Charley Advisories

[Brent]

Hurricane Charley Discussion Number 11

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004

data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Charley has changed
little during the past few hours. The minimum pressure has been
oscillating around 992 and 993 mb. Flight-level peak wind was 76
knots with a small closed eyewall of 8 N mi. Initial intensity
remains at 65 knots. Since the outflow has improved...the shear is
low...and the fact that the hurricane is forecast to move over an
area of high oceanic heat content...intensification is
forecast...in agreement with SHIPS models. The GFDL is more
aggressive and makes Charley a 106-knot hurricane as it crosses
western Cuba.
There has been no significant change in the track. The hurricane is
moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 15 knots. A
gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected to begin soon
as a large mid to upper level trough becomes established in the
Gulf of Mexico. This is consistent with the consensus of the global
models and very close to the GFDL.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/0300z 17.8n 78.7w 65 kt
12hr VT 12/1200z 19.6n 80.9w 75 kt
24hr VT 13/0000z 22.5n 82.3w 85 kt...nearing Cuba
36hr VT 13/1200z 25.5n 82.5w 90 kt...over water
48hr VT 14/0000z 29.5n 81.5w 50 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/0000z 38.0n 77.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 16/0000z 46.5n 68.0w 35 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 17/0000z 51.5n 53.0w 25 kt...extratropical

[Rainband]

Good news for my area

[cycloneye]

No basic change in the track guidance at 11 PM .By the 5 AM advisory the data from the Gulfstream jet will be in so by then more will be known about the future track.

[Aquawind]

Dang not much track shift at all..UGH..


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 20258W.gif

[The Dark Knight]

We'll wait till 5am

[tropicsgal]

I am new to the board and i'm not sure if i'm posting in the right area. If not i apologize. I have a sister in Orlando and am wonderinng how close Charley will come to this area.

[The Dark Knight]

It may pass right over her....

[bahamaswx]

It's the right area. As for how close it will come... it's still hard to say. Might pass right over her, might hit the panhandle. It's a toss up right now.

[The Dark Knight]

True.....

[AtlanticWind]

Could be the turn to the northwest than north that the NHC forecasts has started

[Wnghs2007]

No.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes? He he!

[LaBreeze]

I wouldn't be surprised

[Wnghs2007]

The turn has not begin the storm is still traveling at 285 motion. and is slowing down. Possibly enough to miss the trough but I wont discuss that now. Model Guidence is far north of the NHC track. But with consistancy the nhc wants to keep the same track and if the want to do that let them. That is not a dis to the NHC.


Also as you will not the trough is still in the NW Gulf and has no influence on Current stering patterns in the NW Carribean.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 120404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0404Z
B. 17 DEG 50 MIN N
78 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1321 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 295 DEG 47 KT
G. 215 DEG 18 NM
H. 989 MB
I. 18 C/ 1520 M
J. 21 C/ 1519 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 17
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NE QUAD 0209Z.

[tropicsgal]

I sure hope it doesn't come anywhere near the FWB area. I remember Opal 1995, never want to experience that again. Whereever it goes, my thoughts are with those who have to deal with Charley.

[Aquawind]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 120305
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING AROUND 992 AND 993 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND WAS 76
KNOTS WITH A SMALL CLOSED EYEWALL OF 8 N MI. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. SINCE THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN
AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODELS. THE GFDL IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CHARLEY A 106-KNOT HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON
AS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL.

FORECASTER AVILA



More north of west than before..

[Aquawind]

Looks like it on IR as well..

[NorthGaWeather]

More like 290 at 15 MPH. Not the beginning of the turn.

[HouTXmetro]

[quote="NorthGaWeather"]More like 290 at 15 MPH. Not the beginning of the turn.[/quote

Well it is moving faster, so maybe the trough will catch it.