Ivan Advisories

[Hyperstorm]

And look at that....some barbs indicating winds of 50kts! We could be looking at a major hurricane with this system...

[Brent]

I think that the NHC is a little conservative in the intensity for Ivan because the sat presentation is excellent and all conditions are favoreble to bomb rapidly.I fear that the lesser antilles islands will see a major cane but that ia speculation on my part about intensity.

Yeah, but it's forecast to move west by south, and it's already south of 10N ...

How much further south can it move and still intensify?

Wrong.

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/1500z 9.6n 32.9w 40 kt
12hr VT 04/0000z 9.7n 35.5w 50 kt
24hr VT 04/1200z 10.0n 38.7w 55 kt
36hr VT 05/0000z 10.3n 42.0w 60 kt
48hr VT 05/1200z 10.5n 45.0w 65 kt
72hr VT 06/1200z 11.5n 51.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 07/1200z 13.0n 57.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 08/1200z 14.5n 63.0w 90 kt

[DelrayMorris]

I vote for Ivan to go back to Russia. I don't think I can take a Frances repeat next week.

[lurkerinthemidst]

Any while all the action is away from the GOM.........always watch for homegrown GOM storms. The W and Central GOM is way way to quite this year..............ominious indeed.

Bite your tounge I am already ready for this season to go away! I don't want anything in the GOM the Atlantic is enough of a headache to follow.

I also like the breathing under water comment. After I read that I said " that is it, that is how I feel"

[FLGuest]

Looks like Ivan could become the 4th major hurricane this year.... Wow.... Will this be a US treat down the road?

[Derek Ortt]

you may get your storm in the GOM, Kat Daddy. We've already had one near 5 in the GOM

[WindyNC]

I know we are all concerned about Frances right now, but Ivan has formed this morning and I am wondering what you all are thinking about that.

[Patrick99]

I am done with Frances...I look out my window, and see nothing but benign weather and deep blue sky, as I predicted. Sure, the occasional feederband might roll through, but these are no more "dangerous" or "destructive" than your typical summer thunderstorm. People around here really need to get a grip, and face reality.

Anyway, Ivan is looking good and more interesting than Frances at this point.

[x-y-no]

I'm thinking "here we go again" ... :-/

It's going to track awfully far south, so I'm not sure I believe the intensification which at least two people have forecast here this morning ... but it sure looks to me like it gets into the Carribean as a hurricane. I won't venture any speculation beyond that.

[Brent]

Looks like it could be a very dangerous hurricane moving through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Beyond that, possible threat to the U.S. in 7-10 days.

[canegrl04]

Given the forecast track,this one has GOM written all over it.There is a possibility it could crash into Mexico,too

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 31.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 03.09.2004 10.1N 31.6W MODERATE

00UTC 04.09.2004 10.2N 34.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2004 10.4N 36.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2004 11.1N 39.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2004 11.1N 42.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2004 11.9N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2004 12.7N 49.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2004 13.6N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2004 14.5N 56.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2004 16.1N 59.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2004 17.1N 62.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2004 19.3N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2004 20.6N 67.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[NJCane]

This either has to stay far south in which case it would be a threat to Mexico, or it will be caught by a massive trough coming into the east. Of course when it gets caught really means where and if it were to hit the US. Slower trough- eastern Gulf. Faster trough- over PR and up to Bermuda. Long way out, but thats what I see by the models and the setup that far out.

[cape_escape]

Thats all we need!!!!

[NJCane]

Looks like PR or just north at the end of that forecast. Look out cycloneye

[cycloneye]

Yes UKMET makes a hook to the NW almost east of Puerto Rico.

[NJCane]

GFDL also heading at PR, I am not sure if that is the new model run or the old one, but she hooks a right at the end.

[cycloneye]

GFDL also heading at PR, I am not sure if that is the new model run or the old one, but she hooks a right at the end.

Do you have the link of the GFDL?

[NJCane]

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

[cycloneye]

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

Thank you.

I just got the text for the GFDL.


274
WHXX04 KWBC 031729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IVAN 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.6 32.0 260./15.9
6 9.6 33.7 268./16.9
12 9.6 35.4 271./16.2
18 9.5 36.6 263./12.1
24 9.4 38.6 267./19.5
30 9.7 40.3 281./17.4
36 9.8 41.9 273./15.7
42 9.8 43.3 270./14.4
48 9.9 45.0 274./15.9
54 10.4 46.8 287./18.8
60 10.6 48.6 274./17.9
66 10.7 50.1 274./15.1
72 11.0 51.7 283./15.3
78 11.3 53.5 280./18.1
84 11.5 55.1 277./15.6
90 11.7 56.6 278./15.0
96 12.0 58.1 281./15.3
102 12.5 59.2 292./11.7
108 13.1 60.4 300./12.8
114 13.9 61.7 299./14.6
120 14.7 62.7 309./13.5
126 15.8 63.9 313./15.0