Alex Advisories

[Aquawind]

Alex - "the storm that seized the window of opportunity to the fullest" ...

Alex did that alrighty..Great post SF!

[Rainband]

My sister and her family just returned from Europe. They arrived in Philly to make their connection to Montoursville Pa. There flight was canceled. They have to wait for a new flight at 10:30pm. I guess the flight originated in an area where Alex is causing Problems At least they are almost home

[Hyperstorm]

That is an awesome technical post as well as some of the others I have seen here recently, included ones from Derek, Dean, StormChaser, USAWX1 and many others which have escaped my mind...I'm sorry! Everyone is a great asset to the team!

[Stormsfury]

I thought Alex would be one of those "barely made it" hurricanes like Erika in 2003.

When I read it was upgraded last night to a hurricane, I thought 80 mph would be as far as it got and for a short period of time.

Apparently not.

I know how you feel ... when I really came to the realization that Alex would become a hurricane was when the evening's RECON found the closed eyewall ... 25 NM and circular ... and in looking back at the RECON reports last night, only then did I know that it was becoming a hurricane ...

[ColdFront77]

There was talk about Alex becoming a moderate to strong tropical storm to perhaps weak hurricane shortly after it became Alex.

[The Dark Knight]

I thought MAYBE cat. 1.. But I doubted it....

[The Dark Knight]

WowAlex caused some cancelations... Hmmm....

[ColdFront77]

Tropical meteorology is the most difficult type to forecast.

With that said, the upper level winds weren't too strong, water temperature were plenty warm and there was an upper level high almost over the storm.

What would of inhibited it's development?

[OtherHD]

2 nights ago in chat i said 80 knots

yes you did and I agreed with you. Where's my credit?

[Thunder44]

From Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtm ... ID=5863439

[Rainband]

Wow!!! Glad he stayed off shore. Very happy no one was killed or seriously injured. Hopefully this is a lesson not to be complacent.

[weatherlover427]

That has to be one of the best posts so far this season. Great job Mike, well done!

[Rainband]

That is an awesome technical post as well as some of the others I have seen here recently, included ones from Derek, Dean, StormChaser, USAWX1 and many others which have escaped my mind...I'm sorry! Everyone is a great asset to the team!

I was talking about the S2K forecasters Although...I agree all the members are assets to our family!!

[VanceWxMan]

After being verified by radar and satellite Alex did NOT make landfall...but came freaking close!

Aaron

[Derek Ortt]

I'm referring to a hit as a hit. It is listed as a cat 2 for the obx, officially

[KatDaddy]

Being in an eyewall is a direct hit. A direct hit by a hurricane is to expericence the worst conditions. The eye is just part of the direct hit thus I side with Dereck and evertone else who has experienced an eyewall which includes me.

Now expericencing a direct hit of the eye is different. It depends on your perspective of a direct hit but the eyewall if a major force and still goes down as a direct hit in my book...............Alicia 83

[KatDaddy]

Corrections:

Being in an eyewall is a direct hit. A direct hit by a hurricane is to expericence the worst conditions. The eye is just part of the direct hit thus I side with Dereck and everyone else who has experienced an eyewall which includes me...........Alicia 83

Now expericencing a direct hit of the eye is different. It depends on your perspective of a direct hit. Regardless of which side of the fence the eyewall if a major force. An eyewall still goes down as a direct hit in my book...............again Alicia 83 enough said from KatDaddy.....wow I got a little uptight on the issue

[wolfray]

Let me tell you folks something. Our area was in the Northeast quad of Fran '96 with the eye passing about 25 miles to our west. If we did not suffer a hit, I do not want to be here when we do. Direct or not!!!!!!!!

[NC George]

Eye of Bertha went over my house. Fran little to the west, Isabel went a little to the east.

Of the three, staying the NE Quad of Fran was the worst, Bertha was next worst, and Isabel was easiest.

[Hyperstorm]

This is a post I made in another thread that talked about the same debate...I do this for the benefit of some who may never open the other thread...

Great discussion! Derek is right. The system made a DIRECT hit to NC and will be put in the record books that way. This is EXACTLY the same situation with Fabian from last year.

In fact read the Tropical Cyclone Report from the NHC:

"A large mid-tropospheric trough nearing the east coast of the United States provided a more northward steering flow, and Fabian turned north-northwestward to northward with increasing forward speed. Fabian targeted Bermuda, and struck that island with an intensity close to 100 kt. The eastern eyewall of the hurricane moved over Bermuda around 2000 UTC on 5 September. Observers on the western end of the island reported a brief interlude of blue sky and winds decreasing to 50-60 kt at various times between 1945 and 2115 UTC, which indicates that they were in the eastern fringes of Fabian's eye. The center of Fabian did not make landfall. However, since the eyewall passed over Bermuda, the hurricane made a direct hit on that island."

There's the proof and there's more...The closest approach to Bermuda was 20-30 miles, but it was still classified as a direct hit. Just think about this system which came a rather scary 10 miles off Hatteras.

A direct hit indeed...