Bonnie Advisories

[SouthernWx]

WELCOME BACK PERRY!! I look forward to your considerable store of knowledge helping us figure this all out!!!

Thanks David....it's good to be back!

It definitely looks complicated....especially if TD-2 becomes a hurricane as the SHIPS guidance indicates.

[Nimbus]

So it's confirmed. Bonnie has a tight low level circulation with lowest surface pressure of around 1008. Highest winds were 45 knots in the southeast quadrant.

[ncweatherwizard]

Bonnie:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... onnie.html

No hurricane forecast...landfall in the FL panhandle, but possible anywhere from LA eastward.

If things work out just right, that might be a little conservative, but I'm pretty comfortable with 80kts right now...I don't have a hurricane until 72 hours...seems sensible...lots of "stuff" to consider that's in the forecast. Things look to be quite conducive at the end of the forecast period I will also say.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... three.html

[Hyperstorm]

If things work out just right, that might be a little conservative, but I'm pretty comfortable with 80kts right now...I don't have a hurricane until 72 hours...seems sensible...lots of "stuff" to consider that's in the forecast.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... three.html

As you well said, that might sound just a little too conservative, but there's plenty of time to monitor the system. It is still days away from any landmass, especially the US. The forecast shouldn't be a problem that far out, as there's enough time to adjust it if necessary.

[*StOrmsPr*]

40kt

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (AL022004) ON 20040809 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040809 1800 040810 0600 040810 1800 040811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 88.6W 23.6N 89.9W 24.2N 90.9W 24.9N 91.3W
BAMM 23.0N 88.6W 23.7N 89.8W 24.3N 90.4W 25.1N 90.1W
A98E 23.0N 88.6W 24.1N 90.5W 25.3N 91.9W 26.6N 92.1W
LBAR 23.0N 88.6W 23.9N 90.2W 24.9N 91.5W 26.1N 92.1W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 60KTS 68KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 60KTS 68KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040811 1800 040812 1800 040813 1800 040814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 90.7W 29.1N 85.2W 34.7N 79.5W 41.6N 72.4W
BAMM 25.8N 89.0W 26.9N 85.1W 29.6N 81.8W 34.4N 75.9W
A98E 27.8N 91.2W 31.2N 87.7W 37.0N 79.6W 46.9N 65.2W
LBAR 27.8N 91.5W 31.9N 85.1W 39.8N 72.7W 44.2N 62.9W
SHIP 76KTS 83KTS 73KTS 60KTS
DSHP 76KTS 83KTS 48KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 88.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.6W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.9N LONM24 = 84.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 25NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 25NM

[ChaserUK]

Well it certainly looks like I am gonna have to do some sweet talking at work if I am to have a chance to chase this thing. But I might just ask for next week off work just in case - I can always cancel later.

[Air Force Met]

Sure do...56 kts...55 at surface

URNT12 KNHC 092001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2001Z
B. 23 DEG 03 MIN N
88 DEG 37 MIN W
C. NA
D. 55 KT
E. 065 DEG 004 NM
F. 132 DEG 56 KT
G. 060 DEG 005 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 25 C/ 322 M
J. 26 C/ 334 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /1
O. 1/1 NM
P. AF963 0302A INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 1952Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

[PTrackerLA]

[Hurricanehink]

Whoa! Thanks for that. It has held convection all day. Well, let's see where it goes...

[Aquawind]

Sure do...56 kts...55 at surface

URNT12 KNHC 092001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2001Z
B. 23 DEG 03 MIN N
88 DEG 37 MIN W
C. NA
D. 55 KT
E. 065 DEG 004 NM
F. 132 DEG 56 KT
G. 060 DEG 005 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 25 C/ 322 M
J. 26 C/ 334 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /1
O. 1/1 NM
P. AF963 0302A INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 1952Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

Bingo!! Exactly what I was waiting for!!

[Hyperstorm]

Exactly! This system has always had potential! I don't understand why some people just gave up on it as if it weren't close to the US...

[bkhusky2]

Wow! 56knots! That surprises me, but I'm glad to see it. I don't know if anything is standing in this things way from becoming a hurricane and or major hurricane.

[Hurricanehink]

Not a bad forecast. It may not strengthen that much, or it can explode. It just needs to slow a little, and hold together.

[PTrackerLA]

It's probably been a TD since last night if it's already Bonnie.

[Stormsfury]

Notice the LARGE outflow boundary that busted out of the NNE side of the cyclone on VIS loop imagery ... saw the RECON report of 55 kt winds EST at the SFC, but was that the gust front from a large squall? ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Thunder44]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ublic.html

[PTrackerLA]

That outflow boundary busted out this morning. I doubt the wind was measured from the boundary as it is well away from the center now. There is intense convection right over the center and that's probably where the measurement came from.

[Hyperstorm]

Unfortunately, this pattern reminds me of 1988. TS Florence developed in the southern Gulf where TS Bonnie is located, while at the very same time, TS Gilbert was developing off the Windward Islands. Florence eventually came to a landfall in LA as a Hurricane and Gilbert....well, we all know what it did. Not to alarm anyone, but things are going to become unusually active in the tropics coming up...

[PTrackerLA]

According to the forecast path it will be hitting the Florida panhandle on Thursday. Looks more like an October path due to unseasonably strong cold front coming through late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.

[Lindaloo]

DT
Professional-Met



Joined: 14 Sep 2003
Posts: 248
Location: richmond va
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:05 pm Post subject:

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There is a better chance of ralph nader winning the presidency than NON thing that was once TD 2 developing into a TC

Typhoon_Willie wrote:
You forget about the possibility of TD#2 developing as MWatkins has mentioned in another thread...If that happens then TD 3 may be forced northward a bit sooner than forecasted!
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Someone serve DT a nice big plate of crow. LOL!!