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#1021 Postby Superstorm » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:37 pm

yall sound thrilled that a cat5 will hit fla


Cat 5 hits Florida: massive destruction near landfall point.
Cat 5 hits Cuba or Hispaniola: 2000 people die.

As bad as it might be, this country is better equiped to handle a major hurricane than anywhere else in the world. My prayers go out to the landfall zone wherever that may be.
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#1022 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:39 pm

"From Russia With Love..."


Ivan now 140 mph, 943 mb


Cat 5 coming soon me thinks!
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#1023 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:40 pm

Holy crap. I look at the updated forecast from the TPC and I get a little excited, then I see Ortt's forecast and I start sweating.
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#1024 Postby clueless newbie » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:40 pm

WeatherNLU wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Ivan is a small storm, about the size of Charley IMO. Or maybe I just used to the huge Frances?


Ivan is not as small as Charley but not as big as Frances. More like in between.

Hm, I think Ivan is almost as big as Frances was and has a chance to grow even bigger. Have a look at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

there is nasty weather from Venezuela all the way to Puertorico. Really frightening storm. It looks so much stronger then this morning.
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#1025 Postby ~SirCane » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:42 pm

Models will flip flop on this till it gets to Cuba.

New Orleans to the Keys IMO
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#1026 Postby tallywx » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:42 pm

Rob Nucatola...WCTV6 at noon showing the tracking map: "and by Monday...*WHEW*"

That sums up our sentiments pretty well.
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#1027 Postby LeeJet » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:43 pm

It will most likely hit Florida. The trough will weaken the high, thus providing a weakness making Ivan go NNE.
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#1028 Postby shorrock » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:43 pm

the Fox WPBF Forcast team down here was calling it Ivan The Terrible on Sunday. Had the name on the graphics and everything. I think they were too slap happy after having been on the air for about 3 1/2 days non stop.
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#1029 Postby ~SirCane » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:46 pm

GFS is garbage
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nomolos
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Aruba probably getting some nasty weather

#1030 Postby nomolos » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:46 pm

From the latest IR images looks like the major red convection area around ivan is just skirting the northern edges of aruba right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
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#1031 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:48 pm

HollynLA wrote:
Carolinas!!


Fine by me! They can have it....... now someone needs to let Ivan in on this. :lol:


Don't want it ... we've had

Alex ...
Bonnie ...
Charley ...
Gaston ...
then Frances ...

SF
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#1032 Postby schmita » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:48 pm

Thanks Canelaw99.

My sister in Palm Beach is also a canelaw though I can't remember what year. Around that time though.

I just listened to Norcross and he doesn't know either. Everyone down there thinks he's great because of Andrew ! ?

Will wait and see. Wind gust of 25+mph here. Boats/yachts coming into lagoon for safe harbor.

High seas on south side.

Thanks again
irina
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#1033 Postby Jetman » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:48 pm

Latest Metars from the ABC islands

TNCA 082100Z 02013KT 9999 SCT016 BKN120 BKN350 27/23 Q1006
TNCB 082100Z 28026V36KT 9999 RA SCT015 BKN080 BKN300 25/22 Q1003
TNCC 082100Z 31013KT 9999 -RA FEW015 BKN100 OVC140 25/23 Q1005

Jetman
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#1034 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:50 pm

Carolinas!!


Not funny.
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#1035 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:50 pm

Our local met just said Easter/Central Gulf likely target for Ivan . Also said" lets hope our good friends in Florida don't see this"
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#1036 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:50 pm

Irina - you're welcome. Unfortunately, the majority of the local mets are all saying the same thing - just wait and see. At least it will give us a few days in here to restock supplies and hopefully get some fuel into the stations. :wink:
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#1037 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:52 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Oceanic heat content is significantly lower in the GOM than it currently is. Therefore, if the storm mvoes slowly, it may encounter some upwelling


OK, that makes more sense ... and I see the discussion has been edited, so obviously we're not the only ones who thought the original wording was odd. :-)
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#1038 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:53 pm

I agree, Cat 5 looks likely by tomorrow if this trend continues. Looks very much like Mitch now. Here's a shot I snapped at 4pm. Wouldn't be surprised to see pressure in the 920s tomorrow and winds, eventually, over 160 mph:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ivan26.gif">
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#1039 Postby greeng13 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:54 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
HollynLA wrote:
Carolinas!!


Fine by me! They can have it....... now someone needs to let Ivan in on this. :lol:


Don't want it ... we've had

Alex ...
Bonnie ...
Charley ...
Gaston ...
then Frances ...

SF


sorry i did forget about alex.....i was south carolina centered...but either way we (i.e. my north and south caroilinians) have IMO taken many for the team (i used that again)
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petunia
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#1040 Postby petunia » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:54 pm

I would love for Ivan to just fizzle out but I know that isn't going to happen. To the north towards Florida and then up the SE coast. Just my input. I am no HURRICANELOVER. lol
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