Ivan Advisories

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Ixolib
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#1161 Postby Ixolib » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:33 pm

ericinmia wrote:LOL, too bad that map you posted of the "stearing currents is over 12 hours old... from what has occured today, that map is not exactly a good basis for forecasting considering the large charges that have occured in stearing currents!
-Eric


:?: Can you post the new, updated version?
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shimmer
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T Number Likely 6.5 or greater

#1162 Postby shimmer » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:34 pm

For the sake the SWF and the GOM one would hope this is the peak intensity right now. Hope that cooler sea temps or shear will rob it of its strength.
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PurdueWx80
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Pressure DOWN to 938

#1163 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:35 pm

URNT12 KNHC 082311
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/2311Z
B. 13 DEG 19 MIN N
68 DEG 10 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2551 M
D. 35 KT
E. 233 DEG 045 NM
F. 338 DEG 120 KT
G. 240 DEG 008 NM
H. 938 MB
I. 9 C/ 3103 M
J. 19 C/ 3071 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 0809A IVAN OB 26
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 2111Z.
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LCfromFL
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#1164 Postby LCfromFL » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:35 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: Lordy! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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BensonTCwatcher
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#1165 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:36 pm

Man oh Man :eek: :eek:
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#1166 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:36 pm

I knew it!
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#1167 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:36 pm

WOW...

:eek:
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#1168 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:36 pm

So far the shear has had no effect on Ivan. I heard a report that the T number is around 7.
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Canelaw99
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#1169 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:36 pm

:Hug: :eek:
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ColinD
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#1170 Postby ColinD » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:36 pm

:grr:
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nomolos
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#1171 Postby nomolos » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:36 pm

wow...the winds should be up shortly.
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#1172 Postby huricanwatcher » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:37 pm

:cry: pressure dropping and a poleward turn......


:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
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BayouVenteux
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#1173 Postby BayouVenteux » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:38 pm

Ixolib wrote:Can you post the new, updated version?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
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AirmaN
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#1174 Postby AirmaN » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:38 pm

:(
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#1175 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:38 pm

938!!! The winds need to rise shortly. Why aren't they finding them?
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#1176 Postby artinla » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:39 pm

Obviously, line D is a typo..

Max winds at the surface of 35kts?


10 degree temp differential now. Still strengthening!
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#1177 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:39 pm

artinla wrote:Obviously, line D is a typo..

Max winds at the surface of 35kts?


Ignore that. That's the estimate of the winds WHERE THE PLANE IS WHEN THE VORTEX IS ISSUED.
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South Tampa
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938 MB for Ivan

#1178 Postby South Tampa » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:40 pm

New Vortex message has 938 MB 145 mph

heard it on the radio :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :x :x :x :x :x :( :( :( :( :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#1179 Postby BReb » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:40 pm

I'm no expert, but Ivan has CLEARLY been taking a due west course for the last 2 hours or so. If the elongated shape meant preparation for a northward track, I can't see why it would go from WNW to W at the same time it was allegedly starting to feel northward steering pressures. Just doesn't seem to jive with the laws of physics.

Could some of this not be partly the result of shear on the western part of Ivan, due to that exiting ULL, creating a more elongated shape?
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canegrl04
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#1180 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:40 pm

I've got a feeling we're seeing Mitch part 2 :sick:
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