Earl Advisories

[MGC]

Looking out six days and I see no troughs that will recurve Earl. NHC 5 day forecast puts Earl off the tip of western Cuba. Looks like the GOM will be the hot spot for TC this season.....MGC

[LaBreeze]

I've been reading on other posts that there will be a trough coming in, not as strong as the most recent one, and it probably will pick up Earl. I know that this is far out still and we will just have to wait and see. Is there a stronger thought towards no trough at this time?

[wx247]

I don't see anything right now that would move Earl north at least through 48 hours. It looks to slow down some beyond that time frame. JMHO.

[PurdueWx80]

I was just looking at some ensembles and a few other models...most have a pretty good ridge sitting near the Bahamas and a trough digging into the NE, but not even close to the depth of the current one, and much further east. I think Earl would likely miss that trough and keep following the edge of the ridge. If the ridge ends up east of FL, it will probably stay way south and do something like Mitch did, although it'd move fast and probably end up in the Bay of Campeche. The UKMET takes it to near N'awlins, but it screwed up royally on Charley this far out.

[LaBreeze]

Where is Earl predicted to be in 48 hours?

[wx247]

In the C. Caribbean south of Haiti/Dominican Republic. Most likely just south of that island.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks. I'm not relying on UKMET at this moment. Sorry for the double post folks.

[Stormcenter]

earl could possible be a cane with winds of 145mph upon entering GOM. We're having a discussion about it in chat. Watch out from the Keys to Houston.

I would say that the odds are in Florida's favor that it won't happen.
The Charley track scenario (strong Aug. front) was a unique one that will be difficult to repeat. IMO
I think this MAY be a central GOM problem but hopefully Earl won't make that far west and stay out of the GOM.

[Tip]

Actually, not so much of a strong cold front (it stalled near the Apps) as a deep trough reaching all the way to the gulf.

[PurdueWx80]

Heck yeah it's a strong cold front - dew points are just above 50 degrees all the way to the Gulf and all sorts of record lows have been set from the Gulf States to the Canadian border.

[mahmoo]

I've certainly been enjoying this rather odd, but cool weather, here in Lafayette

[Nimbus]

Looks like a big upper level high rolling down into the caribbean/eastern gulf on the water vapor loop. There is some shear just west of Earl. After he passes through the islands will the shear inhibit development or is the shear forecast to diminish?

[LaBreeze]

Yep, 58 degrees on the Louisiana coast this morning - very strange indeed for mid-August.

[njoynit]

We set a record low of 57 this morning.I have to check calendar to be sure it don't say Oct

[Weatherboy1]

Just thought I'd mention the 12Z run of the NOGAPS model shows Earl moving through the Caribbean, then starting to recurve around Jamaica, moving over the Isle of Youth and Cuba and heading into -- you guessed it -- the SE Gulf by 144 hours. That's all these people need is more wind and rain. Hope it doesn't verify!

Go to this link, public access, then the Tropical Atlantic NGP run to see the loop:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

[adelphi_sky]

Just thought I'd mention the 12Z run of the NOGAPS model shows Earl moving through the Caribbean, then starting to recurve around Jamaica, moving over the Isle of Youth and Cuba and heading into -- you guessed it -- the SE Gulf by 144 hours. That's all these people need is more wind and rain. Hope it doesn't verify!

Go to this link, public access, then the Tropical Atlantic NGP run to see the loop:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

You sure you not gettin that confused with Charley?

[stormandan28]

looks like Florida but seems to be the only one doing this right now.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation

[CoyoteUglyGurl]

PENSACOLA BEACH HERE
WE WHERE SUPPPSE TO GET THAT STORM IT WAS HEADING THIS WAY. THEY SAID IF IT HAD NOT BEEN FOR THE TURN OR THE FRONT WE BE TALKING ABOUT CHARLEY UP HERE IN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA. WE KEEPING A EYE ON EARL, THEY SAID IT COULD BE A MAJOR STORM. i WORRY ABOUT HOW LOW IT IS AND THAT COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENT. SEE WHAT HAPPEN WITH JUST A LITTLE TURN.

kAT

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah, I see a ton of shear ahead of Earl. Right now, that upper level low well to the north is ventilating it, but I think the storm could be slow to develop with it's proximity to land and the upper level winds.

[adelphi_sky]

PENSACOLA BEACH HERE
WE WHERE SUPPPSE TO GET THAT STORM IT WAS HEADING THIS WAY. THEY SAID IF IT HAD NOT BEEN FOR THE TURN OR THE FRONT WE BE TALKING ABOUT CHARLEY UP HERE IN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA. WE KEEPING A EYE ON EARL, THEY SAID IT COULD BE A MAJOR STORM. i WORRY ABOUT HOW LOW IT IS AND THAT COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENT. SEE WHAT HAPPEN WITH JUST A LITTLE TURN.

kAT

Sorta comes to mind that old saying about lightening never striking the same place twice. I will say this. IF Earl hit even within 100 miles of where CHarley hit, wouldn't we be the only people to witness this in our life time? I mean what are the odds? That's almost like a tornado hitting your house, then 7 days later, a tornado hitting it again. The odds must be astronomical.