Earl Advisories

[Hurricanehink]

Here's a wishcast in the truest and well-meaning sense of the word for, short of doing a Debby, a landfall in a sparsely populated area of the Mexican coast south of Tampico as a struggling borderline Cat 1.

You mean Chantal? Yea, that would be the best case scenario, especially if it stays at T.S. intensity.

[Guest]

Dont people learn,didnt we just see Charley unexpected turn @ the last minute.Did'nt we see the model runs shift a dozen times before finally getting it together.So why are some people starting to put Earl in a specific area already.Unbelievable!

[wx247]

Here we go again... another busy week ahead here @ S2K.

[Guest]

we are having a discussion in chat and right now charly looks to be a cat 4 with winds of 145mph when entering the GOM. very preliminary however.

[Guest]

Is the NHC site slow at updating or something because it still says TD 5?

[lilbump3000]

Its going to say Tropical Storm Earl at 5 p.m. EDT. The reason why it still says TD 5 because at the 2 p.m. advisory it was still a TD.

[LAwxrgal]

NOGAPS really frightens me, putting it on basically Charley's path!

Anyway, we should have learned already not to put too much stock in forecast models, for these storms tend to have minds of their own!

[lilbump3000]

I think the NOGAPS has some kind of error with it or something right now.

[Guest]

Its going to say Tropical Storm Earl at 5 p.m. EDT. The reason why it still says TD 5 because at the 2 p.m. advisory it was still a TD.

Okay, thanks. I am kind of slow today! Yeah, I understood it to be a TS by 5pm.

[Stormsfury]

Here we go again... another busy week ahead here @ S2K.

Um ... *cough*, *cough* ... did I not say something 3 weeks ago, look out in August? ...

[Skywatch_NC]

I even heard Mike Seidel on the CBS Early Show segment this AM say that we really get into the meat of the season from mid August to mid October!

Eric

[Guest]

I dont think that NOGAPS has an error due to the fact that the swirl se of newfoundland may be the remnants of danielle.

[wx247]

Here we go again... another busy week ahead here @ S2K.

Um ... *cough*, *cough* ... did I not say something 3 weeks ago, look out in August? ...

You probably did. I might not have been paying attention.

[Thunder44]

I don't think NOGAPS is a good model to begin with. So I wouldn't be too concerned about it.

[Vortex]

Several models continue to indicate a nw turn beyond 60 hours...It appears there may be enough troughing just off the eastern seaboard to induce a more northerly component. As one can clearly see the troughiness extending over the western atlantic sw across the bahamas appears to be what several models are picking up on...This would create enough of a weakness to induce a more poleward movement....This must be watched extremely closely for persons in Cuba and Florida.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[HURAKAN]

Thanks, I think the same, pay close attention, let see what happens by Wednesday, after that, we know what it will do.

[Guest]

earl could possible be a cane with winds of 145mph upon entering GOM. We're having a discussion about it in chat. Watch out from the Keys to Houston.

[Skywatch_NC]

earl could possible be a cane with winds of 145mph upon entering GOM. We're having a discussion about it in chat. Watch out from the Keys to Houston.

With all due respect...even the NHC has trouble w/ intensity forecasts at times.

And with all due respect...speculating on Earl (5 to 6 days out) being a Cat 4 by the time he reaches the GOM...seems far-fetched.

[Aquawind]

earl could possible be a cane with winds of 145mph upon entering GOM. We're having a discussion about it in chat. Watch out from the Keys to Houston.

With all due respect...even the NHC has trouble w/ intensity forecasts at times.

And with all due respect...speculating on Earl (5 to 6 days out) being a Cat 4 by the time he reaches the GOM...seems far-fetched.

Exactly..Thank You Skywatch_NC

[GulfBreezer]

While I would never ever wish a cane on any area, but Florida needs a break. Here in the panhandle, we have been spared on many close calls, but if one would head to the FLPH now, this season would have almost completely devastated the entire state!! All eyes are definitely on Earl and those eyes should include the entire GULF COAST. Sit tight, breathe deep and be informed!! One thing that NO-ONE can truly predict is Mother Nature!!