Franklin Advisories

Rainband · #81 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:59 pm

gkrangers wrote:748
WTNT61 KNHC 212256
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005
AT ABOUT 630 PM EDT... 2230Z... DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO 40 MPH. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 8 PM EDT... 0000Z.

FORECASTER KNABB

my freakening sat must be broken. I GIVE UP :eek:

#82 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:10 pm

joseph01 wrote:Wouldn't it be nice to be a fly on the wall at NHC and know exactly what that loopy forcast track is based on?

I agree, I have to admit that I had prepared a track with a curve off to the east like ALL of the dynamic model guidance is indicating and the NHC completely floored me with that loop forecast. I checked every level of the GFS at 12Z and 18Z and can't find it doing anything but taking the storm off to the ENE and out to sea. Can someone point me to a single dynamic model that has it making a loop? The BAMS/BAMM/BAMM are not dynamic models, they assume that current steering level winds will continue for 5 days. The 12Z GFDL dissipated it in 18 hours. The 06Z GFDL brought it south of Bermuda at 5 days. What is the NHC looking at??????

#83 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:10 pm

Rainband wrote:
gkrangers wrote:748
WTNT61 KNHC 212256
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005
AT ABOUT 630 PM EDT... 2230Z... DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO 40 MPH. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 8 PM EDT... 0000Z.

FORECASTER KNABB
my freakening sat must be broken. I GIVE UP

Well there you have it. The 6th named storm in July. Unbelievable....

<RICKY>

Rainband · #84 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:15 pm

Like I said. I just dont see it.

Website · #85 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:16 pm

Rainband wrote:Like I said. I just dont see it.

Sorry... but, despite the convection(which will flare up tonight, I mentioned this earlier), the recon found winds to support a TS, so it's a TS.

Rainband · #86 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:17 pm

I guess visible is more accurate. I am done with IR.

PTrackerLA · #87 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:19 pm

Rainband wrote:I guess visible is more accurate. I am done with IR.

For weak storm, IR stinks. Stick with the visible.

Agua · #88 Postby **Agua** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:19 pm

Rainband wrote:my freakening sat must be broken. I GIVE UP

LOLOLOLOL

Rainband · #89 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:22 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
Rainband wrote:I guess visible is more accurate. I am done with IR.

For weak storm, IR stinks. Stick with the visible.

from now on. Learning is good. Thanks

#90 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:30 pm

Well, the 18Z GFDL certainly shows no loop. Of course, it dissipates it at 24 hours. The 24 hour point is right about where I had it on my track at that time. It's also about 50 nautical miles faster than the NHC track for 24 hours.

WHXX04 KWBC 212323

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 24.7 75.3 300./11.1
6 25.3 76.7 295./14.0
12 26.4 77.3 331./11.9
18 27.1 77.5 341./ 7.7
24 28.3 77.3 11./12.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 24 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

#91 Postby **seaswing** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:34 pm

I'm having Jeanne flashbacks looking at that forecast map!!!!

Yep, without the same intensity (yet) :sadly:

Website · #92 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:36 pm

seaswing wrote:
I'm having Jeanne flashbacks looking at that forecast map!!!!

Yep, without the same intensity (yet)

If it sits out there long enough it will easily get to that... :eek:

Eyes2theSkies · #93 Postby **Eyes2theSkies** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:36 pm

yeah this is all to familar

#94 Postby **fci** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:37 pm

Brent wrote:
seaswing wrote:
I'm having Jeanne flashbacks looking at that forecast map!!!!

Yep, without the same intensity (yet)

If it sits out there long enough it will easily get to that...

I just don't think so..

#95 Postby **Wthrman13** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:47 pm

The BAMS/BAMM/BAMM are not dynamic models, they assume that current steering level winds will continue for 5 days.

I'm pretty sure the BAM models use vertically averaged horizontal winds from the operational GFS forecast fields, which of course will change over the course of the model integration. Thus, I don't think they just assume the same flow will be in place for 5 days straight.

Website · #96 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:56 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0000Z FRI JUL 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W AT 22/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W AT 22/0000Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 76.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

Website · #97 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:01 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2... CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

...CORRECTED TO ADD INITIAL POSITION...

...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF ELEUTHERA IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES
... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

#98 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:06 pm

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS AT LEAST 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED DURING THE
FIRST 48 HOURS BUT REMAINS 60 KT AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE.
INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12... AND THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0000Z 25.8N 76.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W 60 KT

#99 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:07 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:
The BAMS/BAMM/BAMM are not dynamic models, they assume that current steering level winds will continue for 5 days.

I'm pretty sure the BAM models use vertically averaged horizontal winds from the operational GFS forecast fields, which of course will change over the course of the model integration. Thus, I don't think they just assume the same flow will be in place for 5 days straight.

You could be right, I wasn't sure if the BAMs just initialized with the GFS or if they actually considered some forecast changes. But I thought these beta advection models don't really incorporate any physics and they should not be trusted out of the deep tropics in a changing flow pattern.

Derek Ortt · #100 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:12 pm

they shouldn't be trusted out of the deep tropics. Only if the environment is barotropic should they even be touched with a 10 mile pole

Franklin Advisories

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