Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...LARGE EYE OF WILMA EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...WESTERN EYEWALL CONTINUING TO IMPACT EASTERN FLORIDA...

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF
LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY... ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS
AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE LARGE EYE WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
EYEWALL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PERSONS ARE URGED NOT TO
VENTURE OUTDOORS SINCE STRONG WINDS REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEST OF THE EYE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WIND SPEEDS ABOUT ONE CATEGORY STRONGER COULD BE
EXPERIENCED IN HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE DECREASING TODAY ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST...IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN FLORIDA BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS WILMA MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE PALM BEACH...MARTIN...AND ST.
LUCIE SHORELINES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK. STORM SURGE OF 5
TO 8 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. WESTERN CUBA MAY RECEIVE
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...27.3 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[mtm4319]

Hurricane Wilma Tropical Cyclone Update


Statement as of 1:50 PM EDT on October 24, 2005


...Wilma restrengthens to category 3 over the Gulf Stream...
At about 120 PM EDT...an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported
that maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Wilma were near 115
mph...in a small region south of the center over the Atlantic Ocean
and the extreme northwestern Bahamas.
A special advisory will be issued by approximately 230 PM EDT...
primarily to revise the initial and forecast intensity.

Forecaster Knabb

[JtSmarts]

Wilma back to Cat 3

...Wilma restrengthens to category 3 over the Gulf Stream...
At about 120 PM EDT...an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported
that maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Wilma were near 115
mph...in a small region south of the center over the Atlantic Ocean
and the extreme northwestern Bahamas.
A special advisory will be issued by approximately 230 PM EDT...
primarily to revise the initial and forecast intensity.

Forecaster Knabb

$$
Hurricane Wilma tropical cyclone update
150 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2005
...Wilma restrengthens to category 3 over the Gulf Stream...
At about 120 PM EDT...an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported
that maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Wilma were near 115
mph...in a small region south of the center over the Atlantic Ocean
and the extreme northwestern Bahamas.
A special advisory will be issued by approximately 230 PM EDT...
primarily to revise the initial and forecast intensity.

Forecaster Knabb

[WxGuy1]

If anyone cares, Wilma's back up to Cat 3 with 115mph winds, officially.

[KBBOCA]

Doesn't surprise me. She looked shockingly good on satellite when I just checked. It looked like she might be taking a dead aim at Bermuda next. If she does landfall in Bermuda, what is the record for most landfalls per storm?

[Hurricanehink]

Doesn't surprise me. She looked shockingly good on satellite when I just checked. It looked like she might be taking a dead aim at Bermuda next. If she does landfall in Bermuda, what is the record for most landfalls per storm?

Actually, Georges in 1998 had 7 landfalls. Wilma isn't there yet, and probably won't.

[6SpeedTA95]

Its nto really surprising to see her strengthen some coming off the peninsula.

[CronkPSU]

Its nto really surprising to see her strengthen some coming off the peninsula.

must be to an awful lot of posters who said it would be a cat 1 at best landfalling hurricane...remember all the shear and cold water comments???

[LAwxrgal]

Just getting back. So, Wilma plowed thru Florida, did what she had to do, and is still a major cane? Unreal.

[ronibaida]

Could Wilma create a snow storm in the NE??

[cycloneye]

258
WTNT24 KNHC 241850
TCMAT4
HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1830Z MON OCT 24 2005

AT 230 PM EDT...1830Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

AT 230 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS ALSO BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

AT 230 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

WHILE WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO REACH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
CUBA TO OFFICIALLY OBTAIN THE STATUS OF THEIR WARNINGS...THEIR
PUBLISHED ADVISORIES DO NOT INDICATE THAT ANY HURRICANE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 78.8W AT 24/1830Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW.
50 KT.......125NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 225SE 200SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 300SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 78.8W AT 24/1830Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.3N 75.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 200SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 85SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 225SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 42.1N 61.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 44.9N 55.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 46.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 47.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 49.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

Could Wilma create a snow storm in the NE??

It's going to produce snow in the higher elevations, even down into NC/VA.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...WILMA REGAINS CATEGORY THREE STATUS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING AS FAR WEST AS THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA...

AT 230 PM EDT...1830Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

AT 230 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS ALSO BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

AT 230 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

WHILE WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO REACH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
CUBA TO OFFICIALLY OBTAIN THE STATUS OF THEIR WARNINGS...THEIR
PUBLISHED ADVISORIES DO NOT INDICATE THAT ANY HURRICANE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 230 PM EDT...1830Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES... 200 KM... NORTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM. SETTLEMENT POINT ON THE WESTERN TIP OF GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 96 MPH...154
KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST OF 119 MPH...191 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE DECREASING TODAY ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST...IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
IN FLORIDA BAY LATER THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4
FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE PALM BEACH...MARTIN...AND ST.
LUCIE SHORELINES. STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE IN
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

REPEATING THE 230 PM EDT POSITION...28.1 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[WxGuy1]

must be to an awful lot of posters who said it would be a cat 1 at best landfalling hurricane...remember all the shear and cold water comments???

I don't remember anyone saying "cat 1 at best". Most were thinking Cat 2/3, which has verified so far.

[cjrciadt]

So much for a CAt1 leaving FL, she weakened all of 5mins crazy!!!!

[alicia-w]

There were several people who said it would be a cat 1 at best.

[krysof]

unbelievable storm, what a legacy, and its not done yet

I have a question though, Will my area be really effected?

[Brent]

unbelievable storm, what a legacy, and its not done yet

I have a question though, Will my area be really effected?

Looks that way. Lots of rain and wind tonight and tomorrow. Are you close to NYC or farther south?

[cjrciadt]

Dont want anyone to ignore this in New England.

[terstorm1012]

snow is supposed to mix in with the rain tomorrow night here as the front/nor'easter/Wilma/Alpha storm passes us. Not going to stick.

amazing