconsistent with their intensities at times...

The close of the 11 AM discussion

"UPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY
USEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY."

suggests that they had a good idea of what land was doing/did to Emily. I think in the case of Dennis there was less information of that sort, so with a less complete data set they opted on the side of caution.

Recon finding TS winds is a prettttttty good indicator that it wasnt a 90 mph hurricane.

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z MON JUL 18 2005

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS
FOR YUCATAN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 91.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 91.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 90.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 91.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...EMILY LOST IT PUNCH OVER YUCATAN...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS
FOR YUCATAN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 480 MILES...
770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEARING THE
COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION JUST NORTH
OF EMILY RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH...115 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...22.3 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 182042
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO EMILY TODAY AND CONFIRMED
THAT THE HURRICANE WEAKENED AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO 984 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS MEASURED BY THE
SFMR SUPPORT ONLY A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE INNER CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WAS DISRUPTED OVER YUCATAN BUT SATELLITE STILL SHOWS
SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH A FAIR OUTFLOW. THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS...ABOUT 30 DEGREE CELSIUS...OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOON AND THE SHEAR IS LOW ALONG THE TRACK.
IN ADDITION...ALL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 200 MB
ANTICYLONE OVER EMILY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE EMILY WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER YUCATAN...IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CYCLONE WILL
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

EMILY CONTINUES ON TRACK...ABOUT 295/14 KNOTS AROUND THE DEEP LAYER
MEAN HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND COULD EVEN BUILD WESTWARD. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER THE STATE OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHEAST MEXICO IN ABOUT
24 TO 36 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE
TRACK...OR A HURRICANE LARGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.3N 91.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 24.0N 95.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[clfenwi]

Thats true, so why did they decide to weaken THIS one....they are inconsistent with their intensities at times...

The close of the 11 AM discussion

"UPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY
USEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY."

suggests that they had a good idea of what land was doing/did to Emily. I think in the case of Dennis there was less information of that sort, so with a less complete data set they opted on the side of caution.

Recon finding TS winds is a prettttttty good indicator that it wasnt a 90 mph hurricane.

I concur... I wasn't suggesting otherwise... I was suggesting that in this case they had lock,stock,barrel proof of her strength and that in the case of Dennis they lacked surface obs that would enable them to be more certain...

[Normandy]

Thats true, so why did they decide to weaken THIS one....they are inconsistent with their intensities at times...

The close of the 11 AM discussion

"UPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY
USEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY."

suggests that they had a good idea of what land was doing/did to Emily. I think in the case of Dennis there was less information of that sort, so with a less complete data set they opted on the side of caution.

Recon finding TS winds is a prettttttty good indicator that it wasnt a 90 mph hurricane.

I concur... I wasn't suggesting otherwise... I was suggesting that in this case they had lock,stock,barrel proof of her strength and that in the case of Dennis they lacked surface obs that would enable them to be more certain...

Here is my opinion...and itll prolly get bashed. They kept Dennis as a 90 mph hurricane because it was certain to hit the US.....they prolly more easily lowered Emily's intensity (Even when recon suggests it was STRONGER than Dennis remerging) because they forecast it into Mexico (IE no definite US threat).

just my thoughts.