Franklin Advisories

yoda · #61 Postby **yoda** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:40 pm

Just about to do the same jkt... and I agree with their decision.

#62 Postby **baygirl_1** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:43 pm

THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

Okay... if this thing's going to be slow moving and loop around basically the same area, won't it be causing upwelling? that would affect it's strengthening, right? or is the heat content of water in that area such that it would support strengthening despite slow speed and lingering?

(i'm full of questions!

)

slowjoe · #63 Postby **slowjoe** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:48 pm

It's rumble time for Florida residents.

You panhandle cats don't count. :lol:

#64 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:53 pm

Look at the forecast loop.

#65 Postby **joseph01** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:12 pm

Wouldn't it be nice to be a fly on the wall at NHC and know exactly what that loopy forcast track is based on?

canegrl04 · #66 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:15 pm

Somebody at the NHC smokin somthing ? :roll:

Whats with the loop dee loops?

gkrangers · #67 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:15 pm

joseph01 wrote:Wouldn't it be nice to be a fly on the wall at NHC and know exactly what that loopy forcast track is based on?

The NHC issues a discussion at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM to explain the forecast track and stuff.

Here is their reasoning...

"THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.
THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB CIRCULATION NORTHWARD
AND THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL/500
MB CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND STALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND
ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST."

jkt21787 · #68 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:23 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Somebody at the NHC smokin somthing ? Whats with the loop dee loops?

Not sure why you would say that. Most of the models and the overall pattern suggest such a track over the next five days. So, I don't think they're doing it just for fun.

johngaltfla · #69 Postby **johngaltfla** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:24 pm

jdray wrote:And Florida is officially in the Circle of Uncertainty!!

Uh, that's "Cone of Death" and I've copyrighted it.

jkt21787 · #70 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:25 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
jdray wrote:And Florida is officially in the Circle of Uncertainty!!

Uh, that's "Cone of Death" and I've copyrighted it.

This is a circle though, so I highly suggest you get the copyright for "Circle of Death" as well, so it appropriately applies to this system! :lol:

Eyes2theSkies · #71 Postby **Eyes2theSkies** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:27 pm

I like to call it the circle of love

curtinnc · #72 Postby **curtinnc** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:32 pm

Can't wait to see this one track out... They might pin this one, but laying the groundwork for lots of speculation already... As well they should, if the models are doing this to 'em, what else could they do...

"Discussion Blog: The models all disagree, and so do we. This thing may or may not strengthen, and may or may not do a full loop in the next five days. The blob of uncertainty currently predicted has just about eaten our brains, so we would like to all go home over the weekend and have a stiff drink before we release this on the masses. We'll clean all the viruses out of the FSU computers, and get back to you on this TD 6..." Forecaster Stewart/and the brain eating puter gremlins that seeded the clouds to form this mess...

Heheeeee :lol:

#73 Postby **joseph01** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:34 pm

gkrangers wrote:
joseph01 wrote:Wouldn't it be nice to be a fly on the wall at NHC and know exactly what that loopy forcast track is based on?
The NHC issues a discussion at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM to explain the forecast track and stuff.

Here is their reasoning...

"THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.
THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB CIRCULATION NORTHWARD
AND THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL/500
MB CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND STALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND
ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST."

Thank you for that, gkrangers. They have indeed explained the circumstances. I was just wondering about when they throw in with the models, and when they depart, based on experience, personal assessment, and gut feeling. My understanding is that they do not just regurgitate model data. Am I wrong in this thinking?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #74 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:37 pm

The ciruation is becoming better defined by the minute. In there is some pop corn convection starting to form over the center. So that is a sign that the system is starting to form its own convection. A line of clouds pushing eastward to the west or west-southwest, has me wondering if that is shear?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

gkrangers · #75 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:44 pm

joseph01 wrote:
gkrangers wrote:
joseph01 wrote:Wouldn't it be nice to be a fly on the wall at NHC and know exactly what that loopy forcast track is based on?
The NHC issues a discussion at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM to explain the forecast track and stuff.

Here is their reasoning...

"THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.
THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB CIRCULATION NORTHWARD
AND THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL/500
MB CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND STALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND
ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST."

Thank you for that, gkrangers. They have indeed explained the circumstances. I was just wondering about when they throw in with the models, and when they depart, based on experience, personal assessment, and gut feeling. My understanding is that they do not just regurgitate model data. Am I wrong in this thinking?

They use model data, climatology, recon data, surface observations, upper air obs, and their own experience. It all goes into it.

Rainband · #76 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:54 pm

Looks to be dying at this point. Maybe temporary but looks pretty sad. We had gustnadoes in Pinellas county that looked better last night.

#77 Postby **sweetpea** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:56 pm

Rainband wrote:Looks to be dying at this point. Maybe temporary but looks pretty sad. We had gustnadoes in Pinellas county that looked better last night.

I was just noticing that too. Doesn't look too impressive right now.

Rainband · #78 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:57 pm

hasn't for two hours.

gkrangers · #79 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:58 pm

748
WTNT61 KNHC 212256
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005
AT ABOUT 630 PM EDT... 2230Z... DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO 40 MPH. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 8 PM EDT... 0000Z.

FORECASTER KNABB

#80 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:58 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The ciruation is becoming better defined by the minute. In there is some pop corn convection starting to form over the center. So that is a sign that the system is starting to form its own convection. A line of clouds pushing eastward to the west or west-southwest, has me wondering if that is shear?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Look at those T-Storms blowing right near the center in that visible.

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