#602 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:34 pm
I'm seeing pretty good signs of an LLC on the coast of Honduras near 16.1N/86.1W. That's where the recon plane is finding calm winds and a 1007 mb pressure. There are southwesterly winds to the south in Honduras on the hourly obs, but the center is too close to the coast, I think, for recon to fly into on the south side.
I think that there is enough evidence to call this "Gamma" shortly, unfortunately. Note that even the dymanic models (GFS, GFDL) are now indicating that eventually it may clip the southern Florida Peninsula. I think it's a good bet that the NHC track will move it across the southern tip fo Florida on Monday afternoon.
But as Airforce Met has been saying, the shear at will be tremendous by Sunday/Monday, not to mention all the lower-level dry air entrainment. So while Gamma could reach a peak intensity of 50 kts in the NW Caribbean in 24-48 hours, once it begins to accelerate NE toward western Cuba on Sunday it should be steadily weakening. By the time the "center" reaches south Florida, it may not be more than an elongated area of squalls displaced east of a low-level swirl.
Here's a current McIdas image with the location of the center plotted.
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma2.gif">
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