Ivan Advisories

[Praxus]

Poor Jamaica...a direct hit by a cat 5 would flatten the entire island.

[canegrl04]

Somebody should've told Mitch and Gilbert about the "can't sustain high intensity " theory

We're going to see a special update at 8pm I imagine,to tell us Ivan just reached cat 5

[msbee]

GRENADA RELIEF – PLEASE READ

The following letter (posted on http://www.caribbeannetnews.com from Richard Allan Nixon the Consul-General includes contact information in Florida along with a list of basic items that are likely to be required in Grenada...

Letters to the Editor
Wednesday, September 8, 2004
To all Grenadians and Friends of Grenada:

Today, I reach out to you in a moment of need for our fellow Grenadians in our tri- island State of Grenada, Carriacou and Petit Martinique. Grenada has been seriously impacted by Hurricane Ivan.

Grenada suffered a direct hit for Ivan and preliminary reports indicate that there is tremendous damage to personal property, livestock, produce and life. We do not have a firm number on the details of the effect of Ivan as yet, however, we are quite certain that the impact is quite substantial.

As we battle with our own efforts in the state of Florida with the after effects of Hurricane Charlie and more recently, Hurricane Frances, it is what a very humble heart I reach out to you for assistance for our fellow countrymen. At this time we do not have details of the urgent needs in Grenada, however I am quite certain that the following items would be requested:

Clothing
Building materials
Non Perishable foods
Water
Money
Transportation of goods to Grenada
Power tools
Medical supplies, equipment and personnel
Other items

I have arranged to meet with a core team of Grenadians tomorrow morning (Wednesday) to work out the details and logistics to get items to Grenada within a very short period of time. We will send out an email with pertinent details of where you can drop off or ship items to one of our holding centers and where any funds can be sent.

I hope to have an update for you sometime tomorrow. Please feel to call our offices or email with any questions you may have. You may also wish to cascade this message to other members of your mailing list as you see fit.

Sincerely,
Richard Allan Nixon
Hon Consul-General
Consulate General of Grenada
201 Biscayne Blvd, Suite 2800
Miami, Florida 33131
Main: +1 305 913 7555
Fax: +1 954 538 9615

[ericinmia]

LOL, too bad that map you posted of the "stearing currents is over 12 hours old... from what has occured today, that map is not exactly a good basis for forecasting considering the large charges that have occured in stearing currents!
-Eric

[rainstorm]

you are the one rational person on the board, tallywx. i need hope too, instead of people finding glee in ivan becoming a killer.

[Janie34]

From NWS Mobile-Pensacola:

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PROGRESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WORKING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES AS
FRANCES MORPHS INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FRONTOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY AND MAY HELP ESTABLISH A SOMEWHAT
SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST.

I thought this in particular was very interesting with implications for the present situation with Ivan and for the immediate future.

JACKSON AND SLIDELL SOUNDING DATA INDICATES PW VALUES PROGRESSED
EVEN LOWER TO BETWEEN AN INCH AND A HALF TO AN INCH AN A QUARTER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDWEST
DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES MOVING UP
THE EAST SIDE OF THAT BROAD TROUGH.

They're right about that. It is certainly drier down here, if not much cooler. Look at Texas this afternoon. Dallas sitting at 86 F (IIRC) in late summer? Thats something. The mornings in particular here are almost comfortable. Again, there is an implication for the future path of Ivan.

.SHORT TERM...POPS CONTINUE NIL TO 10 THROUGH THURSDAY. FRONT WOULD
DRIFT FURTHER EAST AS THE LOW...AKA FRANCES... IN THE MIDLANT STATES
LIFTS NORTHWARD. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP RH DOWN IN THE AFTERNOONS.

/77

The first line alone tells you there is a much drier airmass over SW Alabama. The remnants of Frances continue to affect the synoptic pattern.

.EXTENDED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PROMULGATE. LATEST GFS MODEL
CONTINUES MAINTAINING AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON APPROACH OF HURRICANE IVAN FROM WESTERN CUBA BY THE
WEEKEND. LATEST TPC FORECAST TRACK HAS IVAN MOVING UP ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...RIGHT
NOW IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SKILLFULLY FORECAST THE ROLE IVAN WILL
PLAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOCALLY. A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION SHOULD BE HAD OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...
STAY TUNED.

Realising of course this is 5 days out, however note that at least GFS (and a couple of other models) maintain the anticyclone north of the Mobile CWA. The flip side of the coin is that there has to be a trough as well, perhaps in the same general vicinity of where Frances made landfall, i.e. NW Florida/Big Bend area. OTOH, patterns do shift. Still waaaay too early to call this.

[greeng13]

I would love for Ivan to just fizzle out but I know that isn't going to happen. To the north towards Florida and then up the SE coast. Just my input. I am no HURRICANELOVER. lol

i'll agree with many that just about everyone in the south/southeast (and possibly even mexico) should keep an eye out

[x-y-no]

Still haven't found any higher flight level winds, but it's pretty hard to belive he's not stronger at this point.

The temperature profile is looking better too.

[canegrl04]

Mama mia


Ivan's thinking, "who's next on my list?"

[schmita]

Sounds good.
Awaiting further details on drop off points in Miami, though how they will get this stuff to Grenada is a mystery to me. Airport underwater. What you think B, ship? Maybe we should contact Tropical?

[Matthew5]

Rainstorm histroy has shown these storms hit Florida all the time. We have just built in there area. It is mostly are felt for the death in damage they are causing us. Please calm down.

[Innotech]

When you see the next shade of color start appearing on that intellicast IR image (beyond purple), then you'll have a cat 5. That's what I saw when that cat 5 that hit the Yucatan...was it last summer?

That blue color beyond purple already showed up...in Ivan
At that point it was intensifying to Cat 4. The blue was so abundant and impressive I took several screencaps of the radars.

[Thunder44]

Good. Statistically, the stronger it is now, the less likely it can maintain that strength over many days. Hopefully, it being strong now means it'll be weaker by the time it approaches the U.S. I know that doesn't make sense, but I'm irrationally looking/needing hope here.

That's true. Better to get stronger now then when hits land. Pretty much one reason why Frances weakened before it hit Florida. It was very strong for a long time.

[x-y-no]

you are the one rational person on the board, tallywx. i need hope too, instead of people finding glee in ivan becoming a killer.

What glee?

Like I said earlier ... I respect your feelings, but I don't see the sense in burying my head in the sand. I'm here trying to understand the truth of the situation whatever that is.

[Thunder44]

you are the one rational person on the board, tallywx. i need hope too, instead of people finding glee in ivan becoming a killer.

I'm not sure if you really understood what tallywx said.

[Janie34]

Interesting satellite piccie. Note all the overshooting tops of those intense thunderstorms. The early morning and late afternoon shots are really good for picking those out.

[greeng13]

anyone have any input on what occurs when ivan crosses cuba (as it is not forecast to do)

i.e. mountains?

[x-y-no]

anyone have any input on what occurs when ivan crosses cuba (as it is not forecast to do)

i.e. mountains?

The mountains in Cuba are in the eastern portion of the island. The west is pretty flat.

[rainstorm]

ivan will cross west cuba, and it will no effect on ivan whatsoever

[ericinmia]

I feel left out in Miami area that we haven't gotten a storm, this one could be it
joking, of course.

haha, i hear ya
-Eric