Frances Advisories

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rbaker

#121 Postby rbaker » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:14 pm

dixie, looks like it needs to wrap all the way around, kinda holding steady, don't know what the inhabiting factor is right now for this not to be up to at least 55-60 mph by now.
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#122 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:14 pm

Got that right. I just hope it is a nice and safe fish.
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#123 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:17 pm

there was a little dry air ahead of it yesterday, now I think it should start to intensify more rapidly.
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#124 Postby James » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:19 pm

Let's see how it flares up overnight.
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#125 Postby hurrmia » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:24 pm

so it frances!!!!!!! what time did their update it??
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#126 Postby hurricanemike » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:26 pm

AFWA T2.0

TPNT KGWC 251845
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
B. 25/1731Z (65)
C. 11.3N/5
D. 40.2W/6
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT:D0.5/15HRS -25/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FINAL T BASED ON PT.

AODT: N/A

ARCHULETTA
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#127 Postby hurricanemike » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:27 pm

Luis based on what?
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#128 Postby TerryAlly » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:32 pm

The ridge that extends from Africa to Barbados (15N 20W to 13N 60W) is contributing to its Frances' strength.

Now the question is whether it will remain strong enough to keep it on a westward track or whether it will weaken and influence Frances to go northward.
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18:00 Tropical Models=Toward the islands.1005 mbs

#129 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:37 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 1800 040826 0600 040826 1800 040827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 39.8W 12.2N 42.5W 13.3N 44.7W 14.3N 46.5W
BAMM 11.5N 39.8W 12.3N 42.1W 13.4N 44.0W 14.3N 45.7W
A98E 11.5N 39.8W 11.8N 42.8W 12.0N 45.8W 12.3N 48.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 1800 040828 1800 040829 1800 040830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 48.3W 16.2N 51.1W 15.9N 54.0W 15.1N 58.1W
BAMM 15.2N 47.3W 16.1N 49.8W 15.9N 52.0W 15.7N 55.4W
A98E 12.4N 51.2W 12.6N 55.4W 12.7N 59.5W 12.8N 64.4W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 36.8W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 33.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM

Well here are the latest plots for now tropical storm Frances and the models dont pass it more north near 16n as earlier they were in the 20n range.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#130 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:39 pm

I'm thinking Frances will blow up as big as Charley, if not bigger, before she's over.
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caneman

Re: 18:00 Tropical Models=Toward the islands.1005 mbs

#131 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 1800 040826 0600 040826 1800 040827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 39.8W 12.2N 42.5W 13.3N 44.7W 14.3N 46.5W
BAMM 11.5N 39.8W 12.3N 42.1W 13.4N 44.0W 14.3N 45.7W
A98E 11.5N 39.8W 11.8N 42.8W 12.0N 45.8W 12.3N 48.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 1800 040828 1800 040829 1800 040830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 48.3W 16.2N 51.1W 15.9N 54.0W 15.1N 58.1W
BAMM 15.2N 47.3W 16.1N 49.8W 15.9N 52.0W 15.7N 55.4W
A98E 12.4N 51.2W 12.6N 55.4W 12.7N 59.5W 12.8N 64.4W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 36.8W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 33.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM


That track is starting to get close to you Luis.
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#132 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:44 pm

Mike the model heading is TS Frances.
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#133 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:44 pm

Yes.

It's initialized at 35 kt(40 mph), up to 50 kt(60 mph) in 24 hours, 63 kt(73 mph) in 48 hours and 79 kt(almost 90 mph) in 96 hours.
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#134 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:45 pm

I think this one will end up at least as a cat 2 or 3. We need to watch this one very closely.
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#135 Postby hurrmia » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:45 pm

i look for update their none post by nhc yet at 3:45pm
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#136 Postby Three Blind Mice » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:46 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 1800 040826 0600 040826 1800 040827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 39.8W 12.2N 42.5W 13.3N 44.7W 14.3N 46.5W
BAMM 11.5N 39.8W 12.3N 42.1W 13.4N 44.0W 14.3N 45.7W
A98E 11.5N 39.8W 11.8N 42.8W 12.0N 45.8W 12.3N 48.6W
LBAR 11.5N 39.8W 12.1N 42.7W 13.2N 45.4W 14.2N 47.9W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 1800 040828 1800 040829 1800 040830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 48.3W 16.2N 51.1W 15.9N 54.0W 15.1N 58.1W
BAMM 15.2N 47.3W 16.1N 49.8W 15.9N 52.0W 15.7N 55.4W
A98E 12.4N 51.2W 12.6N 55.4W 12.7N 59.5W 12.8N 64.4W
LBAR 15.0N 50.0W 16.3N 52.7W 16.4N 55.1W 16.2N 58.2W
SHIP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 79KTS
DSHP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 36.8W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 33.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM
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#137 Postby hurrmia » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:49 pm

you link for alex not td6/frances!!!!!!!!! :roll:
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#138 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:51 pm

Disregard the link as we had problems with the server in past weeks and it has to be fixed.
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#139 Postby hurricanemike » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:52 pm

Oh yeah...that means it will be upgraded @ 21Z.
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#140 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:57 pm

hurrmia wrote:i look for update their none post by nhc yet at 3:45pm


5:00pm EDT is update time. They won't do a special update for something that is days from land.
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