TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS IS UNDERWAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED VERY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH BANDING FEATURES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 12Z SUGGESTS WINDS ARE ALSO 40-45 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND I EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
WILMA DROVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT A WESTWARD COMPONENT SEEMS TO
HAVE RETURNED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 235/4.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AND THERE IS PRESENTLY A HUGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. WHAT IS
MOST PUZZLING IS THAT THE MODELS THAT BEST ANTICIPATED THE
SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...THE GFDL AND THE GFS...ARE WAY OUT
THERE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK
OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF TAKE WILMA INTO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THESE
MODELS THAT IS AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF WILMA TO CONNECT WITH THE
WESTERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT IS
TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF
BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY
ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CLEARLY...CONFIDENCE AT
THE LONGER RANGES IS UNUSUALLY LOW. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD MOTION
OVERNIGHT NOW REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
HONDURAS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AS WELL AS THE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...IT IS A LITTLE PREMATURE TO LOWER THE WATCH
AND WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 16.3N 80.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 95 KT
Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z MON OCT 17 2005
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.8W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z MON OCT 17 2005
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.8W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA STRENGTHENING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
HONDURAS...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
230 MILES... 370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA STRENGTHENING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
HONDURAS...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
230 MILES... 370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS IS UNDERWAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED VERY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH BANDING FEATURES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 12Z SUGGESTS WINDS ARE ALSO 40-45 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND I EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
WILMA DROVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT A WESTWARD COMPONENT SEEMS TO
HAVE RETURNED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 235/4.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AND THERE IS PRESENTLY A HUGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. WHAT IS
MOST PUZZLING IS THAT THE MODELS THAT BEST ANTICIPATED THE
SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...THE GFDL AND THE GFS...ARE WAY OUT
THERE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK
OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF TAKE WILMA INTO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THESE
MODELS THAT IS AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF WILMA TO CONNECT WITH THE
WESTERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT IS
TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF
BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY
ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CLEARLY...CONFIDENCE AT
THE LONGER RANGES IS UNUSUALLY LOW. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD MOTION
OVERNIGHT NOW REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
HONDURAS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AS WELL AS THE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...IT IS A LITTLE PREMATURE TO LOWER THE WATCH
AND WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 16.3N 80.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 95 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS IS UNDERWAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED VERY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH BANDING FEATURES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 12Z SUGGESTS WINDS ARE ALSO 40-45 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND I EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
WILMA DROVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT A WESTWARD COMPONENT SEEMS TO
HAVE RETURNED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 235/4.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AND THERE IS PRESENTLY A HUGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. WHAT IS
MOST PUZZLING IS THAT THE MODELS THAT BEST ANTICIPATED THE
SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...THE GFDL AND THE GFS...ARE WAY OUT
THERE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK
OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF TAKE WILMA INTO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THESE
MODELS THAT IS AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF WILMA TO CONNECT WITH THE
WESTERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT IS
TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF
BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY
ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CLEARLY...CONFIDENCE AT
THE LONGER RANGES IS UNUSUALLY LOW. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD MOTION
OVERNIGHT NOW REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
HONDURAS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AS WELL AS THE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...IT IS A LITTLE PREMATURE TO LOWER THE WATCH
AND WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 16.3N 80.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 95 KT
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JamesFromMaine2
- Category 4
- Posts: 989
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
- Location: Portland Maine USA
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 8a
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2005
...Wilma moving slowly as it gathers strength...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was
located near latitude 16.1 north... longitude 80.0 west or about
235 miles... 380 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about
225 miles... 365 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Wilma has drifted southward over the past few hours...but a
gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours.
Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during
the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 80 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
...110 km...mainly to the south of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to
3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible
over Honduras.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.1 N... 80.0 W. Movement
toward...drifting south. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
$$
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2005
...Wilma moving slowly as it gathers strength...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was
located near latitude 16.1 north... longitude 80.0 west or about
235 miles... 380 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about
225 miles... 365 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Wilma has drifted southward over the past few hours...but a
gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours.
Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during
the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 80 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
...110 km...mainly to the south of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to
3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible
over Honduras.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.1 N... 80.0 W. Movement
toward...drifting south. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
$$
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z MON OCT 17 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 79.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 79.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.9N 80.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.3N 81.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.9N 82.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 79.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z MON OCT 17 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 79.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 79.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.9N 80.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.3N 81.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.9N 82.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 79.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST ARRIVED IN THE CENTER OF
WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS
MINIMUM PRESSURE OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY LOW...FLATTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THOUGH THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...BANDING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND NEW CONVECTION IS GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. WILMA
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ONE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
MAKING WILMA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ONCE
WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
WILMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...OR 190/2. CERTAINLY
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH THIS
POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CORE
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC THIS AFTERNOON...AND I AM
EXPECTING WILMA TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN BETTER
ACCORD WITH THE GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LARGE LOW OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW WILMA TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FOR
REASONS UNKNOWN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 200 MILES AND NO LONGER
DRIVE WILMA INTO BELIZE. THE GFS AND GFDL...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE RATHER CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT BY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BE ENCOUNTERING WESTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT SHOULD FORCE A FAIRLY SHARP RIGHT TURN. HOW SHARP A TURN WILMA
TAKES IS OBVIOUSLY OF INTEREST TO ALL ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY SPECIFIC AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.8N 79.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 80.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.3N 81.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 82.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 84.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 23.5N 85.0W 90 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST ARRIVED IN THE CENTER OF
WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS
MINIMUM PRESSURE OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY LOW...FLATTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THOUGH THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...BANDING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND NEW CONVECTION IS GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. WILMA
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ONE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
MAKING WILMA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ONCE
WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
WILMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...OR 190/2. CERTAINLY
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH THIS
POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CORE
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC THIS AFTERNOON...AND I AM
EXPECTING WILMA TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN BETTER
ACCORD WITH THE GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LARGE LOW OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW WILMA TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FOR
REASONS UNKNOWN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 200 MILES AND NO LONGER
DRIVE WILMA INTO BELIZE. THE GFS AND GFDL...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE RATHER CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT BY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BE ENCOUNTERING WESTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT SHOULD FORCE A FAIRLY SHARP RIGHT TURN. HOW SHARP A TURN WILMA
TAKES IS OBVIOUSLY OF INTEREST TO ALL ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY SPECIFIC AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.8N 79.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 80.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.3N 81.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 82.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 84.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 23.5N 85.0W 90 KT
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA POISED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 225
MILES... 365 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA POISED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 225
MILES... 365 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 225
MILES... 360 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 79.9 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 225
MILES... 360 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 79.9 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA STEADILY STRENGTHENING AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT
250 MILES... 405 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
205 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
...WILMA STEADILY STRENGTHENING AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT
250 MILES... 405 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
205 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z TUE OCT 18 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 80.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z TUE OCT 18 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 80.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
FORECASTER KNABB
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#neversummer
-
Scorpion
-
Windtalker1
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 523
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:00 am
- Location: Mesa, Arizona
-
Scorpion
Windtalker1 wrote:Hay Scorpion...seems like my path I did yesterday might pan outScorpion wrote:Wow, takes it probably right over my house. But you know what they say, 5 days out the line is the best place to be in.
Yes Windtalker and yesterday it seemed so out of tune with everything else. At least we're still several days out so things will change again.
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