Bonnie Advisories

[Dave C]

Derek, good point about oceanic heat content. I remember with Lily how that was one potential explanation for her weakening as she moved north of 25 lat. in the gulf. Isadore having churned it up good a week earlier.

[tallywx]

Sorry, stormchaser16. The model map won't even load for me. I was simply addressing the "moving westward" comment.

BTW, here's the latest run of the REAL 00z models.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_02.gif

Still towards the FL Panhandle.

[Stormchaser16]

Yes i know, but my point (as opera ghost reinforced) was that there needs to be a gradual turn, the model map posted above just initialized and shot it NE without any W component at all......

[The Dark Knight]

I'm sorry for the confusion guys.... I was in a rush to et this out on the Net.....I issued this map at 8:30PM... These are solely my own opinion on the possible tracks for Bonnie... All of these tracks are assuming that Bonnie stopped now... I am really sorry for any confusion.......

[Stormchaser16]

O ok, i thought they were just really bad models that had no clue what they were doing......

But Bonnie isnt going to stop now, so i would at least indicate some westward component before having it turn, just my 2 cents

[The Dark Knight]

I am truely sorry for any confusion that i started... I'm sorry for the confusion guys.... I was in a rush to get this out on the Net.....I issued this map at 8:30PM... These are solely my own opinion on the possible tracks for Bonnie... All of these tracks are assuming that Bonnie stopped now... I am really sorry for any confusion.......

[Stormchaser16]

I heard you the first time lol

[Derek Ortt]

Lili was more that it was the most disorganized cat 4 I have EVER seen (SW side did not even have hurricane force winds) and the fact that it was sheared big time before landfall

[dixiebreeze]

09/2345 UTC 12.6N 63.1W T2.0/2.0 03 -- Atlantic Ocean
09/2345 UTC 23.3N 89.0W T2.0/2.0 BONNIE -- Atlantic Ocean

[The Dark Knight]

Oh sorry.. I double posted.......

[cycloneye]

Bumping it.

[Stephanie]

TD3 still the most impressive out of the two and has alot more water and time to gather strength than Bonnie. i hope we're not looking at a potential 1 -2 puch for the GOM states.

[Anonymous]

Both systems are on the upswing in organization and apparent intensity. It will be interesting to see what the NHC has to say at 11pm.

I would say everyone from the Tex./LA border, over to Tampa, should be alert and ready to take action, as both of these systems could end up stronger than originally forecast.

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 100033
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
B. 09/2331Z (55)
C. 12.7N/0
D. 62.9W/7
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: D0.5/03HRS -09/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING
A DT OF 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT...PT AGREES.

AODT: T1.8 (CURVED BAND)

LAURENTI


TPNT KGWC 100016
A. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (TWO)
B. 09/2331Z (52)
C. 22.7N/1
D. 89.3W/0
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: D0.5/06HRS -09/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING
A DT OF 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT...PT AGREES.

AODT: T2.0 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

LAURENTI

[SouthernWx]

Opal was a very large, sprawling hurricane in size.....even while only a cat-1. TS Bonnie is extremely small, with a very tight LLC...more reminiscent of how hurricane Andrew (1992) or Iris (2001) were in their formative stages.

If Bonnie were to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane (which is IMO unlikely), it would be much closer in size to hurricane 1975's Eloise as compared to Opal (both were landfalling major Fla panhandle hurricanes).

[opera ghost]

TD3 still the most impressive out of the two and has alot more water and time to gather strength than Bonnie. i hope we're not looking at a potential 1 -2 puch for the GOM states.

I dont' think there's really a way to avoid a 1-2 unless one or both of them fizzle out unexpectedly. We can hope that they go in different places though... and remain small and weak.

[Stormsfury]

Opal was a very large, sprawling hurricane in size.....even while only a cat-1. TS Bonnie is extremely small, with a very tight LLC...more reminiscent of how hurricane Andrew (1992) or Iris (2001) were in their formative stages.

If Bonnie were to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane (which is IMO unlikely), it would be much closer in size to hurricane 1975's Eloise as compared to Opal (both were landfalling major Fla panhandle hurricanes).

Very true ... and furthermore, I'm not expecting Bonnie to stall out as the trough is progged to pick this up ... Bonnie will cross an area where the heat potential is very high, but it would have to put on a come together act like Alex did for anything and conditions probably won't be able to come together like it did for Alex ...

[Dean4Storms]

Dean....

I do not think Bonnie has been underestimated at all....She has been the focus for the last 3-4 days as something that could develop...But the system at the moment for what I am seeing does not look that impressive...But of course since it is so close to landfall in the GOM we should keep focus on her....But..........I am more worried about #3/Charley on what he could become....

Huh? C'mon, NHC and even Derek were skeptical that it even had a LLC which I could easily see this morning. Remember? It passed right over TD status this time and all the global models missed it. How can you say that it was not underestimated?

[vbhoutex]

TD3 still the most impressive out of the two and has alot more water and time to gather strength than Bonnie. i hope we're not looking at a potential 1 -2 puch for the GOM states.

Quite possible for Florida Stephanie. Almost probable, but as is usual only time will tell. TS Bonnie is strong possibility to the FL panhandle(Hold on Mom!!!) and TD3/?Charley tomorrow? could follow but a littel further East, like up the West coast of FL. Way too early to tell, but a definite possibililty on TD3.

[dixiebreeze]

She's looking a bit more lethal in this recent IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg