Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Swimdude]

Here we go... The strengthening cycle begins...

[Swimdude]

Note on the following image... Seems that they either...

a) Didn't record where hurricane strength winds were recorded for a small period of time

or

b) Suddenly found a HUGE explosion of hurricane-force winds.

Sorry... Just the size of that last red blob seem too huge.

[jkt21787]

I think thats the TS force wind field...

[Swimdude]

Issued at: 12:33 AM CDT 7/19/05 (gateway).


Emily moving west-northwestward with little chang in strength,

A hurricane warning is in effect for northeastern mexico from south of the texas/mexico border to la cruz and a tropical storm warning is in effect from south of la cruz to cabo rojo. A hurricane or tropical storm warning means that hurricane or tropical storm conditions, respectively, are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch is in effect from baffin bay texas southward to the texas/mexico border. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 1 am cdt, 0600z, the center of hurricane emily was located near latitude 23.2 north, longitude 92.9 west or about 320 miles, 514 km, east of la pesca mexico and about 340 miles, 545 km, southeast of brownsville texas.

Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, 24 km/hr, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track the center will be near the northeast coast of mexico late Tuesday.

Reports from an air force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph, 150 km/hr, with higher gusts. Emily is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles, 55 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles, 230 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 984 mb, 29.06 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

Additional rainfall amounts are expected to be 2 inches or less across yucatan. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible over the lower rio grande valley of south texas and northeast mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.

Repeating the 1 am cdt position, 23.2 n, 92.9 w. Movement toward, west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 90 mph. Minimum central pressure, 984 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 4 am cdt.

[mtm4319]

HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...EMILY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS MEXICO
BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
440 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 300 MILES... 485
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...23.5 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[mtm4319]

HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EMILY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 90 KT...THE WINDS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ON THE LAST PASS...AND THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS DECREASED. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
COVERED THE EYE SEEN EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT...AND
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE NEXT PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE IN EMILY ABOUT 0930Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13...WITH THE EYE WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300
DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE AIRCRAFT FIXES. EMILY REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HR. RAWINSONDE DATA FROM TEXAS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AS 20-30 METER
HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE EMILY IN THE RIGHT PLACE.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE BIG
QUESTION OF WHEN AND HOW SHARP WILL THE TURN BE. SINCE THE STORM
IS NOT YET OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...THE NEW TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. HOWEVER...IF THE TURN IS LATER OR MORE GRADUAL THAN
FORECAST...EMILY COULD MAKE LANDFALL CLOSER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WITH THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND THE RETURN OF STRONG
CONVECTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO
REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...A VALUE SOMEWHAT
ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS GFDL
RUN. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR.

IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO TEXAS. THEREFORE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 23.5N 93.5W 80 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 24.1N 95.2W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 24.5N 97.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 99.6W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.5N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

Here are todays advisories starting with the 7 AM CDT advisorie.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 425
KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
EMILY IS COULD BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...23.7 N... 94.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...EMILY BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS...
...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES... 335 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...23.9 N... 94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z TUE JUL 19 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 94.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......125NE 100SE 50SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 94.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.4N 96.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.6N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 55SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.6N 100.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.6N 102.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 94.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[donsutherland1]

The steady decrease in pressure continues. Over the past 3 hours, the pressure has fallen ~1.7 mb per hour. The previous 3 hour period saw a drop of 1.0 mb per hour. I would not be surprised if Emily reaches Category 2 by or even a little before the 2 pm advisory.

[Brent]

[djtil]

notice...no cone in texas.

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

DATA FROM THE NWS BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN AT A RATE OF ABOUT
1 MB PER HOUR THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS HAS NOT EQUATED TO AN
INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...YET. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 92 KT WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE
OUTBOUND LEG AT ABOUT 1445Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE
WOBBLE ABOUT THIS MEAN MOTION...WITH A RECENT WOBBLE TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THIS TYPE OF MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR HURRICANES THAT
ARE UNDERGOING RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. UPPER
AIR DATA AT 19/12Z INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL 290-295 DEGREE MOTION IS
PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE
WEST AFTER THAT. THIS MOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ORECAST AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
EMILY BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPEICALLY SINCE
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EYE
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ARE ACTUALLY T6.0/115 KT AND HIGHER...BUT RECON
DATA INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOT THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29.5C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.

IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN
IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC EXPERIMENTAL
PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.9N 94.5W 80 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 24.4N 96.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 24.6N 98.0W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.6N 100.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 21/1200Z 24.6N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
72HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTS...
...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES... 300 KM... NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT
210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 95 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM. DURING PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002 LOCATED
ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH. OUTER
RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE COASTS OF
FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE NOON CDT POSITION...24.0 N... 94.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 95 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[swimaster20]

By the 4/5 PM advisory I think we will have a Cat 2

[HURAKAN]

By the 4/5 PM advisory I think we will have a Cat 2

Just needs one more mile to be Cat. 2, 96 mph is the starting point.

[Brent]

FWIW... the intermediates will be every 2 hours from now til landfall because of being able to track the eye on radar. Complete Advisories are still every 6 hours unless needed more often.

[cycloneye]

FWIW... the intermediates will be every 2 hours from now til landfall because of being able to track the eye on radar. Complete Advisories are still every 6 hours and unless needed more often.

And Position Estimates will be given between Advisories.

[cycloneye]

WTNT55 KNHC 191748
TCEAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND 195 MILES...315
KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER STEWART