TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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MWatkins
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#521 Postby MWatkins » Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:03 am

Overall the guidance seems to be coming in on a solution of some slow development…the GFDL wants to bring this on a Wilma path as a Cat 1 hurricane…this seems a bit overdone as most of the strengthening happens in the Gulf between 72 and 84 hours in the model.

However…the idea of the system getting yanked up and through Florida as a weaker tropical storm seems more plausible…but the big story may be the resulting system coming into the east coast by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

I’m not going to even speculate on the impact down the road yet…we’ve seen model agreement on a phasing system already this season…but the prospects of this crossing Florida as a named system…most likely a weak to moderate tropical storm…seems to be the most likely option early on.

MW
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#522 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:05 am

I think that's why some of us down here are a little worried. Even a strong tropical storm could cause problems to us here in south florida. Most people don't even have everything cleaned up from Wilma yet. 60-70mph winds could play havoc with that. :x
Last edited by Damar91 on Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#523 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:06 am

Yeah a weak TS passing over south or central fl. seems most plasable Thanks MW.
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#524 Postby tracyswfla » Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:10 am

If this happens... luckily my storm debris from Wilma was picked up this week!
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CHRISTY

#525 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:13 am

Image
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#526 Postby SWFLMom » Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:17 am

tracyswfla wrote:If this happens... luckily my storm debris from Wilma was picked up this week!


Mine too! Boy was I glad to see those trucks. The ironic thing is that the crew was from "Bedrock" Recycling.
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#527 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:36 am

MWatkins wrote:Overall the guidance seems to be coming in on a solution of some slow development…the GFDL wants to bring this on a Wilma path as a Cat 1 hurricane…this seems a bit overdone as most of the strengthening happens in the Gulf between 72 and 84 hours in the model.

However…the idea of the system getting yanked up and through Florida as a weaker tropical storm seems more plausible…but the big story may be the resulting system coming into the east coast by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

I’m not going to even speculate on the impact down the road yet…we’ve seen model agreement on a phasing system already this season…but the prospects of this crossing Florida as a named system…most likely a weak to moderate tropical storm…seems to be the most likely option early on.

MW


Are you kidding me MW? Even still with this Shortwave coming?
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#528 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:16 am

TWO 11:30 AM:

satellite imagery this morning shows that the remnants of Tropical
Depression Twenty-Seven are becoming better organized near the
northern coast of Honduras just east of roatan island. If current
trends continue...a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
later today. If advisories are re-initiated...watches and warnings
may be required for portions of the northwestern Caribbean coast
and the adjacent islands...and interests in this area should
monitor the progress of this system. Strong winds are already
occurring over the northwestern Caribbean Sea to the north of the
system...and additional information on this can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by the TPC/Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch under AWIPS header miahsfat2 and under WMO header fznt02
knhc.

Even if no additional development occurs...heavy rains will be
possible across portions of Honduras...Belize...the Cayman
Islands...western Cuba...and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently enroute
to investigate the system.
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#529 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:18 am

This may actually become Gamma today. The crazy season of 2005 continues.
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#530 Postby artist » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:25 am

Current Weather at Roatan, Honduras

Temperature
74.4°F

Humidity
95%

Dewpoint
72.9°F

Wind
NE at 43.0 mph

Barometer
29.686 in & Steady

Today's Rain
0.34 in

Rain Rate
0.23 in/hr

Storm Total
3.81 in

Monthly Rain
9.20 in

Yearly Rain
51.36 in

Wind Chill
67.3°F

THW Index
70.6°F

Heat Index
77.7°F

Today's Highs/Lows
High Temperature

Low Temperature
79.6°F at 12:50a

73.2°F at 9:46a

High Humidity

Low Humidity
95% at 10:02a

77% at 12:51a

High Dewpoint

Low Dewpoint
75.0°F at 3:34a

71.0°F at 9:41a

High Wind Speed
54.0 mph at 9:40a

High Barometer

Low Barometer
29.712 in at 8:29a

29.634 in at 3:44a

High Rain Rate
1.06 in/hr at 10:02a

Low Wind Chill
72.0°F at 9:46a

High Heat Index
84.0°F at 12:08


http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm
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#531 Postby x-y-no » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:29 am

12Z GFS run continues the trend of forecasting very hostile shear conditions over this thing in the 2 to 3 day timeframe - tearing it apart completely.

This scenario seems fairly likely to me, although it may be a bit overdriven. I do think this has a good chance to become Gamma today, and while I don't think it gets all the way to SFL as a tropical system, it may well persist somewhat better than the GFS says.
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#532 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:38 am

Image
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#533 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:02 pm

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#534 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:29 pm

i don't see too much Dry air in front of this system...


Image
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#535 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:33 pm

Image
heat potential is dead in the GOM.
Image
SST'S are also pretty low too.
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#536 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:47 pm

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 85.5 290./ 6.0
6 16.5 85.7 256./ 2.0
12 16.4 86.1 262./ 4.0
18 16.3 86.2 254./ 1.8
24 16.5 86.8 286./ 5.0
30 16.8 87.2 307./ 5.0
36 17.2 87.6 314./ 5.6
42 17.9 87.7 352./ 7.2
48 18.9 87.8 352./10.2
54 19.8 87.9 354./ 9.1
60 20.6 87.6 20./ 8.1
66 21.4 86.9 43./11.0
72 22.6 85.6 46./16.2
78 24.1 83.6 55./24.3
84 26.0 81.0 54./29.9
90 28.6 78.3 46./35.4
96 32.4 75.1 40./47.1


12z GFDL dissipates it at 96 hours.
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#537 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 85.5 290./ 6.0
6 16.5 85.7 256./ 2.0
12 16.4 86.1 262./ 4.0
18 16.3 86.2 254./ 1.8
24 16.5 86.8 286./ 5.0
30 16.8 87.2 307./ 5.0
36 17.2 87.6 314./ 5.6
42 17.9 87.7 352./ 7.2
48 18.9 87.8 352./10.2
54 19.8 87.9 354./ 9.1
60 20.6 87.6 20./ 8.1
66 21.4 86.9 43./11.0
72 22.6 85.6 46./16.2
78 24.1 83.6 55./24.3
84 26.0 81.0 54./29.9
90 28.6 78.3 46./35.4
96 32.4 75.1 40./47.1


12z GFDL dissipates it at 96 hours.


Called a Depression too..
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#538 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:56 pm

GFDL ---
Looks similar to Wilma's track, in near SW florida and exit near WPB. Obviously nowhere near the intensity.
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#539 Postby Zadok » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:59 pm

No problem for me except for the power grid....
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#540 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:05 pm

Blown_away wrote:GFDL ---
Looks similar to Wilma's track, in near SW florida and exit near WPB. Obviously nowhere near the intensity.


put 50 mph winds on tarps and stoplights and limbs here and it will not be a great situation
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