BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
...EMILY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL AREAS......
...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING S IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM CDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES... 300 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. DURING PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002 LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 67
MPH...110 KM/HR. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF
FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 2 PM CDT POSITION...24.1 N... 95.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Emily Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Brent
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HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
AT 3 PM CDT...2000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND 175
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
AT 3 PM CDT...2000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND 175
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
FORECASTER STEWART
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#neversummer
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Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3247
- Age: 40
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
...Emily continues to get better organized as it approaches
northeastern Mexico and far south Texas coastal areas......
...Emily expected to become a major hurricane before landfall...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Lower Texas coast from Port
Mansfield southward to the Texas/Mexico border.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for northeastern Mexico from
south of the Texas/Mexico border to La Cruz and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect from south of La Cruz to Cabo Rojo.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Texas. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 24.3 north... longitude 95.6 west or about 145 miles...
230 km... east-northeast of La Pesca Mexico and about 160 miles...
260 km...southeast of Brownsville Texas.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected to occur late tonight or
early Wednesday morning. This motion should bring the center of
Emily near the northeastern coast of Mexico by Wednesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12
hours or so...and Emily could still become a major category three
hurricane before it makes landfall Wednesday morning.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km. During the past hour...NOAA buoy 42002
located about 120 miles northeast of Emily reported a wind gust to
76 mph...110 km/hr. Outer rainbands bringing locally heavy rainfall
and strong gusty winds will continue to spread across the coasts of
far south Texas and northeastern Mexico this afternoon and tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft reports is 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 10 feet above normal tide
levels...with higher levels in bays...accompanied by large and
dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north
of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected over southern
Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley...with isolated 10 to 12 inch
amounts possible. Heavier rainfall is likely over northeastern
Mexico where 5 to 10 inches are likely...with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over far south Texas tonight...and
over southern and south-central Texas on Wednesday.
Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...24.3 N... 95.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 6 PM CDT and 8 PM CDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
northeastern Mexico and far south Texas coastal areas......
...Emily expected to become a major hurricane before landfall...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Lower Texas coast from Port
Mansfield southward to the Texas/Mexico border.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for northeastern Mexico from
south of the Texas/Mexico border to La Cruz and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect from south of La Cruz to Cabo Rojo.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Texas. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 24.3 north... longitude 95.6 west or about 145 miles...
230 km... east-northeast of La Pesca Mexico and about 160 miles...
260 km...southeast of Brownsville Texas.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected to occur late tonight or
early Wednesday morning. This motion should bring the center of
Emily near the northeastern coast of Mexico by Wednesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12
hours or so...and Emily could still become a major category three
hurricane before it makes landfall Wednesday morning.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km. During the past hour...NOAA buoy 42002
located about 120 miles northeast of Emily reported a wind gust to
76 mph...110 km/hr. Outer rainbands bringing locally heavy rainfall
and strong gusty winds will continue to spread across the coasts of
far south Texas and northeastern Mexico this afternoon and tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft reports is 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 10 feet above normal tide
levels...with higher levels in bays...accompanied by large and
dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north
of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected over southern
Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley...with isolated 10 to 12 inch
amounts possible. Heavier rainfall is likely over northeastern
Mexico where 5 to 10 inches are likely...with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over far south Texas tonight...and
over southern and south-central Texas on Wednesday.
Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...24.3 N... 95.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 6 PM CDT and 8 PM CDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z TUE JUL 19 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 95.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 85NE 55SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 100SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 95.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 95.1W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 85NE 55SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 95.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z TUE JUL 19 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 95.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 85NE 55SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 100SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 95.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 95.1W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 85NE 55SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 95.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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#neversummer
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Anonymous
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139167
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT45 KNHC 192056
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005
DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT EMILY
IS STILL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED ABOUT 14 MB IN THE PAST 4 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 96 KT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG
AT 1939Z. HOWEVER...THE RECON WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED A TRIPLE WIND
MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT ABOUT 20...40...AND 50 N MI
FROM THE CENTER. THIS HAS LIKELY SPREAD OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND...FORTUNATELY...NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH LIKE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD TYPICALLY
SUPPORT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE IN ALL
QUADRANTS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
WHEN THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES ARE SMOOTHED OUT...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 290/10. RADAR AND RECON DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE HAVE PROBABLY STABILIZED NOW. SPECIAL
18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. AS SUCH...A GENERAL 285-290 DEGREES MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS.
EVEN IF EMILY WAS TO MAINTAIN A 295 DEGREE MOTION...THE EYE WOULD
STILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE GFDL
AND GFS MODELS ARE ALREADY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION...SO THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A TAD NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL EMILY'S WINDS FINALLY ADJUST TO THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE? THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ALSO CONTRACTED AS
SEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THE TRIPLE WIND
MAXIMUM IS STILL NOTED IN THE RADAR DATA...BUT THE REFLECTIVITY IN
THOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAS DECREASED. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT THE
OUTER WIND FIELD IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE
INNER WIND FIELD TO SPIN UP. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF 85F AND WARMER...A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO RIGHT UP
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE ROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC
EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.3N 95.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 100 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
A very interesting discussion to read that has many important things to digest.
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005
DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT EMILY
IS STILL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED ABOUT 14 MB IN THE PAST 4 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 96 KT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG
AT 1939Z. HOWEVER...THE RECON WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED A TRIPLE WIND
MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT ABOUT 20...40...AND 50 N MI
FROM THE CENTER. THIS HAS LIKELY SPREAD OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND...FORTUNATELY...NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH LIKE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD TYPICALLY
SUPPORT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE IN ALL
QUADRANTS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
WHEN THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES ARE SMOOTHED OUT...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 290/10. RADAR AND RECON DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE HAVE PROBABLY STABILIZED NOW. SPECIAL
18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. AS SUCH...A GENERAL 285-290 DEGREES MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS.
EVEN IF EMILY WAS TO MAINTAIN A 295 DEGREE MOTION...THE EYE WOULD
STILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE GFDL
AND GFS MODELS ARE ALREADY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION...SO THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A TAD NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL EMILY'S WINDS FINALLY ADJUST TO THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE? THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ALSO CONTRACTED AS
SEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THE TRIPLE WIND
MAXIMUM IS STILL NOTED IN THE RADAR DATA...BUT THE REFLECTIVITY IN
THOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAS DECREASED. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT THE
OUTER WIND FIELD IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE
INNER WIND FIELD TO SPIN UP. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF 85F AND WARMER...A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO RIGHT UP
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE ROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC
EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.3N 95.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 100 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
A very interesting discussion to read that has many important things to digest.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
baitism wrote:What did danny do?
It became a hurricane in the mid-latitudes with a 1002mb central pressure.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat
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Portastorm
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HURAKAN
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HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2003
...DANNY BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES...840
KM...SOUTH OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND.
DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN
TO THE EAST THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DANNY THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE
ATLANTIC 2003 SEASON. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...39.6 N... 52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
When Danny became a hurricane, pressure was at 1006 mb.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2003
...DANNY BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES...840
KM...SOUTH OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND.
DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN
TO THE EAST THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DANNY THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE
ATLANTIC 2003 SEASON. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...39.6 N... 52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
When Danny became a hurricane, pressure was at 1006 mb.
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Brent
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jason0509 wrote:WOW WOW WOW by Stacey Stewart. WOW
Stacey Stewart continues to amaze!!!!
I agree... Stewart is the best!!! He was the best last year during Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.
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