Ivan Advisories

[cycloneye]

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WTNT34 KNHC 082338
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST WED SEP 08 2004
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN INTENSIFIES FURTHER WHILE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...
INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.  A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
 
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO AND 640 MILES...1030 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
 
IVAN HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BUT IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
WILL CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.
 
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.  BONAIRE REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH A FEW
HOURS AGO.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N... 68.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN


[huricanwatcher]

west huh?

[Anonymous]

The wind speed lags behind the pressure drop by a little bit. Like a turbocharger lag time.

[btsgmdad]

How do you hear them on radio?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Let's hope this is a peak. Matter of fact, I'd take the odds if went ahead and got to cat 5 and stayed there for 24 hours. The probability of Ivan at Cat 5 intensity in 72+ hours is much lower

[skysummit]

still moving just north of due west?

[Jetman]

These 131 knots are from 2111z, the latest pressure report from 2311z...

given the 938 mb, I think NHC will go up to 125 kt in the 8 PM Advisory.

[USAwx1]

I'm not saying that Ivan won't eventually turn north ... I just don't see it as soon as guidance continually suggests will occur very shortly ...

Ivan continues to run south and left of guidance, and until we see the pivot (more of a NW turn), the track will have to be shifted a bit left ... and the 12z ECMWF run ... wow, not sure what to make of it just yet ... (getting ready to examine in great detail...) ...

SF

Dont tell that to the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036s.gif

[nomolos]

and i thought i heard somewhere that Ivan is in cooler water for the next 2 days...then they get warmer. is this true?

[MBryant]

Is a falling pressure:
1. a leading indicator of wind speed
2. a lagging indicator of wind speed or
3. associated with wind speed

If the latter, then is it just a matter of finding and getting a good reading regardless of which measurement you find?

[nolecaster]

I'm scared

[mdlemin]

OMG! I think my eyes just popped out after reading that! I pray for those that had been or will be in Ivan's path.

[calidoug]

It is a fallacy that it is less likely for a storm at Cat5 to remain at Cat5 than it is for a weaker storm to intensify to Cat5.

You don't want it to get stronger.

[canegrl04]

That low a pressure should support a cat5.I think the NHc 11pm report will reflect.

Remember Andrew's pressure was 922mb

[MWatkins]

Compare

A. 08/2108Z
B. 13 DEG 16 MIN N
67 DEG 43 MIN W

To

A. 08/2311Z
B. 13 DEG 19 MIN N
68 DEG 10 MIN W

3 mins north
27 mins west

Reducing:

1 mins north for every 9 west...

Close to 278/280. A little more to the west but not due west in the last 2 hours which is extreemly short term motion anyway.

MW

[Brent]

This is very bad. Category 5 is likely.

Poor Jamaica.

[Stormsfury]

It almost looks like the N ATL ridge is trying to extend underneath the weakness left behind in the departing wake of Frances. although the s/w ridging that Frances pumped up out east of it yesterday and last night has faded (and responsible for the unbelievable moisture feed and LLJ in excess of 50 KTS ... responsible for an unbelievable number of warnings in SC for tornadoes yesterday ...)

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/Analysis.gif

Also note, WSW of Ivan, an upper system has closed off as well on that analysis ... and for the time being, a channel is being created for Ivan to go (at least in the short-term) ... I'm NOT downplaying the recurvature idea, just not as soon as the ECMWF/GFS are going with ... maybe not as Extreme as the CMC, but close ...

SF

[Ixolib]

the way the ull is moving rapidly west, why not ivan as well? go west ivan, no one wants you here.

...and speaking of the ULL, Dr. Lyons said Ivan is "pushing it out of the way - and winning". Anyone like to elaborate on that, and how that will impact the westward movement???

[HURAKAN]

If this trend continues tomorrow we will have an extremely dangerous Cat. 5.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Whew that GFS being the holy grail of the models is scary. But on point, we track the center. It can easily move in one direction while the outer edge of a storm begins to feel the "impact" on a steering force. Has anyone ever seen a slow motion frame of a a rubber ball against a wall? The "center" travels in the same direction until the center is acted upon...Netwon's Law