Charley Advisories

[rainstorm]

good news for west fla and the keys?

[Derek Ortt]

Nah, just means a stronger storm for FL and the EC

[rainstorm]

i think it will move further west

[Guest]

I just looked at the latest vis. Hey this has big time potential to be a Major Hurricane. It is moving into a very favorable area. Good luck you all.

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest IR Radar Loop of C1 H Charley


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

[rtd2]

Still wnw (more west than anything) Yes it did slow dowm from 24 to 18 but thats still pretty fast for a turn or rapid growth

[Brent]

Yep... I think it'll get stronger than the NHC predicts. It's strengthened more than they thought so far anyway.

[MWatkins]

Still wnw (more west than anything) Yes it did slow dowm from 24 to 18 but thats still pretty fast for a turn or rapid growth

Looks like the initial motion is still 285/15...although it may be jsut a bit slower than that going fix to fix over the last 3 hours.

15 knots is the climatological average for systems moving across the atlantic at this time of year...

Pressures are down 6mb in the last 3 hours too.

MW

[zoeyann]

What does slowing down do to the track. How Does it affect the time frame and location of the projected turn?

[sprink52]

Just in case, I started sorting out the storm pannels, check all of the flash light
batteries, first aid kit, battery powered radio, etc. This time Thursday I'll know if I should "Shutter Up". Trust me, I watch these things very closely. In my lifetime I experienced Camile, David, Fredrick, Hugo, Andrew & Irene. The deffinition of awe is feeling your first sustained 100+ MPH blast from a Cape Verde Atlantic Hurricane. It has a very humbling affect on one's being.

We are watching this one in Palm Beach County!!!

[cycloneye]

11/1745 UTC 16.6N 76.7W T4.0/4.0 CHARLE

[LaBreeze]

Obviously, Charley has slowed. Does this mean that he will definitely start to recurve?

[LaBreeze]

zoeyann, I was thinking the same thing. Could it possible miss the trough and head further west if it continues to slow? Anyone know if this is a possibility at all?

[southerngale]

You're doing the right thing...too bad so many people are caught unprepared and panic at the last minute.

Welcome to storm2k sprink52!!

[sponger]

kooks like we are under the Gun. I bought my supllies at lunch today, I reco the rest in Fl do the same tonight. Tomorrow will be a circus!

[CocoaBill]

The BAMM takes Charley toward LA coast. What kind of biases does this model have? Is there something valid that it is keying in on that the other models are not?

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Aquawind]

It doesn't really matter if it says 105 or 135...it shows that the conditions are ripe for strengthening. The only thing about the model intensity forecast people need to remember is that when they are right on...it was the luck of the draw. As my dad says...even a blind squirrel gets the acorn every once in a while.

Well Said..

[dixiebreeze]

Any landfall along the Fla. west coast from Tampa Bay south at around 100 mph is a catastrophe in the making.

[WeatherEmperor]

If you look carefully at the latest visible, at the last few frames, is it just my mind going crazy or is a WNW motion trying to resume?

<RICKY>

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Weatherboy1]

It does appear that over the past few hours, Charley has started jogging more WNW or NW. Too early to say if this is the start of "the turn." But forward speed has definitely slowed, and that is typically what you see before a direction change. I am very interested to see what changes there will be to forecast track, new watches and warnings, etc. at 5 p.m.