Ivan Advisories

[Innotech]

:Hug:

sinceI was being a bit of an asshole earlier Ill give you a hug *hug

[Guest]

I know a lot of these but please spell out TUTT.

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough ...

Holy cow I can hardly say that w/o spitting on my monitor. And isn't the storms core looking abit more circular now?

[cane_weary]

Houstoner
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:25 pm Post subject:
Those models are absolutely out of their minds. For this to verify Ivan would have to INSTANTLY turn NW. They are far, far to east.

that's not unheard of, look at the track of hazel

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/images/c ... l_1954.jpg

[MBryant]

How can the models so consistantly have Ivan move counterintuitively? They have him moving "uphill" into the Bermuda High or against the prevailing winds in the steering currents. There's a building high Northwest of him which will probably offset any weakening of the Bermuda high over Florida.

Intuition would support a continued westerly or west northwesterly movement and an eventual move southwest into Central America.

Only one model has this tract which seems to make the most sense. What am I missing?

[Anonymous]

So your predicting this thing to just go ahead and plow through the high to its north?

[JenBayles]

Uuhhhhhhhh....... from a totally stupid blonde newbie seeking an education, could someone please explain exactly what a "T number" is and what is the significance of the number? Thanks much!

[Anonymous]

I am telling you guys, Ivan will pass south of 15N-75W, and the models will be doing flip flops. Watch and see.

[cycloneye]

SF I agree with you about that position 14.5n-71w being very important.If it passes south of that position then all the models are way wrong in this latest run and those are the globals and the tropicals.

[Brent]

If he misses Florida to the east, I'll eat the keyboard, LOL

I'm starting to even doubt a South Florida hit. He's simply WAY TOO FAR SOUTH. He might even pass south of Jamaica safely at this point.

[fsuprime]

weren't we all waiting for a huge shift north with Frances?

[Nimbus]

When they reinitialize the models a little further south we will see if it makes a difference. Ivan is still moving pretty fast so he may also outrun some of the earlier guidance.

[marc21688]

ANYTHING is possible with a hurricane, and considering they are the hardest to predict, no one is off the hook yet. It's way to early! The next 48 hours will be crucial.

[tronbunny]

Frankly, I've seen a huge trend for all of these models to go "out to lunch" lately.
Either there's some bad synoptics, or someones feeding them crack (we can only hope)

[Stormsfury]

Well, in 12 hours, the guidance (12z 9/9/04) ... the SOUTHERNMOST indicates that Ivan will be at 14.5ºN, 71.2ºW ...

I'm willing to bet MONEY (that I don't have until Friday ... ), that Ivan crosses SOUTH of that at 71ºW ...

[USAwx1]

I'm not saying that Ivan won't eventually turn north ... I just don't see it as soon as guidance continually suggests will occur very shortly ...

Ivan continues to run south and left of guidance, and until we see the pivot (more of a NW turn), the track will have to be shifted a bit left ... and the 12z ECMWF run ... wow, not sure what to make of it just yet ... (getting ready to examine in great detail...) ...

SF

Dont tell that to the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036s.gif

The GFS is depicting that a weakness left behind in Frances' wake is that far reaching to grab Ivan more NW is interesting ... a s/w ridge builds in behind it, but quickly a trough kinks in the Central US, thusly creating a weakness in between the Central US ridge and N ATL ridge ... the GFS also appears to initialize a small s/w in the 500mb which shears out in the SR ... I don't know if it's the one to NE of Ivan or not ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The GFS therafter is having some problems figuring out how much of an interaction there is between ivan and the trough coming across the county and into the NW atlantic toward the beginning of the week. In other words whether the trough catches Ivan and causes him to re-curve or there is little interaction between the two at all. But overall i dont buy the GFS solutions of the past few runs.

Furthermore, b/c most of the tropical models are run off the GFS initial conditions, we can expect further problems WRT the track which will be compounded by the fact that Ivan remains at a low latitude.

[LeeJet]

Sure it can go south of Jamaica...then it can go NNE and still hit SF.

[PurdueWx80]

Sure it can go south of Jamaica...then it can go NNE and still hit SF.

San Francisco?? Sounds like a deleted scene from The Day After Tomorrow.

[hurricanemike]

Ignore those models...Ivan will never make it that far N/E. That is not even agreement with what is going on aloft. Very bad initialization.... i.e. "Garbage in, Garbage Out".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

[ericinmia]

Here is the link to the loop...
This is the general 250-850 steering flow... it encompasses most all the steering currents.
Look at what occurs with the large pronounced extension of the high just over the east fla waters.
This loop shows the steering currents for the past 5 days, not the future... however through viewing this, it shows the high to Ivan's north that was assisting him in retaining a westward motion has and is moving out, and weakening greatly.
This should now allow for a much more pronounced northward course in the near future. This may be what the models were picking up on.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 5java.html
-Eric

[LaBreeze]

Well, at least we can say that it will not be a Western GOM event, right? Isn't there some certainty to that?