Ivan Advisories

[greeng13]

thanks artinla...and jetman...i knew that was a sig. difference...

when the others on this thread are mentioning a drop of pressure in 24 hours are they more speaking of a hurricane that has been around for a while (i.e. current ivan more important) or does that even include the "developmental stages"....(i.e. ivan on the 5-6?)

[Stormsfury]

I'm not saying that Ivan won't eventually turn north ... I just don't see it as soon as guidance continually suggests will occur very shortly ...

Ivan continues to run south and left of guidance, and until we see the pivot (more of a NW turn), the track will have to be shifted a bit left ... and the 12z ECMWF run ... wow, not sure what to make of it just yet ... (getting ready to examine in great detail...) ...

SF

[NorthGaWeather]

I quess its preparing 48 hrs in advance.

[PTrackerLA]

You don't have to get *frustrated* about it. I see what you're seeing, outflow expanding northward and westward... but all I'm saying is I don't think we'll be seeing a NW turn anytime soon. Point it at Miami if you want but I don't think it's going there.

[BensonTCwatcher]

*frustrated*

If you watch a long loop of the storm (not the goes 5+ image)...
over many hours now the storm has begun transitioning...
Ivan has not fully transitioned, but has lost much of its symmetry...
I am not posetive if this is going to stick, and am sticking me head on the
block by calling this early, but if it verifies through the next few hours,
then we should see a more northerly turn eventually.

-Eric

I agree with eric on this. I have observed this many times on well developed storms ahead of a movement. The CCW circulation is feeling the steering. Also look at the synoptics I think we are seeing N movement soon, the question is how long he moves N. This is not the final N movement forecast.

[canegrl04]

One frame wobble does not indicate west.

[btsgmdad]

The Detroit Tigers have a better chance of winning the world series than the GFS verifing.

Hey! The Tigers are a heck of a lot better this year. A couple more pick ups like last year and they will win the AL Central next year.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Mobile mets keeping a tentative eye on Ivan, but still way too early to tell what's on his mind. Should have a better handle on the weekend.

[Matthew5]

When is the next Vortex?

Here is my guest
145 knot flight level winds
934 to 936 millibars?

[MWatkins]

This is precisely the reason that the TPC uses 12 hours of motion and not 3 to determine the initial speed and direction.

Any motion..NW or W...cannot be discerned in 2 to 3 hours.

MW

[Praxus]

I've also read reports that the prisoners escaped from the islands main jail...unconfirmed I think.
-------------------------------------------

* From: CDERA Information Unit <pubinfo AT cdera.org>
* Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2004 22:59:27 GMT

URGENT … URGENT … URGENT … URGENT … URGENT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

SECURITY CHALLENGES IN GRENADA
Non-essential personnel should re-consider travel at this time

Barbados, Sep 08, 2004: 6:30 pm (CDERA) – The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) has received reports of a serious security situation in
Grenada. In response, members of the Regional Security System were deployed and are now on the ground to assist the authorities in maintaining law and order. A second contingent is on its way.

CDERA has also been receiving numerous requests as well as information that many institutions and agencies including commercial interests and media are planning flights into Grenada.

CDERA wishes to advise that only essential personnel can be guaranteed safety of passage at this time and strongly urge other non-essential parties to reconsider travel arrangements to the country until it can be verified that the security situation has been stabilised.

Jeremy Collymore
Coordinator, CDERA

[btsgmdad]

I wonder if we may have to send troops down there again?

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

I'd also add that this indicated NW turn soon. But I am not a Met. either

[frederic79]

Perhaps a northerly turn is coming soon, but one thing is sure. I've created a template with a straight line drawn from the 8AM position out past Jamaica at a 290 degree angle. Most of today Ivan has adhered to this line until the last 5 or 6 frames. Ivan is now moving west and south of the line. Also, this line is well south of Jamaica and the latest NHC track is over north Jamaica. I don't know if this is significant in the long run, but it is certainly a departure from the 295 heading described in the the 5pm discussion.

[Javlin]

I can't buy that N S elondation yet the storm is mass that like anything else has to slow down to turn.The movement of the storm since 8:00a.m. to 5:00p.m. has been a true WNW motion of 292.25' @15.85 mph.Ivan clicked .9'N and 2.2'W a true NW motion is a 45' angle like .9'N and .9'W.
The ridge seems to be holding strong if not Ivan would slow down like Frances did (elongated) and turned W.

[caribepr]

Incredible amount of info on how to help, how to try to contact anyone you know in Grenada, and just about anything else you might want to know on what is happening with IVAN in the islands on stormcarib.com under the Grenada title. I already posted for info on friends and heard they were well in the last hour. The board is doing its usual amazing job of getting local info out into the rest of the world.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I think he will enter the GOM, and the big question is WHERE he enters it. SE Gulf...Florida west coast. 85 degrees...North Central.

[MWatkins]

Hey...here's something to look at from the good folks at CIMMS.

Note the steering flow now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm5.GIF

Note it 6 hours ago:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dlm5-2.GIF

Now...note it 12 hours ago:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dlm5-4.GIF

From each frame...the isotacs (I guess that's what thery are since it's wind analysis) get more and more spread out from 12 hours ago to now.

The flow IS breaking down...the analysis shows it. And it will result in more poleward movement tomorrow.

MW

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah but the lat to lon distance is not equal. Also, I agree withteh mass needing to slow down. It's just that BEFORE it slows it has to BE slowed by something, hence the flattening. Toss a 'mater against a wall...it flattens out no?

[BensonTCwatcher]

good post Mike, I like the color over the wind analyses. Makes it easy to follow for us non-mets. Bottom line, the poleward turn should at least show up in the 11p discussion