Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[JamesFromMaine2]

Well there are now 2 models taking wilma up the East Coast of the US The UKmet has been doing it since saturday any one think it will happen and how if it does how strong do you think it would be?

[floridahurricaneguy]

Doesnt looks some models are shifting a north a little? I still got a scary feeing tampa/sarasota could be caught off guard.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The dark blue line is the 6z run of GFDL.

One minor thing to note is it has it tagging the Yucatan...

[CronkPSU]

Hmmmm. Looks like she's doing a bit of a loop. Not going to do a wobble watch though, since the models are unanimous on a NW/N/NE track. HHmmm.

not sure any computer model knows how to handle a storm that drops like 85 mb in 12 hours, who knows what kind of atmosphere this thing could create for it self, that is a crazy looking loop right now, i also assume it looks like much bigger wobbles because of such a small eye

[ericinmia]

The new 06z doesn't initialize the storm in its current state. It has not initialized its strength and wind field properly as just a start.

[floridahurricaneguy]

What is everyones track thinking now? Does nhc still think it could shift?

Matt

[CronkPSU]

i hate when the advisories are late

[Zadok]

I'm starting to see a slight northward trend developing in the models. Anyone else see this?

[cycloneye]

040
WTNT34 KNHC 191158
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE
CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE
LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



Confirmed the 884 mbs.

[AZS]

882 mb
175 MPH

[CronkPSU]

...Wilma maintaining category five status...record pressure
confirmed by aircraft crew...Based on dropsonde and flight-level data from an Air Force plane
just returning from its mission in Wilma...the minimum central
pressure is estimated to be 882 mb...26.05 inches. This is the
lowest pressure on record for a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.

[Foladar0]

I just heard on local news that it *should* weaken to 90 to 110 mph at landfall which would be great news for Florida! Comments?

Local Mets here in S Florida are keeping her a Cat 4 to the West Coast of Fl.

Last I checked, I live in S Florida too but seeing cat 3 at most to west coast..

[no advance]

Joe B still thinks there is a 10 percent chance of her moving into Mex. I sure hope so. A guy on the poker show got lucky last night. I hope the same happens for SW Fl.

[cycloneye]

The 884 mb pressure was confirmed according to the 8 AM Advisorie.

[Thunder44]

Luis they confirmed the pressure of the storm was actually a little lower at 882mb.

[HURAKAN]

884 mb is confirmed, but the 882 mb is now the record, right?

[gilbert88]

Joe B still thinks there is a 10 percent chance of her moving into Mex. I sure hope so. A guy on the poker show got lucky last night. I hope the same happens for SW Fl.

You're not a very nice person, are you?

[CronkPSU]

Joe B still thinks there is a 10 percent chance of her moving into Mex. I sure hope so. A guy on the poker show got lucky last night. I hope the same happens for SW Fl.

LOL that is an awesome analogy

[JamesFromMaine2]

The 884 mb pressure was confirmed according to the 8 AM Advisorie.

the confirmed pressure is 882mb not 884mb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SotabusterFL]

Ok to me it looks if anything the models are forming more of a concensus on landfall between ft. meyers and naples. Now a local met here in sarasota Dennis Phillips has been talking about two lows converging or something like that. Does anyone have any explaination on this or what would happen if they didnt converge?