Alex Advisories

[Stormcenter]

Alex is a "beautiful" hurricane. I mean everything looks
perfect. Can you imagine him entering the GOM in that condition, scary thought huh?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[WXBUFFJIM]

Definitely a dangerous area for tropical development in the Gulf. Alex is over 26-27c waters now.

[rainstorm]

definitely a cat3

[rainstorm]

a cat3 for sure, lets give some credit to matthew, he said it would be a cat3

[WXBUFFJIM]

GDFL model was pinpointing this scenario and they tend to be over aggressive at times. The bottom line though, even if this system becomes extratropical, it could still be very powerful as it heads into the United Kingdom in the next week or so. Luckily though for the United States, this hurricane will not directly impact the United States anymore. There could be 5-10 foot swells from Maryland and Delaware northward into the New England coast due to the waves being generated by this hurricane. But that's the worse indirect effect we'll see in the United States from Hurricane Alex.

Jim

[ColdFront77]

The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are generally between 29°C to 31°C / 84°F to 88°F throughout the Gulf of Mexico.

They are slightly cooler (above 80°F) south of Miami and across the southwestern Atlantic... around the Bahamas/north of Cuba.

[Guest]

These are the temps as we speak for the gulf, carrib and atlantic.

[Trader Ron]

The East Coast dodged a real bullet with Alex. It could have been a calamity. Especially if it hit the Northeast at High Tide.

[Valkhorn]

All I can say is wow...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's really looking well right now, and I wonder if it'll make it to Cat 3.

Any thoughts?

[Thunder44]

I think it's already is a Cat 3. Looks too good for a Cat 2. It's just depends on whether the NHC upgrades it or not.

[Valkhorn]

Thunder, if you look at the IR loop the eye still does look a little ragged. Plus satellite intensity estimates haven't hit 5.5 yet.

It may have peaked out.

[Thunder44]

The IR loop doesn't tell the whole story. The visible loops show a more circular look to the eye and you also see the stadium effect in the visible pics, if you look up close on the Nasa site. Also the Dvorak numbers where taken earlier this afternoon, it's looked a little better since then. They will be new numbers out later this evening.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[hurricanefreak1988]

Are you kidding me?! Man, Alex is defying the odds right now. The way this is going he'll probably hit the UK as a TS

[FWBHurricane]

I was checking some of the models and one of them ( BAM Medium ) wants to turn it back towards the coast of Africa. Would Alex be strong enough to pose another threat? Sounds interesting but i dont know if this will actually happen..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Matthew5]

It is doing the old moving with the shear bombing!!!


04/1745 UTC 37.7N 68.5W T5.0/5.0 ALEX

[Guest]

It would be interesting if it could, but it appears the BAM may be out to lunch. The other model solutions appear a bit more realistic, IMHO. But it is something to watch.

[Rainband]

I saw that. Doubt it though

[Stephanie]

I was amazed at how well alex looked this evening when I was catching the weather report!

[EDR1222]

Definately looking healthy! Predicting this storms intensity sure hasn' been easy for the forecasters. Alex seems to have a mind of his own as far as intensity goes!

[ColdFront77]

It has always been known the NHC forecasting the track is easier than forecasting intensity.