TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

mike815 · #241 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:53 pm

exactly got another name out of it.

#242 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:55 pm

stupid shear :grrr:

jkt21787 · #243 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:00 pm

boca_chris wrote:stupid shear

I'm sure most here are grateful for the shear.

Its still unbelieveable how you hyped and try to scare people with this storm, all because you wanted it...

f5 · #244 Postby f5 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:01 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:stupid shear

I'm sure most here are grateful for the shear.

Its still unbelieveable how you hyped and try to scare people with this storm, all because you wanted it...

boca_bastardi is all i can say

#245 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:01 pm

boca_chris wrote:stupid shear

I thought you were fearful about it coming to Florida? Sounds like you were wanting it to hit you.

#246 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:01 pm

I don't mind a T.S but not a major....at one point it looked like it was going to really impact S. Florida.

jkt21787 · #247 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:stupid shear

I thought you were fearful about it coming to Florida? Sounds like you were wanting it to hit you.

exactly.

#248 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:02 pm

Here's a new McIdas image before I head home. LLC moving ENE-E and conection is weakening and moving farther away:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma15.gif">

mike815 · #249 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:05 pm

hey stop being so negative and nasty to one another its hard to forecast storms in Nov. Give the guy a break.

#250 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:07 pm

boca_chris wrote:stupid shear

Let's see...you start a thread that reads: "Growing Concern For S. Florida and Possible Gamma" and then you make a post that reads "stupid shear :grrr:

"

You know...you really wanted a hit it seems. Next time...don't hide behind fake "concern." Just come on out and beg the storm to take aim towards you...it will save us all a lot of time and effort trying to comfort you that everything will be OK...I know I won't spend the time and effort trying to calm your fears anymore. Not sure what your age is...but when you start paying your own insurance and mortgage...your opinions might change a bit.

f5 · #251 Postby f5 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:08 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
boca_chris wrote:stupid shear

Let's see...you start a thread that reads: "Growing Concern For S. Florida and Possible Gamma" and then you make a post that reads "stupid shear "

You know...you really wanted a hit it seems. Next time...don't hide behind fake "concern." Just come on out and beg the storm to take aim towards you...it will save us all a lot of time and effort trying to comfort you that everything will be OK...I know I won't spend the time and effort trying to calm your fears anymore. Not sure what your age is...but when you start paying your own insurance and mortgage...your opinions might change a bit.

he will be sorry once he gets the NE eyewall of a CAT 5

jkt21787 · #252 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:09 pm

mike815 wrote:hey stop being so negative and nasty to one another its hard to forecast storms in Nov. Give the guy a break.

I'm sorry, but his last post says it all. Read AFM's new post as well to clarify the situation. You can't give a guy like that a break honestly...

mike815 · #253 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:14 pm

ok i understand what u guys are saying but i beileve if u dont have anything nice to say about some one dont say anything at all.

#254 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:17 pm

mike815 wrote:ok i understand what u guys are saying but i beileve if u dont have anything nice to say about some one dont say anything at all.

What color is the sky in your world?

Just joking. :wink:

Remember...it is sometimes better to slap a hand than hold it. If you always "don't say anything at all"...then some people never learn from their mistakes.

mike815 · #255 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:22 pm

Ok thats tru to it just depends on how u say it lol

#256 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:45 pm

P.K. wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Actually, the conversion from 1500 feet is 70%. 70% of 49 kts is 34 kts. And that wind was in a squall quite a long distance removed from the center. Since that recon report, squalls have diminished, so calling Gamma a TS is a real stretch.

They weren't high though, only at 200m.

Yesterday senorpepr quoted Stacy Stewart as saying
Stacy Stewart wrote:
we use the same recon-to-surface wind conversion
values of 90% at 9,000-10,000 ft, 80% at 1500 ft and 5,000 ft, and 75%
at 2500 ft"

I'm getting confused at the moment as to which conversion rates are correct.

Here's a conversion graphic. Note the 70% conversion from 1500ft. Hoever, each storm is different. Some have the stronger winds lower, some higher. So the graphic is just a general guideline.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/structure.gif">

#257 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 5:02 pm

Thanks, that is how I was thinking it looked like based on what I've studied. Looks just like the normal wind profile you would expect for a convective boundary layer but without the mixed layer within the boundary layer, then again the surface layer is rather greater than he usual 10% of the boundary layer on there.

(Obviously a TC is a special case though so what i have looked at over here doesn't hold true in this case)

#258 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 5:48 pm

Gamma's starting to drift N now on track with NHC guidance.

#259 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 5:57 pm

to set the record straight:

- I don't want a major hurricane
- I don't mind a Tropical storm
- I should be concerned considering what Wilma did and how fragile S. Florida is right now
- I may hype up blobs a bit, I agree but I was dead on with Katrina and Wilma days before landfall (although I predicted a CAT3 Wilma in S. Florida but it was barely even a CAT 2).

mike815 · #260 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 6:01 pm

looks like its on track again yup

TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online