Epsilon Advisories

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Epsilon Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:51 am

Tropical storm epsilon...the 28th named storm of the 2005
Atlantic season...forms over the central Atlantic Ocean...

at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of tropical storm epsilon was
located near latitude 31.6 north... longitude 50.4 west or about
845 miles...1360 km...east of Bermuda and about 1395 miles...2245
km... west of the Azores Islands.

Epsilon is moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours

maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km
from the center... especially to the north and west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...31.6 N... 50.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 PM AST.

Forecaster Stewart

Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:31 am, edited 19 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:56 am

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 15:00Z on November 29, 2005



tropical storm center located near 31.6n 50.4w at 29/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 993 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt....... 90ne 0se 130sw 175nw.
12 ft seas..650ne 600se 650sw 650nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 31.6n 50.4w at 29/1500z
at 29/1200z center was located near 31.6n 50.0w

forecast valid 30/0000z 31.7n 51.7w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 20se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 50se 140sw 180nw.

Forecast valid 30/1200z 31.8n 53.4w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...120ne 60se 140sw 180nw.

Forecast valid 01/0000z 32.0n 54.3w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...140ne 80se 140sw 180nw.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 32.7n 53.7w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...160ne 100se 120sw 180nw.

Forecast valid 02/1200z 33.5n 51.0w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 40nw.
34 kt...180ne 150se 120sw 180nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 03/1200z 35.0n 45.5w...becoming extratropical
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.

Outlook valid 04/1200z 37.0n 41.0w...extratropical
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 31.6n 50.4w

next advisory at 29/2100z

forecaster Stewart

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#3 Postby dhweather » Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:59 am

Only one day left in the season and the hits just keep on' coming. :lol:
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 29, 2005 10:07 am

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 10:00 am EST on November 29, 2005



conventional satellite imagery...nearby ship and buoy observations
...And 29/0938z Quikscat satellite wind data indicate the large
non-tropical low pressure system located about 730 nmi east of
Bermuda has acquired enough convection near the center to be
classified as tropical storm epsilon...the 26th named storm of the
apparently never ending 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial
intensity of 45 kt is based on blend of 40-kt Quikscat winds in the
northwest quadrant and a 29/0800z 996.0 mb...equal to approximately
55 kt... pressure report from buoy 41543 that was located about 90
nmi south of the center.

The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. Epsilon is expected to
move generally westward for the next 24-36 hours around the
southern periphery of a high-latitude ridge. After that...the
cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn and northeastward as a
deep-layer trough and associated frontal system currently over the
eastern United States moves eastward and begins to turn epsilon
back toward the east. By 96 hours... epsilon is expected to
accelerate rapidly northeastward and become extratropical or
possibly even become absorbed by the much larger extratropical low
pressure system. The forecast track is similar to the NHC model
consensus.
Epsilon is located over 25c SSTs... which is sufficiently warm
enough to support at least minimal hurricane intensity.

Although a
banding eye-like feature during the past couple of hours... the
low-level pressure and wind fields appear to more representative of
slow developing subtropical cyclones. As such... intensification is
expected to be slower than usual. However... if the deep convection
continues to rapidly increase around the center... then more and
earlier strengthening could occur than what is forecast. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS model and is
higher than the GFDL model.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/1500z 31.6n 50.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 30/0000z 31.7n 51.7w 50 kt
24hr VT 30/1200z 31.8n 53.4w 55 kt
36hr VT 01/0000z 32.0n 54.3w 60 kt
48hr VT 01/1200z 32.7n 53.7w 60 kt
72hr VT 02/1200z 33.5n 51.0w 55 kt
96hr VT 03/1200z 35.0n 45.5w 50 kt...becoming extratropical
120hr VT 04/1200z 37.0n 41.0w 45 kt...extratropical


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#5 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Nov 29, 2005 3:49 pm

000
WTNT44 KNHC 292039
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER... OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
IMPROVED AND SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTER. A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT WAS NOTED BY THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.
HOWEVER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED A LITTLE
HIGHER AT 45 KT BASED ON A 29/1700Z PRESSURE OF 999.0 MB FROM BUOY
41543 LOCATED ABOUT 120 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... AND SEVERAL
SHIP REPORTS OF 30 KT AT 200-250 NMI FROM THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/07 KT... ALTHOUGH EPSILON
HAS MADE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWARD WOBBLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
WEAK LOW LOCATED ABOUT 180 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
SECONDARY LOW IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO
SHORTLY RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT EPSILON WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD FOR THE 24 HOURS...AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN 36-48
HOURS AS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND... THE DEEP-
LAYER FLOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BECOMES WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT OUT EPSILON TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE
INFLOW OF LOW-LEVEL WARM UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER... AS THE LOW SHEARS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... THE INFLOW INTO THE CENTER OF EPSILON
SHOULD RESUME AND CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE EPSILON IS
LOCATED OVER 24.5-25C SSTS... WHICH IS ABOUT 1C WARMER THAN
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER 24-25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING SEEMS REAOSNABLE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE THE SHIPS MODEL AND REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE GFDL
MODEL... WHICH ONLY FORECASTS EPSILON TO REACH 42 KT IN 12 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 31.4N 51.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 31.5N 52.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 31.7N 53.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 32.4N 53.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 32.8N 52.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 33.6N 49.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 35.5N 44.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/1800Z 40.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
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#6 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Nov 29, 2005 4:34 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 292052
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005

...EPSILON MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT
800 MILES...1290 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1445 MILES...2325
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES
...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE
OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.4 N... 51.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:37 pm

KNHC 300236
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0300Z WED NOV 30 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.9W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 130SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..650NE 600SE 650SW 650NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.9W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.4N 53.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.6N 53.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.0N 53.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.5N 48.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 40.5N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 51.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


WTNT44 KNHC 300236
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

WHILE ITS POSITION NEAR THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SUGGESTS THAT EPSILON HAS NOT FULLY SHED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED BENEATH THE
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRMM OVERPASS AT 2051Z AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
2155Z BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS FORMED AN INNER WIND CORE
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE QUIKSCAT DATA
SHOWING 40 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE SUBTROPICAL 45-50 KT FROM TAFB...AND TROPICAL 35 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...EPSILON REMAINS A 45 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS PACKAGE. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 02Z MAY PROVIDE
MORE INFORMATION ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/7. EPSILON...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IT IS EMBEDDED IN....ARE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS EVOLUTION
SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD FOR 12-24 HR...THEN ALLOW
RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES
WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS
AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST EPSILON TO MOVE MORE EASTWARD...WHILE
THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST EPSILON TO REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR 24-36 HR. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE BEST PLACE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM A THERMODYNAMIC STANDPOINT...THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE VERTICAL SHEAR AT LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR
THE STORM TO REACH 60 KT IN 36 HR...WHICH IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD...EXPOSING THE STORM TO SHEAR. ALSO...THE FORECAST
NORTHEASTWARD TURN SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE CURRENTLY MARGINAL-AT-BEST 23C. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THEN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
MERGE WITH EPSILON IN ABOUT 72 HR...EVENTUALLY CAUSING THE STORM TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

THE TRMM AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WIND FIELD OF EPSILON IS
ABOUT TO JOIN THE LARGE AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE STORM. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE WIND RADII IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT REVISION. IN THE LONGER
TERM...THE SIZE OF THE 34 KT WIND FIELD AT 72 HR WAS REDUCED BASED
ON THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING A VIGOROUS OUTER ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 31.4N 51.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 31.4N 53.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 31.6N 53.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 32.0N 53.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 32.8N 53.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 48.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0000Z 40.5N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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#8 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:50 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005

...EPSILON MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1480 MILES...
2385 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE
OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...31.4 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#9 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Nov 30, 2005 5:22 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 300833
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED NOV 30 2005

...EPSILON AWAY FROM LAND....

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST OR ABOUT
725 MILES...1170 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1520 MILES...2445
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE WEST THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE
OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.2 N... 52.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
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#10 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Nov 30, 2005 5:25 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 300834
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005

THE CENTER OF EPSILON IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE
AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM A FRONTAL
CLOUD BAND LOCATED TO THE EAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS AND BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE EPSILON IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LOW...SOME
STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NEARING
THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND MOST LIKELY EPSILON WILL THEN
BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS...
STEERED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. EPSILON SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHARPLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A ABOUT A DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 31.2N 52.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 31.5N 54.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 32.5N 53.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 33.0N 51.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 47.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0600Z 38.0N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 30, 2005 9:49 am

784
WTNT44 KNHC 301443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005

EPSILON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED MORE THAN 75 PERCENT
AROUND THE CENTER... WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AND
AND AFWA ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER... A 30/0913Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WHAT APPEARS TO BE VALID 55 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE MOTION IS 260/08. STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE IN A WOBBLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
AS EPSILON MOVES INTO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA
AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. BY 36 HOURS... EPSILON IS FORECAST TO
SLOW/STALL AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... WITH EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OCCURRING BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS DUE TO A NORTHWARD BIAS BY THE GFS MODEL AFTER 72 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER... DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER
MARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER
...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL STORM
SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM
THE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 30.7N 53.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.9N 54.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 31.6N 54.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 32.4N 52.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1200Z 40.0N 37.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



515
WTNT34 KNHC 301452
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED NOV 30 2005

...EPSILON STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST OR ABOUT
650 MILES...1050 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1610 MILES...2590
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR TODAY... WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF EPSILON IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES
...350 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA...
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...30.7 N... 53.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#12 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Nov 30, 2005 3:48 pm

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 6


Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on November 30, 2005



while the depth of the central convection has decreased and cloud
tops have warmed... the overall inner and outer convective patterns
have increased significantly...including the development of a
ragged 30 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are 45 kt... and 35 kt from AFWA... respectively. The lower
intensity estimates are mainly due to the warm cloud tops that are
not allowing for solid banding features according to the Dvorak
rules... which is typical for shallow tropical cyclones like
Epsilon. However... a 30/1008z UW-CIMSS AMSU estimate of 991 mb...
the improved convective structure... and the eye feature are the
basis for increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt.

The motion estimate is 180/06. The models have all indicated that
Epsilon would move west and then north before turning northeastward
...But the cyclone has instead moved southwest and now southward.
It appears that the strong wraparound surface to mid-level ridge to
the north and west of Epsilon should force the cyclone to make a
small clockwise loop before eventually turning northeastward by 36
hours. The models are still in good agreement on the steering flow
becoming westerly ahead of a deep layer trough that is forecast to
move off the U.S. East Coast by 48 hours. The official track has
been shifted southward or to the right of the previous track to
account for the more southerly initial position... and is a little
north of the NHC model consensus. However... if Epsilon keeps
moving southward... subsequent forecast tracks may have to be
shifted more to the south... which could result in Epsilon passing
much closer to the Azores Islands in 120 hours and beyond.

The southward motion has resulted in Epsilon moving over warmer
water... as indicated by nearby buoy reports of 76-77f SSTs. Cirrus
cloud motions also indicate a well-defined upper-level anticyclone
has developed over the center. Just a modest increase in convection
is needed to make Epsilon a hurricane. The cyclone is expected to
be over the warmest water and in the lowest shear conditions for
the next 6 to 12 hours... after which increasing westerly vertical
shear and decreasing SSTs should induce slow but steady weakening.
However... Epsilon is forecast remain a significant extratropical
low pressure system due to increasing baroclinic effects.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/2100z 29.8n 54.2w 60 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 30.5n 54.1w 60 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 31.1n 53.5w 55 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 32.1n 51.8w 55 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 33.2n 50.0w 50 kt...becoming extratropical
72hr VT 03/1800z 35.0n 46.0w 50 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 04/1800z 37.0n 41.0w 45 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 05/1800z 39.0n 36.0w 40 kt...extratropical

1st time all year i got one in!
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#13 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 30, 2005 4:14 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 30 2005

...EPSILON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST OR ABOUT
650 MILES...1045 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1650
MILES...2660 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MAKING A SMALL LOOP TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT... BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK... EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
EAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY... AND EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY LATE THURSDAY OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES
...350 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA...
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...29.8 N... 54.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 30, 2005 9:39 pm

539
WTNT34 KNHC 010232
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 30 2005

...EPSILON TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT
700 MILES...1125 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1615
MILES...2600 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THIS IS A CHANCE EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA...
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...29.6 N... 53.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$




171
WTNT24 KNHC 010232
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0300Z THU DEC 01 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 53.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 550SE 550SW 650NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 53.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 30.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.9N 51.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.0N 49.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.0N 48.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 34.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 36.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT44 KNHC 010231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005

EPSILON SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN THIS
EVENING AROUND A RATHER RAGGED EYE. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE
COOLED THE PAST FEW HOURS...THEY ARE NOT YET COLD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN UPGRADE TO A HURRICANE...AS THE MAXIMUM SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWS WINDS OF
NO MORE THAN 50 KT...WHICH IS A BIT LESS THAN SEEN ON THE PREVIOUS
PASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2122Z AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED A WARM CORE
AND AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 66 KT. GIVEN THE COOLING
CONVECTIVE TOPS AND THE UNCHANGED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...IF THE QUIKSCAT
DATA IS RIGHT...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.

EPSILON HAS TURNED SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 135/5...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN
MORE EASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EPSILON REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE...WHICH IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
42N40W. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND
WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE TROUGH HAS SPREAD EASTWARD TO
NEAR 31N60W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN...WITH THE TROUGH PICKING UP EPSILON/DEEP-LAYER LOW AND
MOVING IT GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE STORM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE
TOO QUICKLY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. IT CALLS
FOR A GENERALLY NORTHEATWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...BUT NEVER
FASTER THAN ABOUT 10 KT. THE TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL.

EPSILON IS CURRENTLY OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ANY
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED AS WESTERLY SHEAR STARTS
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING SHOULD CLOSE IN 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...INCREASING
SHEAR...COOLER SSTS...AND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TR ANSITON.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR 12
HR...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF NUDGE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. AFTER 12 HR...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING...WITH EPSILON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 29.6N 53.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 30.0N 53.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.9N 51.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 32.0N 49.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 48.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/0000Z 34.5N 44.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/0000Z 36.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/0000Z 37.5N 35.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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#15 Postby P.K. » Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:21 am

TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005

SOME GRADUAL COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES... BUT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT... WITH THE
WEAKER END OF THIS RANGE DERIVED USING THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AND
THE HIGHER END USING AN EYE PATTERN. SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOT WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER... THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD... BUT ONLY TO 55 KT. THE NEXT
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS IS OCCURRING AT THIS HOUR... AND ONCE THAT DATA
ARRIVES IT MIGHT HELP CLARIFY THE INTENSITY. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS
REASON TO ARGUE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AS THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT INCREASE
MARKEDLY AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL FORECASTS BRIEF STRENGTHENING TO
ABOUT 60 KT LATER THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE FORECASTS THE
INTENSITY TO REMAIN IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...
WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND CALLS FOR A LITTLE WEAKENING
BEFORE EPSILON LIKELY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER 22C WATERS.

EPSILON HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 075/10 WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS OR SO. EPSILON IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... BUT THE LARGE-SCALE
MIDLATITUDE PATTERN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AS THE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD...
EPSILON SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT FORECAST EPSILON
TO MOVE VERY FAST... WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE GFS WHICH TAKES
THE STORM QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR BEING FASTER DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 30.2N 52.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 30.9N 50.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 32.0N 49.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 33.1N 47.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 34.0N 45.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/0600Z 37.0N 38.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/0600Z 38.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#16 Postby Coredesat » Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:22 am

Edited to remove discussion as PK beat me to it by a minute. :lol:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 010839
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU DEC 01 2005

...EPSILON NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT
765 MILES... 1230 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1530 MILES...2460
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH... 19
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON
WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND
ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...30.2 N... 52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#17 Postby Cookiely » Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:23 am

Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on December 01, 2005



...Epsilon now moving east-northeastward...
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 30.2 north... longitude 52.1 west or about
765 miles... 1230 km... east of Bermuda and about 1530 miles...2460
km...west-southwest of the Azores.

Epsilon is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph... 19
km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph... 100 km/hr... with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles... 185 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Although Epsilon will not directly affect Bermuda... large ocean
swells that are being generated well to the northwest of Epsilon
will move southwestward and continue to produce heavy surf and
rough wave conditions around the island during the next day or so.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...30.2 N... 52.1 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am AST.

Forecaster Knabb


$$
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#18 Postby Andy_L » Thu Dec 01, 2005 11:06 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 011440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005

OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND A RAGGED BANDING
EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO TRYING TO DEVELOP...AGAIN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER... A
01/0944Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985
MB AND 61 KT WINDS. THE AMSU ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY A LITTLE TOO
INTENSE FOR A SHALLOW HYBRID-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE EPSILON...
BUT THE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ARGUE FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN THE
45-50 KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 01/0847Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/10... ALTHOUGH EPSILON HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THAT EPSILON
WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. AFTER THAT...
HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO TWO CAMPS... WITH
THE GFDL... GFS... AND CANADIAN MODELS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING EPSILON
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WHEREAS THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDN...
AND ECMWF MOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AZORES. IN FACT... BY 120 HOURS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS STALL EPSILON NEAR 30N 40W. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY ALL THE MODELS... THE OFFICIAL
TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND THE RESULTANT INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.

THE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND THE RECENT RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A SMALL
BUT WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER SUGGEST
THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO... AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER... BY 24 HOURS THE EFFECTS OF COOLER
WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE SLOW
BUT STEADY WEAKENING... AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... BARRING ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER
WARMER WATER THAT WOULD PROLONG BOTH THE LIFETIME OF EPSILON AND
THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.2N 51.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 32.1N 50.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 33.4N 48.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 34.7N 46.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z 35.6N 45.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1200Z 37.5N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/1200Z 39.5N 36.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/1200Z 41.5N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#19 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Dec 01, 2005 3:42 pm

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#20 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:03 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 012046
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU DEC 01 2005

...EPSILON STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST OR ABOUT
810 MILES...1300 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1425 MILES...2290
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT... AND EPSILON
COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEGINS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON
WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND
ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND TONIGHT... WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.7 N... 51.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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