Hurricane Katrina

[SouthFloridawx]

Katrina is waiting for the NHC to make a forcast to decide what she is going to do.

[wxman57]

Call me crazy but based on satellite presentation she has taken a HUGE jog to the SW-SSW.

Am I crazy?

You're not locating the center properly. It's not that small orange speck, it's north of there around 24.7N. No drastic SSW-SW movement.

[Hyperstorm]

Not ONLY that...The dreaded thing I was fearing is beginning to occur.

The storm is gathering moisture in a band from the afternoon thunderstorms in Florida! This generally means that the storm is doing its BEST to mix out the dry air, which has kept the northern eyewall to be dry. This is also an indication that the storm is ready to become more powerful and MUCH larger in size.

I expect a full-blown category 3 hurricane when Air Force Recon reaches the storm tomorrow morning...

[HouTXmetro]

Call me crazy but based on satellite presentation she has taken a HUGE jog to the SW-SSW.

Am I crazy?

You're not locating the center properly. It's not that small orange speck, it's north of there around 24.7N-24.8N. No drastic SSW-SW movement.

Thanks, I thought that was the eye trying to form.

[Stratosphere747]

It's hard to believe how far south she has traveled.

Call me crazy but based on satellite presentation she has taken a HUGE jog to the SW-SSW.

Am I crazy?

Not crazy HouTx...But it is not a "HUGE" jog...

Slowly losing lat though, IMO.

Where is AFM when you need him...

[wxman57]

Call me crazy but based on satellite presentation she has taken a HUGE jog to the SW-SSW.

Am I crazy?

You're not locating the center properly. It's not that small orange speck, it's north of there around 24.7N-24.8N. No drastic SSW-SW movement.

Thanks, I thought that was the eye trying to form.

THat spot IS on the southern part of the eye, though. Could be as far south as 24.6N now. But no big shift.

[mtm4319]

THat spot IS on the southern part of the eye, though. Could be as far south as 24.6N now. But no big shift.

I spot a clear eye on radar at 24.6.

[Sanibel]

Even more WSW now.


Estimate 250* track since 5pm position.


Katrina showing visible improvement in eye shape. Wind increases of 5-10mph possible...

[Stratosphere747]

Even more WSW now.


Estimate 250* track since 5pm position.


Katrina showing visible improvement in eye shape. Wind increases of 5-10mph possible...

I keep thinking that myself Sanibel...

It's ever so slightly, but still losing lat.

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z SAT AUG 27 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 55SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 83.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

tropical weather information.


755
WTNT32 KNHC 270247
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 115
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND CONSISTS OF
A PERFECT A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN WHICH BEGINS OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND WRAPS AROUND A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
BAND IS PROBABLY PRODUCING NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON IR IMAGES...RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN KATRINA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TYPICAL 200 MB
ANTICYLONE...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPWARD TO THAT
LEVEL. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES.
IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS
KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124
KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS.

KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
250 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. IN FACT...DATA FROM THE
NOAA JET JUST RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGIST ONBOARD INDICATE THAT
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. KATRINA WILL LIKELY TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY AND
BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.6N 83.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

[dhweather]

Luis - the monday dot IS OVER MY HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

Oh my David.

[hicksta]

Still think they are to east

[Ixolib]

Luis - the monday dot IS OVER MY HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!!

...and ridiculously close to mine!! But... A lot can change in three days. Whatcha thinking, David?

Wonder if LindaLoo is gonna sticky the "Severe Weather Check-in" thread??

[simplykristi]

OMG If that track is right, NO would get slammed.

Kristi

[Hyperstorm]

Two VERY important statements we have to watch out for:

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TYPICAL 200 MB
ANTICYLONE...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPWARD TO THAT
LEVEL. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES.
IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

[dhweather]

Oh my David.

Indeed Luis!

I know what I'll be doing tomorrow, and it won't be GUTS/WATS/EATS!

Well, if I get 30 minutes or so, I'll do a GUTS, but that's it.