Newest advisory from the NHC now in...
000
WTNT32 KNHC 190001
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005
...GAMMA STILL DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 6 PM CST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM... NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 180
MILES... 290 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.
GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...
6 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70
KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 6 PM CST POSITION...16.2 N... 85.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
9 PM CST.
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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wxman57
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Well, now that Gamma has formed, I've had to postpone my trip to Mississippi to rebuild my mother's home (flooded in Katrina) until Tuesday, it appears. She was very disappointed when I called her to say I wouldn't be there Monday. Oh well, on to Gamma...
As you can see, model consensus is quite high that Gamma will follow a path similar to Wilma. But the similarity ends right there. Extremely strong southwesterly wind shear will be hitting Gamma on Sunday as it gets up around 18N-20N. And once it crosses western Cuba, it'll begin ingesting dry air in the lower levels from behind that front just to its west. I agree with the NHC that their 72 hr forecast of 55 kts is quite generous.
By the time Gamma reaches south Florida, I expect Gamma to be a highly sheared and elongated tropical storm. It could have a low-level swirl of clouds that moves over Florida with squalls displaced 100 or more miles to the east. So it's possible that Florida would get very little wind as it zips by at 20-25 mph. Worst case, a few squalls may move across the southern tip of Florida and produce pockets of sustained 35-45 mph wind with some higher gusts. That would be enough to cause a few power interruptions, but not much more.
Also, by the time it reaches south Florida there should be a "Hatteras Low" developing off the Carolinas. Gamma will be ripped to shreads and sucked into that developing storm late Monday and Tuesday. This has the potential to become quite a nor'easter, with very heavy snow in the mountains of PN/NY and northward through New England. The air ahead of it is a bit too warm for heavy snow down to the coast and into the major cities, though.
So, there you have it. Oh, looks like I'll be flying to Palm Beach on December 8th to speak to about 120 Florida Power & Light managers at their annual meeting. Maybe I'll see one or two of you there?
As you can see, model consensus is quite high that Gamma will follow a path similar to Wilma. But the similarity ends right there. Extremely strong southwesterly wind shear will be hitting Gamma on Sunday as it gets up around 18N-20N. And once it crosses western Cuba, it'll begin ingesting dry air in the lower levels from behind that front just to its west. I agree with the NHC that their 72 hr forecast of 55 kts is quite generous.
By the time Gamma reaches south Florida, I expect Gamma to be a highly sheared and elongated tropical storm. It could have a low-level swirl of clouds that moves over Florida with squalls displaced 100 or more miles to the east. So it's possible that Florida would get very little wind as it zips by at 20-25 mph. Worst case, a few squalls may move across the southern tip of Florida and produce pockets of sustained 35-45 mph wind with some higher gusts. That would be enough to cause a few power interruptions, but not much more.
Also, by the time it reaches south Florida there should be a "Hatteras Low" developing off the Carolinas. Gamma will be ripped to shreads and sucked into that developing storm late Monday and Tuesday. This has the potential to become quite a nor'easter, with very heavy snow in the mountains of PN/NY and northward through New England. The air ahead of it is a bit too warm for heavy snow down to the coast and into the major cities, though.
So, there you have it. Oh, looks like I'll be flying to Palm Beach on December 8th to speak to about 120 Florida Power & Light managers at their annual meeting. Maybe I'll see one or two of you there?
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HURAKAN
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arlwx wrote:How often do we get to talk about the advisories coming out at 1/4/7/10 instead of 2/5/8/11? On occasion, but usually not.
Not much but last year Otto, the year before, Odette and Peter, in 2003; Michelle, Olga and Noel in 2001, and some before gave us the opportunity to have advisories earlier than normal.
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wxman57
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P.K. wrote:18:00GMT GFDL travels to the south of Florida and instead travels across Cuba. Maximum 950hPa winds are 68kts.
GFDL does NOT recognize wind shear very well, so it will likely be very much in error on intensity. And it is possible that Gamma may track right of the current forecast.
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JamesFromMaine2
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does anyone remember the "2" inside wilma's eye right before the florida landfall? maybe it was trying to tell us something..................like perhaps a second storm was coming in nearly the same location.........
just speculation..
"GAMMIT!! TIME TO MOVE OUT OF FLORIDA!"
just speculation..
"GAMMIT!! TIME TO MOVE OUT OF FLORIDA!"
Last edited by tampaflwx on Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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senorpepr wrote:It's called a very loose pressure gradient which allows the 40-45mph winds to extend to that distance.f5 wrote:how can TS force winds be 45 mph but extend out 85 miles?
Just like Katrina,Rita and Wilma had with Katrina and Rita what happen was that loose pressure gradients Katrina and Rita had created a Catastrophic CAT 5 surge in a surge prone area even though they both weaken before landfall
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