Ivan Advisories

[rainstorm]

good point. the ull appears to be rapidly moving west and weakening

[Derek Ortt]

Charley actually weakened from 105KT to 90KT whole crossing Cuba. Officially, according to best track, Charley made landfall in Cuba as a category 3 storm with 105KT winds

[btsgmdad]

I'm talking Gilbert and Mitch really being the only two true super hurricanes I've followed. Floyd, Isabel, Andrew, and Hugo were impressive. But those two storms are the strongest we've seen in the last 35 years. This one "could" challenge them.

[greeng13]

i guess no one saw my question....what was the total pressure drop (24 hour) on the day that ivan went from TS to hurricane status of some sort (i believe i heard CAT4)?

[spaceisland]

The elongation is pretty dramatic... it will be interesting to see how and when the winds push him north... especially since the laws of physics incorporate a poleward component anyways...

... all I know is that I want Ivan to turn north so FAST that it only brushes the CONUS and goes out to sea. Three-fourths of the gas stations here on the Space Coast are still without fuel. If Ivan comes, I would not want to be the newscaster telling the audience to "fill up the gas tank."

[Huckster]

HOWEVER....

What is more important is the orientation of the storm... NORTH TO SOUTH (Elongated)
This signafies it is "preparing" for its more northerly turn...


Can't argue with that
-Eric

Let me throw a few things out here real quick. After watching that IR loop, I really don't see any elongation. I think the only thing that happened is this, an illusion based on the last frame of that loop (it's 5:55 central time as I type this). I understand what you're saying about elongating, but that's something that takes a little while to happen, as in many hours or more. You could see it with Hugo, Lili, and Isabel. Those are just some that come to mind. Again, in all those systems, the whole flow around those storms changed shape, not just a wobble in the CDO. If there's any chaning in the current shape of the storm, it's actually trending more to the west. That upper low is closing off rather quickly and hurrying off to the west. That's why the outflow is rapidly expanding that way. Until this thing slows down significantly, I don't think there's going to be a "turn." Instead, more of a slow arc, in my opinion. Seems like a lot of models have been trying to turn this thing unrealistically for several days. So far, Ivan is still charging WNW.

[PTrackerLA]

You can't always look at the clouds and tell where the storm will go. It is really hauling slightly N of due west right now and will take a long time for it to turn NW IMO. I'm not buying into the models right now, we'll see what things look like tomorrow.

[ericinmia]

HOWEVER....

What is more important is the orientation of the storm... NORTH TO SOUTH (Elongated)
This signafies it is "preparing" for its more northerly turn...

<P>Couldn't that be simply because of interaction with South America? <P>Honest newbie question.

If it were due to interaction with South America the southern part of the storm should be sheared and slightly lopsided on the east side as these bands wrap back around. When a major tropical system is undergoing a change in conditions that will change its course, it will change its shape in relation to this course change. A west to east orientation suggest a change in course to the west, a change in orientation from symetrical to north to south suggest that soon the storm will begin a more northerly heading.

I'll look for some reasources on this for you later, i don't have the chance at the moment... i hope this helped.
-Eric

[calidoug]

The models are coming into fairly decent agreement on a WNW --> NW --> NNW --> N progression. The real question (for landfall) is the exact shape of the curve. At this point, the Yucatan and central GOM option seems doubtful. I think the best shot at missing FL would actually be too sharp of a turn, just skirting the keys and Miami. If that doesn't happen, it's hard to see it missing FL. All my opinion, of course.

[Jetman]

greeng13

it were 45 mb...from 995 to 950. but this was estimated per satellite...hurricane hunters later reported that day 965 mb.

[spaceisland]

School resumes here on Monday. Most Palm Bay schools, as of today, still have no power. Perhaps by Thursday (and certainly by Friday) the course and speed will be clear enough to know whether or not we need to resecure our classrooms and plan on teaching during Winter Break!

[greeng13]

thanks jetman...all the way from germany too!!!

[ericinmia]

It appears that it is beginning to form that orientation... not that it had finished doing so already.
The CDO, and outflow all are beginning to tend north and south...

He is another example from NRL meteostat...

[ericinmia]

Here is a link to the video of that, click most recent and large images...
It shows that this is a progressive change that has been occuring over the past few hours, not just a sudden change in the CDO.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 96W.INVEST,
-Eric

[calidoug]

This storm, IMO, is not going to miss FL to the West. Those of you in FL should be hoping for MORE N movement, to make the turn happen sooner, and sharper, and just miss the keys and SFL.

Continued WNW movement is not a good thing here.

[Cape Verde]

Thank you for that answer, Eric. I will look for that in the future.<P>What a great forum.

[PTrackerLA]

The outflow of Ivan is still relatively symmetrical whether you go west or noth from the center. As with Lili the outflow didn't go west or east but straight NW into Louisiana indicating where she would move. This is not the same situation at all and I don't anticipate a turn soon.

[artinla]

I got these numbers from the NHC website...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN.shtml?



5am AST Advisory, Sunday September 5th: 987mb

2am AST Advisory #15a, Monday Sep. 6th: 948mb

Even that is a drop of 39mb

[chicagopizza]

Eric-

Thanks for the explanation. I appreciated you clearing that up for me.

BTW-Keep that line far away from me and take it out to sea.

[ericinmia]

*frustrated*

If you watch a long loop of the storm (not the goes 5+ image)...
over many hours now the storm has begun transitioning...
Ivan has not fully transitioned, but has lost much of its symmetry...
I am not posetive if this is going to stick, and am sticking me head on the
block by calling this early, but if it verifies through the next few hours,
then we should see a more northerly turn eventually.

-Eric