Charley Advisories

[weatherSnoop]

tropics...you have your own girl to deal with...I realize the differences, but do not let down your guard...my thoughts with you as well

[Wnghs2007]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 120305
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING AROUND 992 AND 993 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND WAS 76
KNOTS WITH A SMALL CLOSED EYEWALL OF 8 N MI. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. SINCE THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN
AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODELS. THE GFDL IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CHARLEY A 106-KNOT HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON
AS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL.

FORECASTER AVILA



More north of west than before..

The NHC over analyzed a slight jump to the north. It has since fallen .3 N since the advisory. So no it has not started no turn. Also good job Dan. You are correct 290 is the motion currently as indicated by latest vortex.

[tropicsgal]

I appreciate your opinion and you are right, i do remember Opal was to take a path to Louisiana and took a NE turn right at us. Will watch very closely.

[Derecho]

The NHC over analyzed a slight jump to the north. It has since fallen .3 N since the advisory. So no it has not started no turn. Also good job Dan. You are correct 290 is the motion currently as indicated by latest vortex.

Sorry, you're flat out wrong. It hasn't fallen anywhere since the last advisory. The new VORTEX statement is north of the advisory.

Three VORTEX statements for Charley tonight.

Motion between the first two: 292 degrees

Motion between the last two: 306 degrees.

Them's the facts. It's gradually curving more Northwards.

[Thunder44]

Think that's amazing look at this:

URNT14 KNHC 120440
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01167 10803 12510 11616 02013
02168 20801 22510 21715 02012
03170 30799 32508 31715 35010
04171 40797 42504 41716 99005
05173 50795 52500 51716 99005
06175 60793 62488 61915 33017
07176 70791 72460 71616 31034
MF176 M0791 MF047
OBS 01 AT 0331Z
OBS 07 AT 0359Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01180 10788 12448 11515 12072
02182 20785 22480 21717 14065
03184 30784 32495 31815 12051
04185 40782 42509 41814 13056
05187 50780 52516 51814 13047
06189 60778 62520 61815 13042
07191 70776 72526 71715 13044
MF180 M0788 MF098
OBS 01 AT 0409Z
OBS 07 AT 0439Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
RMK AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 21

98kt flight level winds being reported!

[Derecho]

It has fallen. That is just a bump. THERE IS NO CURVE. Sorry you cant be wright always. It is moving 290 and that is it.
It has moved south . 3 N unless you cant read

Nope, the problem is you don't know how to read a VORTEX statement.

However, it's a COMMONLY made error, so don't feel bad.

The lat and long in a vortex statement is given in MINUTES OF ARC.

There are 60 of them in a degree.

HOWEVER, NHC gives advisory positions in TENTHS OF A DEGREE.

The problem is you misread the 404Z Vortex Statement of 17 degrees 50 minutes North as 17.5 degrees North.

17 degrees, 50 minutes North is actually 17.83 North (using tenths of a degree.)

And I've used an automated webpage to calculate the movement between vortex statements; the 292 and then 306 is quite accurate.

[dixiebreeze]

at landfall:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1206 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA:

CHARLOTTE DE SOTO
LEE MANATEE
SARASOTA

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND WHICH
INCLUDES CHARLOTTE HARBOR

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SPECIFIED AREA OF THE WATCH USUALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. DURING A
HURRICANE WATCH...PREPARE TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR
FAMILY AND PROPERTY IN CASE A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHARLEY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARING FOR THE STORM.

GROCERY STORE MAY SELL OUT OF ITEMS SOON. STOCK UP ON...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
CANNED OR DRIED FOOD AND DRINKING WATER
FIRST AID SUPPLIES
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
CASH...CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS

AROUND THE HOUSE...
STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE
SECURE WINDOWS WITH SHUTTERS... BOARDS ETC
BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING
MOVE BOAT TO A SAFE LOCATION
TRIM LARGE TREES THAT COULD FALL ON HOUSE
MAKE SURE VALUABLE PAPERS ARE SECURE

MAKE RESERVATIONS NOW. PLAN TO EVACUATE IF YOU LIVE...
IN A MOBILE HOME
ON THE COAST
IN A LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREA
IN A HIGH RISE

IF YOU MUST EVACUATE TO A PUBLIC SHELTER REMEMBER TO BRING...
FIRST AID KIT
MEDICINE
BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS
TOILETRIES
CHANGE OF CLOTHES
BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND EXTRA BATTERIES
FLASHLIGHT
SLEEPING BAGS OR BLANKETS
IDENTIFICATION
VALUABLE PAPERS
CASH
GAMES

REMEMBER...PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN PUBLIC SHELTERS.

IF YOU ARE STAYING AT HOME...
TURN REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM COLD
TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS
UNPLUG SMALL APPLIANCES
FILL STERILIZED JUGS AND BOTTLES WITH WATER FOR DRINKING
FILL BATH TUB AND CONTAINERS WITH WATER FOR SANITARY
PURPOSES

WHEN WINDS BECOME STRONG...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
REMAIN IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE FIRST FLOOR
CLOSE ALL INTERIOR DOORS
SECURE AND BRACE EXTERIOR DOORS.

PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE YOUR HOME SHOULD BE STARTED NOW WHILE THE
WEATHER IS STILL GOOD. IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO WORK OUTSIDE SOON.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR...AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE CHARLEY MAKES LANDFALL ON FRIDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. CHARLEY IS
FORECAST TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
LANDFALL...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 MPH AROUND THE CENTER.

...RAINFALL INFORMATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE MODERATE URBAN AND RIVER FLOODING.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGIN MOVING
ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST
OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY.

[Aquawind]

Wow I can imagine that is common alrighty..Thanks for clarifying that Derecho..

[Guest]

he is beginning to kick it

[Guest]

you are correct derecho regaridn the mis reading of the Lat Long....

but the turn has NOT begun at alll... For example IF there was No deep trough and charley had crossed into the central Caribbean at 275 by the tme he would reach 80 Long .... his movement would probably be 290-300

[obxhurricane]

Derecho is on point here guys. Good work Derecho!

[SouthernWx]

Yep...Charley's circulation is clearing Jamaica's high terrain and moving toward open water and higher sst heat content. Only question now is how intense will it become...

Here's a detailed sst map....note the sst's near the projected path of Charley.
I also saw reports this evening from WSFO Tampa of current surf temps of 88° at Clearwater Beach and 87° at Naples....there's plenty of high octane all the way to the beaches.
http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp3.htm

[Guest]

30 hrs ago posted my expectations that if Charley does make a wider more west turn and hence landfall up by Tampa or further North of that.... for him to reach CAT 4 status ...

at the time I put that at 25% chance. Increase that to 45% based on what I am seeing on Satellite and the favorable NW caribbean clmo...

That doesnt mean he will be a 4 at landfall... for if he goes too far North he might run into cooler SSTs b/c of Bonnie...

[SouthernWx]

Yep...Charley's circulation is clearing Jamaica's high terrain and moving toward open water and higher sst heat content. Only question now is how intense will it become...

Here's a detailed sst map....note the sst's near the projected path of Charley.
I also saw reports this evening from WSFO Tampa of current surf temps of 88° at Clearwater Beach and 87° at Naples....there's plenty of high octane all the way to the beaches.
http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp3.htm

[bahamaswx]

I don't think it's that common; they clearly say 17 DEG 50 MIN N.

[Anonymous]

Actually, it seems the center did jog a bit north, as its slight SW of the western Jamaican coast when it was a bit farther south earlier (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html). Still no BIG turn towards Florida happening now. Still my eyes probably decieve me. That ULL to its west is getting stronger, might that slow Charlie down??

[Stormcenter]

Actually, it seems the center did jog a bit north, as its slight SW of the western Jamaican coast when it was a bit farther south earlier (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html). Still no BIG turn towards Florida happening now. Still my eyes probably decieve me. That ULL to its west is getting stronger, might that slow Charlie down??

Or will Charly follow it (upper low)to the west. I love suspense!

[bahamaswx]

It's definitely not helping him any. You can clearly see the shear restricting outflow on his western side... looks like he's running into a brick wall.

[Anonymous]

I would think an ULL would help Charlie's outflow...It is strengthening according to TWC, pressure down.

[GNWeather]

2am Charley is at 85MPH now! Getting stronger

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120552
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING EARLY THURSDAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND ON THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY THURSDAY.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...23 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. OUTER RAIN BANDS OF CHARLEY
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CHARLEY HAS STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 85 MPH...135 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA
OVERNIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN