Tropical Depression 25,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- bvigal
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Yesterday reminded me of Dean in 2001, only Dean began to organize right over the BVI and reached TD status just offshore in the Atlantic. I can remember two big 20-foot limbs breaking off the trees in my yard, and about 5" of rain falling between sunup & sundown. I kept watching NWS products to see if there was any mention of our "rain blob". If someone had asked me to bet half a year's income on whether it was organizing, I wouldn't even have hesitated!
It's rather interesting to be in a tropical system while it is forming, and we kind of knew that yesterday. This year we've had a sampling of the energy which would later become Katrina and Rita. I've really gained a whole new respect for that (unproven?) element which confounds the models and forecasters, and seems to determine what will and what won't develop and persist into something strong. Perhaps it is a small but powerful clear air vortex at mid level, too small to show in any type of satellite view. Only coincidentally and rarely captured by a weather balloon, and then judged to be a malfunction. But I've every confidence there is some great seed of energy exisiting long before the standard criteria for a tropical low appears.
This no doubt makes me sound like some kind of nut I've grown up with tornados, and got quite good at knowing which of identical conditions would produce tornados, and which would not. Today I can walk by a window, glance outside, see a cloud about to produce a funnel, calmly walk to get my camera, and be outside right on time for it to form and take it's picture.
Maybe I can just feel it naturally, as some people experience aches and pains which can't be correlated simply to barometeric pressure. Or, as was being discussed in another thread, the way animals seem to know in advance, there must be something which can be sensed. To me, the weather is living, breathing, with an ethereal element similar to a human personality - probably because, despite all our advances in technology, we can never fully predict it nor understand all the intricacies of its behavior.
It's rather interesting to be in a tropical system while it is forming, and we kind of knew that yesterday. This year we've had a sampling of the energy which would later become Katrina and Rita. I've really gained a whole new respect for that (unproven?) element which confounds the models and forecasters, and seems to determine what will and what won't develop and persist into something strong. Perhaps it is a small but powerful clear air vortex at mid level, too small to show in any type of satellite view. Only coincidentally and rarely captured by a weather balloon, and then judged to be a malfunction. But I've every confidence there is some great seed of energy exisiting long before the standard criteria for a tropical low appears.
This no doubt makes me sound like some kind of nut I've grown up with tornados, and got quite good at knowing which of identical conditions would produce tornados, and which would not. Today I can walk by a window, glance outside, see a cloud about to produce a funnel, calmly walk to get my camera, and be outside right on time for it to form and take it's picture.
Maybe I can just feel it naturally, as some people experience aches and pains which can't be correlated simply to barometeric pressure. Or, as was being discussed in another thread, the way animals seem to know in advance, there must be something which can be sensed. To me, the weather is living, breathing, with an ethereal element similar to a human personality - probably because, despite all our advances in technology, we can never fully predict it nor understand all the intricacies of its behavior.
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- Weatherfreak14
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- Weatherfreak14
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- Weatherfreak14
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- cycloneye
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25 ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 68.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.10.2005 16.2N 68.8W
00UTC 23.10.2005 17.5N 74.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2005 16.2N 74.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2005 16.9N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2005 16.5N 73.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2005 16.7N 71.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2005 17.4N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2005 13.9N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2005 12.2N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.10.2005 12.6N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.10.2005 12.3N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2005 13.3N 78.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2005 13.8N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12z UKMET.
Jan you said at the main Wilma thread that UKMET didn't showed TD25 but here is the text.
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- cycloneye
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Yes at 5 PM.
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- WindRunner
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- cycloneye
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CapeVerdeWave wrote:Are there any plans yet for sending RECON out to TD 25?
When it's close to Bermuda.
A POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
AT 24/1800Z NEAR 26N 73W.
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