Tropical Storm Nate Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Nate Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:40 pm

First Advisorie at 5 PM.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:48 am, edited 12 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:27 pm

For some of the members who are confused about which is which this depression is NOT 94L that is off Floridas east coast.This is for system SW of Bermuda that was 93L.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

nequad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:36 pm

#3 Postby nequad » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:28 pm

220
WTNT35 KNHC 052027
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

...FIFTEENTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350
MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH
0 likes   

nequad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:36 pm

#4 Postby nequad » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:29 pm

WTNT45 KNHC 052027
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

SATELLITE DATA DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOW ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO
BE STARTED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH HAS MEANDERED IN
A CYCLONIC LOOP FOR MOST OF THE DAY. BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO
BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE
BAHAMAS...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THIS
TIME...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PUT AN END TO THE
INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND...PEAKING
THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO SHIPS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN CONSERVATIVELY PEAKING AT 50
KT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS UNDER THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DEPRESSION HAS MEANDERED IN A CYCLONIC LOOP
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION LAST NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THIS CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOVERS NEAR THE
SYSTEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND START TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
QUITE SCATTERED AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM UNDER WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS...WITH THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS MOVING
THE CYCLONE VERY LITTLE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
SIMILAR...BUT SLOWER...TO THE NOGAPS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
TO THAT OF THE GFDL...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT SLOWER DUE TO THE INITIAL
STATIONARY MOTION.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 27.8N 67.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 27.8N 67.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 69.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 28.3N 70.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 29.5N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 31.0N 72.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 32.0N 70.5W 50 KT
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:43 pm

Image

Interesting track for future "Nate"!
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#6 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:47 pm

A circle. :lol:
0 likes   
#neversummer

krysof

#7 Postby krysof » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:50 pm

Could this possibly pull a Jean?
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#8 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:51 pm

krysof wrote:Could this possibly pull a Jean?


No. Totally different scenario.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1937
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

#9 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:57 pm

Brent wrote:A circle. :lol:


Uh, let's not. That would give it 3 full days to intensify before hitting Florida.

We'd like to get off this E-ticket ride now, thank you. :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:53 pm

060253
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
0300Z TUE SEP 06 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.1N 67.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 68.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 69.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 31.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 32.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB


Wow what a surprise to see Nate tonight as models didn't have it as a storm.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:00 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

...14TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...
...LOCATED SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES... 515 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A CONTINUED
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.0 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#12 Postby senorpepr » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:03 pm

...this, of course, breaks yet another record. The record for earliest 14th tropical storm, set on 10 September 1936 and 1933, is now reset for 6 September 2005. (Zulu times are used for these records)
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:04 pm

exactly, this is a surprise!
0 likes   

NateFLA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 314
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa, FL
Contact:

#14 Postby NateFLA » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:09 pm

Helllloooooo me :lol: :P
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#15 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:10 pm

NateFLA wrote:Helllloooooo me :lol: :P


Do us all a favor, will you? Swim with the fishies and harm no one.

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:17 pm

TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
ROBUST AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -80C. THE 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORT 30-35 KT... AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
IMPRESSIVE SINCE THEN... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
35 KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A VERY RECENT BUOY REPORT OF 30
KT TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. WHILE
THE GFDL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EVER REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS... WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY UNDERDONE... THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE... BUT GIVEN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND... IT IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS SHOWS NATE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

NATE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE SMALL LOW LEVEL
CENTER SEEN EARLIER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED
EASTWARD INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WHICH IS CENTERED
FARTHER EAST. AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 23Z ALSO SUGGESTED THIS LARGER
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FARTHER EAST... AND RECENT SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY HINTS AT A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS ALL OVER THE PLACE... WITH NOGAPS SHOWING CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION... AS DOES GFDL BUT NOT UNTIL SOME MEANDERING IS COMPLETED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALL WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
LEFT BEHIND BY THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING MARIA FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO THEN BREAK
DOWN AND FORCE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AND IS AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 28.0N 66.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 28.1N 67.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 28.3N 67.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 28.6N 68.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 69.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.5N 70.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 31.5N 70.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 32.5N 67.5W 60 KT
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#17 Postby Swimdude » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:21 pm

NateFLA wrote:Helllloooooo me :lol: :P


Hahaha awesome. Wow... What an unexpected 10p.m.!

Maria a M.H... and Nate!
0 likes   

nequad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:36 pm

#18 Postby nequad » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:22 pm

IT IS SAFE TO SAY THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.



:eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#19 Postby Windy » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:31 pm

Holy K-moly. Nate already?
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#20 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:35 pm

Windy wrote:Holy K-moly. Nate already?


...and it looks like Ophelia will be here soon.
0 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests