Tropical Storm Ophelia

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Brent
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#1741 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 15, 2005 6:50 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING ERRATICALLY
EASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW
POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING
MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...AND
AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SOME
ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE AND WSR-88D DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...34.6 N... 75.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#1742 Postby krysof » Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:22 pm

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#1743 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 15, 2005 8:15 pm

Now let's keep the weakening trend for Ophelia for the rest of her life, never to be a hurricane again. Let's hope she's had too much booze and that she's finally passing out now.

-Andrew92
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#1744 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:30 pm

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z FRI SEP 16 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED WEST OF
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND
EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 55.0W...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 51.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 54.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 74.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH
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#1745 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

...WEAKENED OPHELIA MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED WEST OF
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND
EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD NEAR 5 MPH. AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK HOWEVER...AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR
THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS...REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING SHOULD SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY.

OPHELIA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.5 N... 74.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#1746 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:53 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 160251
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

THE RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS OF OPHELIA CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE...WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 74 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE MOVING
OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 36 HOURS...ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER OPHELIA
PASSES 40N LATITUDE...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
RAPIDLY...AND OPHELIA SHOULD START ITS TRANSITION INTO A VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS MORE OR LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE
DIAGNOSIS OF THE GFS OUTPUT ON THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS WEB
PAGE...WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.
IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO BE VERY PRECISE AS TO HOW TROPICAL THE CYCLONE
WILL BE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSEST TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...BUT MOSTLY
EASTWARD...OR EVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS
AN UNCERTAIN 100/4. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND CAUSE
OPHELIA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE OPHELIA
WILL COME TO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE NOGAPS TAKES THE
CENTER NEAR CAPE COD...THE GFDL JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST...AND THE
GFS CONTROL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE. OUT OF
RESPECT FOR THE GFDL...THE NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER
WESTWARD IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 34.5N 74.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 37.2N 73.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.4W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/0000Z 43.0N 67.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/0000Z 48.0N 55.0W 50 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/0000Z 51.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/0000Z 54.0N 24.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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#1747 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:09 pm

Andrew92 wrote:Now let's keep the weakening trend for Ophelia for the rest of her life, never to be a hurricane again. Let's hope she's had too much booze and that she's finally passing out now.

-Andrew92


Ophelia will probably look better organized as time goes on. Just let the solar wind speed diminsh. It's been down to as low as 640-650 km/sec range the past hour or so after being as high as 900 km/sec during the previous 12 hours.

One other note. We saw a peak of 50-60,000 strike count totals yesterday. Today's weather was forecasted to be somewhat similar. Peak today around 10,000.

What happened ?......electrical feedback cut off over CONUS also.


Jim
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#1748 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:27 pm

:band: singing bye bye to ophelia...see ya later
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#1749 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:53 pm

Jim Hughes wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:Now let's keep the weakening trend for Ophelia for the rest of her life, never to be a hurricane again. Let's hope she's had too much booze and that she's finally passing out now.

-Andrew92


Ophelia will probably look better organized as time goes on. Just let the solar wind speed diminsh. It's been down to as low as 640-650 km/sec range the past hour or so after being as high as 900 km/sec during the previous 12 hours.

One other note. We saw a peak of 50-60,000 strike count totals yesterday. Today's weather was forecasted to be somewhat similar. Peak today around 10,000.

What happened ?......electrical feedback cut off over CONUS also.


Jim


Geeze, I hope your prediction is wrong....let's get this stupid alcoholic storm out of here and be done with it! The storm even looks drunk on satellite right now.

(btw, I don't drink much at all.....just saying I'm sick of this storm finally)

-Andrew92
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#1750 Postby NCHurricane » Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:58 pm

O sure dumped a ton of rain of the coast and central and southern coastal plain. Radar estimates in places are over <edit>12</edit> inches. Water, water, water everywhere.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/images/D ... latest.gif

Edit: The 15+ (white) by Morehead City is probably an anomoly since that is right over the radar site. There may have been localized 12+ though.

Chuck
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Last edited by NCHurricane on Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1751 Postby Dick Pache » Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:58 pm

Buoy station 4125 classic hurricane pass from tonight 35.01N-75.4W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E




[/img]
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#1752 Postby Dick Pache » Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:14 pm

Station CLKN7 34.6N,76.5W shows eye null winds

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E
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#1753 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:57 am

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 40a

Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 16, 2005


...Ophelia weakening as it meanders off the Outer Banks...


a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Cape Lookout North
Carolina northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border...
including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.


A tropical storm watch remains in effect from Point Judith Rhode
Island eastward and northward to Cape Cod and Plymouth
Massachusetts...including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket islands.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 34.7 north... longitude 74.8 west or about 55
miles southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.


Ophelia has drifted to the north over the last few hours. A
general northeastward motion is expected later today. Steering
currents remain weak however...and a continued
erratic motion is possible over the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...with higher gusts. Slow
weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the
center...mainly to the east and southeast.


The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible in areas of onshore winds. A storm surge of 6 to 8
feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers. Storm surge
flooding should subside later today.


Ophelia will likely produce additional rainfall accumulations of
less than an inch across far eastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia over the next 24 hours.


Repeating the 2 am EDT position...34.7 N... 74.8 W. Movement
toward...northward drift. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 995 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.


Forecaster Franklin
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#1754 Postby arlwx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:01 am

WTUS81 KBOX 160937 CCA
HLSBOX
MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005-007-ANZ231>236-254-255-161600-

HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT .. COR DATE..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
533 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED SUCH THAT IT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND BRISTOL.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
AT 5 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND INCLUDES THE ENTIRE COASTAL REGION FROM POINT JUDITH
RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH
MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.

IF OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS AND PATH CONTINUE ON COURSE AS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED...A PORTION OF THIS WATCH...WOULD LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING DURING TODAYS MIDDAY ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS TO
WEAKEN NORTHWEST OF ITS PATH. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE LIKELY SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELDS ON THE NEW
ENGLAND SIDE OF THIS STORM...THE WATCH CONTINUES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS NOW MOVING NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. SHE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR
NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A
POWERFUL NOREASTER.

BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY
NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF
THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES.

COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT
LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING.

EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH
DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS
BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
BUZZARDS BAY AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND THERE IS SOMEWHAT
LESSER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM
SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE
STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE.

...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION
THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR
BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 AM EDT TODAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
/BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT.

$$
DRAG
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#1755 Postby Jim Hughes » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:11 am

Andrew92 wrote:
Jim Hughes wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:Now let's keep the weakening trend for Ophelia for the rest of her life, never to be a hurricane again. Let's hope she's had too much booze and that she's finally passing out now.

-Andrew92


Ophelia will probably look better organized as time goes on. Just let the solar wind speed diminsh. It's been down to as low as 640-650 km/sec range the past hour or so after being as high as 900 km/sec during the previous 12 hours.

One other note. We saw a peak of 50-60,000 strike count totals yesterday. Today's weather was forecasted to be somewhat similar. Peak today around 10,000.

What happened ?......electrical feedback cut off over CONUS also.


Jim


Geeze, I hope your prediction is wrong....let's get this stupid alcoholic storm out of here and be done with it! The storm even looks drunk on satellite right now.

(btw, I don't drink much at all.....just saying I'm sick of this storm finally)

-Andrew92


The solar winds are still hovering between 650-700 km/sec...She looks terrible but I believe her convection will return when it comes down closer to 500 km/sec....BTW I am not forecasting strengthening....just pointing things out....there has been lightening strikes around her this morning and this is showing up....I never saw any when I checked several times yesterday....not many times though.


Jim
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#1756 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:53 am

WTNT31 KNHC 161147
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THIS WARNING WILL BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE
ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. A STORM SURGE OF
3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. STORM
SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...35.4 N... 74.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#1757 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:35 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...35.7 N... 74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#1758 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:35 am

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z FRI SEP 16 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.8N 70.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.8N 66.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.0N 60.8W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.0N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 53.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 53.0N 19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 74.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#1759 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:45 am

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

OPHELIA IS PRESENTING A SHEARED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM COASTAL WSR-88DS ARE EAST OF
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE POSITIONS...SUGGESTING THE VORTEX IS
TILTED. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996
MB...ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7. OPHELIA IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES...AND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN
THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE. THIS SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED AFTER 72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK
IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...WHICH REQUIRES A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS
OPHELIA REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. AFTER 24 HR...COLDER
WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 36-48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 35.7N 74.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 39.8N 70.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 42.8N 66.7W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 60.8W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/1200Z 50.0N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1200Z 53.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/1200Z 53.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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#1760 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES... 170 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 415 MILES... 670 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...36.1 N... 74.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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